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tombo82685 last won the day on March 16

tombo82685 had the most liked content!

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About tombo82685

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    Home: Gilbertsville, PA Work: Wayne, PA

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  1. Icon was a whiff from city on nw, south and east get some precip
  2. the low placement of the ukie looks close to that of the euro at 0z. Euro at 0z, didn't get really anything into the city with the 2nd storm
  3. Even if this does come north a bit, .3 qpf over 8 hrs isn't going to do anything during the day this time of year.
  4. While that is true, this setup is different. Most of the nw trends are due to models amplifying the flow better. The reason why this is getting caved up is because you have a buzzsaw sitting above Maine. That needs to relax, if that does so, then you will see a shift north. If not it will keep getting shunted south and the vort will keep shearing out. You are is def better than here. But If I was in i78 area on north I think it's a low chance for them for the first wave.
  5. My only guess as to why the ggem has all that qpf is may some sort of response to the ULL energy swinging through. Either that or some sort of IVT. I would give it a low chance of verifying honestly.
  6. yup, it trended towards other models. It wasn't nearly as slow or amplified as 0z. Still drops some qpf as you mentioned. For the first wave it looks like other models, sharp cutoff north of tpk. Unless we see a tick north, wouldn't expect much north of tpk. Best accumulations will be south of m/d line. De and south jersey could do well.
  7. you're grasping alright, thats for sure lol
  8. I can't tell where they cut off, the eps just keep it going, there is no stop. I mean should we go with 6z wed, would think wave 1 is done by then
  9. Look at 0z ggem and gfs. Same ridge axis spot, only difference is ggem is much stronger.
  10. Well the wavelengths in late March shorten more so compared to winter. So if you have a better ridge it would do the work.
  11. If I was south of philly I’d be feeling pretty good for something from wave 1. North of tpk May not have much of anything if that first wave doesn’t bump north a little
  12. O I agree it def does have bigger upside. I just don’t think we will be able turn it up the coast. Would like to see a better ridge out west. It still looks kind flattish to me.
  13. Still think best chance of precip is with that first piece of energy, just think that 2nd piece goes out under us. I would tend to think the first piece of energy would muck up the baroclinic zone as I stated before and would keep this south of us. We will see what 12z does.
  14. Yea it's heck of an improvement from 12z run. Flow bends back pretty good, and closes ull off below us but it's just a little to late. Need another shift nw and it would probably be a good hit. Ggem was a bit more amplified. EPS should be darn interesting when they come out with this improved look
  15. The ggem is a big hit but has thermal issues. Well over 1” qpf. Not sure if it’s strictly wave with maybe wave 2 infused in it too.