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tombo82685

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tombo82685 last won the day on January 17

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About tombo82685

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    Spotter ID MTPA-129
  • Birthday 08/26/1985

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    Home: Gilbertsville, PA Work: Wayne, PA

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  1. Gefs mean is 2-2.5 for Philly so I guess the 5” is a bit of an outlier on the op
  2. Yup, 5” is my ban post for philly. I would pay though to see Philly at 5 and Paul struggle to get 2
  3. Probably was going to get started tomorrow mornkng since it doesn’t start till noon or later
  4. yea took them down a bit, solely cause it's a good bit drier this run. Meanwhile gfs has abundance of qpf everywhere
  5. that 37 most likely is a night time high as temps rise. I think you get above freezing but won't be till later at night
  6. This isn't a torch pattern being shown on ensembles, at least yet it isn't. It's also not a shut out pattern for snowfall we are just going to need a bit more luck on our side.
  7. The super AAM look I think has some part to do with the big amplitude of the mjo into the WPAC but not 100% sure of that. But the pv is a real issue how the cold is just literally shut off from the US and the pac flow can come in
  8. at this point I say bring it, I'm about over this YAWNter.
  9. This is what I mean by the pv not helping us and shutting the door also on cold. When we get cold shots from the pv it usually looks like this with ridge in AK or over in Scand, or both at the same time. This was back in 2014 in early jan feb 2015 nov of this year current cold shot see the common theme? Pv is oriented vertically and the deep greens are on our side. now look at the forecast by the gefs down the road, no bueno at all. All the cold anoms are on the other side of the globe. Combine that with the super nino AAM look, with a strong pv that is coupled with the troposphere and yea the hope for a good end of jan and start of feb is fading fast. Until that pv orientation changes or we weaken the AAM, im selling on any sustained cold
  10. The eps last night had some positive moves but today, the door shut on that. Just a bad look if you want cold and snow. While it's not se ridge galore, at least not yet just looks like a lot of pacific airmass thats just shutting the doors to any cold up north. Also, the way how the pv is positioned isn't helping either as it shuts the door to cold as well.
  11. yea, can thank the robust west pac forcing for that. Basically giving a nino on roids look
  12. Classic example of counting all 3 hrs as sleet even though the sleet look only occurs during last hour shorter. But the nam blasting the mid levels is an issue to me and why I’m not going to high look euro and gfs have
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