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Showing most liked content since 03/18/2017 in all areas

  1. 20 points
    I know I haven't been posting too much, been busy with life lately.. Last night i proposed to my gf, and thankfully, she said yes!!!
  2. 20 points
  3. 17 points
  4. 16 points
    I took the plunge, but this is what happened when you follow the nam
  5. 13 points
  6. 13 points
    So times are a changing. We currently right now have a very zonal flow (flow is west to east) You can see that from this map. When the flow is zonal like this it is very easy to see why we aren't cold. The air is coming straight from the Pacific. Note, that even though we do have a -nao signature, it's displaced to far north and also the air in Canada, while cold is of Pacific origin. Also note, do to the zonal flow, all the cold air is bottled up north of the border. You need amplification in the pattern or a further south -nao to force the cold south. This zonal flow is also connected well with phase 4 MJO which shows a very flat flow/ridging. (Above) current green anomalies showing the tropical forcing pushing out of the IO region and towards Indonesia This zonal flow though will not last and we can trace the pattern shift back to Asia with a strong closed low that I have marked X. Note the looping feature, the wave break from this disturbance gets the ball rolling in the Pacific with pumping a ridge out ahead of it. The ridging caused from the wavebreak becomes a very stable feature as each each low on the wave train in the pacific only reinforces it. As we get further down the road in the 10-15 day period, the MJO also starts supporting a west coast ridge/east coast trough. While the robust convection currently wanes, the area of forcing still continues to move towards the dateline and then the maritime continent and Africa. The tropical forcing of phases 7->2 take the rest of Dec and into early Jan for it to run it's course. So that is also supporting a persistent trough signal in the east for the rest of DEC into the first week of January. Now a result of a wavebreak in Asia pumping up the heights into Alaska and the West Coast and then later on the MJO signal backing that up, we get this look. This is what we call meridonal flow. Basically flow that is more north to south representing an amplified pattern. Unlike the zonal flow you can clearly see where the air is coming straight from. The amplitude allows for the cold air to come south. This would set up below normal temperatures and would increase snow/ice chances. Below is the day 10 ensemble forecast off the EPS. This h5 map is basically the holy grail for any fan of cold and wintry weather. You have a +pna to give you the amplitude in the pattern to allow shortwaves to strengthen and to send the cold air south. The -nao slows the pattern in the Atlantic down blocking in areas of low pressure and high pressure. You also have a -AO which displaces cold anomalies that are usually found at the pole south into the mid latitudes. This is another source for bringing cold air south. Furthermore, due to the h5 configuration of an Aleutian low and Siberian high, this is a classic wave 1 disruption in the Stratosphere which we can see below. Wave 1 hits on the Stratospheric polar vortex are a good signal that cold air is on the move south. With that being said, the MJO forcing progression into cold phases and the continued hits on the Stratospheric PV Colder than normal December is gaining some ground. If these Ensemble outputs are correct snow chances are going to go up.
  7. 12 points
    Here are some pictures from my back window this morning, moving from that early bluish first light to full-on side lighting from the rising sun... Went out on the deck for a few minutes, nice crisp morning, seems that more birds are around in the morning already, just gorgeous. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
  8. 12 points
    3:00 pm Snow 29 degrees 2.9" Bumble is living large today
  9. 12 points
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  13. 11 points
  14. 11 points
    Issued my first blizzard warning today.
  15. 11 points
    No worries. Everything still looks good
  16. 11 points
    Sunset in the Pocs over frozen lake.
  17. 11 points
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  19. 11 points
    3.75" on top of my van... still sitting at 31 I was pretty mopey this morning looking at overcast skies, but this really puts me in the seasonal mood.
  20. 11 points
  21. 11 points
    Eclipse chase report: After some tough travel logistics as detailed here, my original plan was on target to make the drive north from Boulder CO into WY, exact position to be determined by cloud cover (but hoping to skew east for later drive to Mount Rushmore). We hit the road at about 4:45am, about 15-30 min later than I had hoped but not bad for getting a family of five out the door... Wanted to stay off I-25 for a portion of the drive just out of preference, which probably cost me another 20-30 min. I thought I would have plenty of time but then when we got to I-25 the traffic was pretty heavy. Followed alternate routes per Google Maps for awhile until finally hopping on I-25 still somewhere south of Cheyenne, alternating between moving and nearly bumper to bumper (especially when passing a vehicle stopped on the shoulder and a Denver media vehicle parked alongside the road). It was probably about 7am when we were passing through Cheyenne, had to decide whether to go due north toward Glendo or northeast toward Torrington. Although the general forecast was for less cloud coverage as you moved west, with the Cheyenne AFD mentioning better conditions west of a line that included Torrington, everything was looking pretty good, we had NW winds behind a surface front, and the edge of totality was somewhat closer in that direction, so I decided on the Torrington route to get off I-25 and stay more east. Route 85 traffic was horrible and I was starting to wonder whether I would make it, although I had over three hours to go 100 miles. Finally got into the path of totality near Veteran WY, continued on to Torrington, used the rest rooms at Arby's, and went enough outside of town to pull off on a quiet side road across from one farm house literally the minute the partial eclipse was about to start. By the time we got our glasses on, the first tiny chunk of the sun could be seen to have been covered. When that last ember of orange disappeared and everything in our eclipse glasses had faded to black, we removed them and there before us was