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tombo82685

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tombo82685 last won the day on November 11

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About tombo82685

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  • Birthday 08/26/1985

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    Home: Gilbertsville, PA Work: Wayne, PA

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  1. welp, going to be wrong on this pattern bringing snow. Granted we got our first flakes today but I was thinking something a bit more that would accumulate. I guess richmond says thanks, since they got an inch of snow today
  2. The 10-15 day period looks interesting on the EPS, I would say more middle to later part of this period. Granted we are way out here, so this will change. Looking at it right now it's a pretty decent setup for a stormy maybe wintry storm for someone in the east. My only concern would be cold air availability. But we have a split flow in the jet, northern stream bringing the cold and southern jet bringing the disturbances. You can also see we have a legit -nao here as well as 50/50 low to a degree. Can see the below normal hgts in the south indicating a disturbance tracking out of the southwest.
  3. The pac firehose is going to occur, but it won't be a torch here. I'm still thinking we get another brief cool period around Thanksgiving period
  4. meanwhile down around richmond they are getting 1" per hr rates
  5. its actually pretty remarkable how similar this years sst are to last year outside of enso region
  6. last year at this time it wasn't a modoki though, warmer anoms were in the east pac. Not disagreeing that modoki fades, but we really never had a true modoki look last year atleast this late.
  7. Currently yes it’s modoki, but down the line it may go basin wide since warmest sun surface temps are in eastern pac.
  8. That COD I'm selling on unless its recognizing break down of kelvin wave then refires a legit mjo wave towards phase 4 or so. But I think this waves continues to go
  9. Yea, that I can see in the future with all the warm water in subsurface. Anything to stir that up and bring it to the surface will turn it more basin wide
  10. I dunno, looking at current sst, this still looks like a Modoki to me. Looks like warmest waters are stacked up out around the dateline
  11. Would not shock me if we get a SSW in December esp if we get an amplified mjo through phases 4-6. Seems like last year that was the trigger that just started things and looking in the past, seems like there is some correlation to when the MJO goes through IO into phases 3-5 it starts the process in years where the PV is susceptible to a ssw I can only go back to 1989 up to 2012 in terms of looking at MJO plots, I didn't look at any SSW that occurred in early March as it's impacts wouldn't of mattered. Since 89 we had a SSW in 89, 95, 01,04, 06, 08, 09, 10,13,18,19. I don't have the data for 13,18,19 but I do know last year had a strongly amped phase 4/5 mjo in later Dec Out of all those dates, looks like 95 and 2010 were the only one to not have an mjo pass in those phases we start with 89, SSW mid feb, we get an mjo pass in phase 4/5 late feb. 01 ssw in mid feb, mjo phases 4/5 late jan into early feb 04, ssw in early jan, mjo passes phases 4/5 in mid dec 06, ssw in later jan, mjo passes 4/5 in mid jan 08 ssw in mid to late feb, mjo passes phases 4/5 in early feb 09, ssw in late jan, mjo passes 4/5 in late jan
  12. Gotta see how this progresses, should have a good idea if the gefs are on crack or not once we approach Thanksgiving week. The wave 1 displacement of the pv being shown by them is tremendous. So much so, it really kicks the pv in the but. We go from record strong to very weak with some members starting to get down towards wind reversal. This could have big implications for late december into January if this does occur. You can see the gefs continue by day 16 to just show a ton of warmth right over the pole. Big wave 1 hit coming, as wave 2 falls of heres the temp anomalies off gefs for strat. This all comes from robust ridging in Siberia, (low sea ice+above normal snow cover response?) Then we can see the response to the zonal winds of the pv just fall off the cliff
  13. Modelling has really slashed qpf amounts over the last 12 hrs. Wonder if there really is a widespread changeover to some snow. Or do we just get a lucy pulls the football out
  14. Also to note, this isn't a true MJO wave, this is a kelvin wave. Can see it being pictured here and also the speed is kind of giving it away too as it's flying right now through phases.
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