the most stunning sight of a black disc, like a black hole, with streamers of white light pouring out all around, and a couple of orange flares visible from the bottom right quadrant. I tell you, it was such a shocking, awe-inspiring sight, like a window into the universe had opened, like we were seeing God Himself revealed, and I don't mind admitting that it was so overwhelming, almost like a spiritual experience, that my eyes welled up with tears - which unfortunately blurred my vision for a bit ;-) It did not turn completely dark as I expected, it was like the time right before dark where you can still see an orange glow low in the sky. I didn't want to focus too much on that and miss the eclipse itself, but wished I had taken one more moment to notice whether there was a 360 degree sunset glow as I had read about, but it was all just so overwhelming, just too much to take in at once. Our area was supposed to have 2 minutes of totality, it seemed shorter but of course it would, with something so amazing. I wish we had time to have gotten further north and closer to the centerline but the difference was only 30 seconds so I guess I can't get too worked up about that. When the first orange flash of sun reappeared, it was the "diamond ring" I had read about, it seemed more pronounced then when the sun disappeared (although neither time did the "ring" portion go all around in a complete circle). We put our glasses back on but did not stay for the entire anti-climactic return of the sun. Overall an incredible experience and worth all the trouble, time and money to get there in my opinion. I can see why people become eclipse chasers. And the experience felt so similar to Plains storm chasing in a lot of ways, especially being out in that part of the country. I didn't take any pics, just wanted to enjoy it, and had read that cameras don't do a good job of capturing the streamers of light pouring out from around the moon during totality. TTNwatcher, where did you end up viewing the eclipse and how was your experience? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
  22. 11 points
    My son took this with his phone through a telescope eyepiece
  23. 11 points
  24. 11 points
  25. 11 points
    Epic. From my sis on vacation in Wildwood Crest. Tonight at 8:27 IMG_0762.mov
  26. 10 points
    Random comments, thoughts and observations, some correlating with pictures but in no particular order: - had about 10” in Newtown - thundersnow a few times, and over the coarse of quite awhile - loved the blue color in the snow, I guess that’s the same phenomenon that results in the amazing turquoise color I have seen in hail-filled thunderstorms when I chase in the Plains - lost power from 3:30-9:30. First opportunity to use the generator we installed a year ago. It doesn’t handle everything in the house but enough to keep us comfortable. Need to get it checked out though, the transition wasn’t smooth, lights went on and off a couple of times. Also for whatever reason the incoming modem wasn’t connected to the generator panel so had no internet or TV during the outage! Almost missed a major work deadline because I couldn’t upload a file! - wish I had more time to enjoy and analyze the storm, but too busy with work. - I was worried for no reason about the rain/snow line advancing west - Newtown seemed to be favorably located to stay under the band for a long time as it pivoted rather than just passing through. So we did well here but didn’t necessarily max out compared to other areas - Loved this storm but thought the smaller one we had a few weeks ago on a Saturday night was prettier upon waking the next morning - hated to have to go out and ruin the beauty by shoveling right after it ended - I am in relatively good shape but after being behind a computer all day and then shoveling I was pretty achy last night - Lost a leyland cypress, it actually uprooted from the weight. I think it was planted too close to the basement stairwell and didn’t have enough root stability on that side. It is going to be tough to remove because it is leaning against the House right over the basement stairwell. - The picture probably isn’t showing last as I wanted it too, but here are my post shoveling beers chilling in the snow. A couple of those for me and a couple of sodas for my son were enjoyed while we had a snowball fight in the brief time we had left after finally finishing shoveling and trying to bang the snow off trees and my flattened boxwood bushes
  27. 10 points
  28. 10 points
    Even my cat is drooling over the NAM:
  29. 10 points
  30. 10 points
    My wife sent me this about 30min ago
  31. 10 points
    Union Dale, Pa near Elk Mt. This from my sister's cabin.
  32. 10 points
  33. 10 points
    POW!!!! What a glorious night!!! Sop much emotion!!! Crazy night in Philly!!!!!!!!!!!! I love everybody!!
  34. 10 points
    27 - 20 Birds Eagles Nation representing... Fly Eagles, Fly: and the Underdog
  35. 10 points
    (sorry, had to do one more pic) 4.8" (total thus far), 30F, still very light snow falling, hazy sun thru clouds despite sticking to everything (no or very light wind), snow is light and fluffy. Easy to shovel.
  36. 10 points
    Frozen river tour ended at Morrisville / Trenton this morning, bonus was getting close ups of a young snowy owl on the Morrisville levee. Looked up online & they're native to the high arctic. Many years may only result in up to one sighting in NJ however this season there have been a number of sightings. Nice analog moving forward is the last time there was a number of sightings was the winter of 2013-14.
  37. 10 points
    Got some pictures of my parents shore house in Wildwood Crest...big fan of the 8-10’ snow drift on our deck at our back door lol again very mad I wasn’t able to get down there for this storm.
  38. 10 points
    You think you have it rough. I drove one bus off a cliff and burned another. My wife is going to kill me 😥
  39. 10 points
    Finished with 4” today. Definitely a over performer here.
  40. 10 points
    Courtesy of @JoelNihlean -Hurricane Andrew, one of the costliest storms in Florida's history, superimposed in front of Hurricane Irma...incredible the size and scope of this storm...
  41. 10 points
    This was at peak In Delco;
  42. 10 points
    iPhone pics through my glasses
  43. 10 points
  44. 10 points
    Nice week in the Adirondacks. Dry and cool to start - first 4-day stretch of dry weather this summer according to the locals, and warm with more miss than hit Tstorms at end. returned to 0.87" in rain gauge and very Adirondack-like temps
  45. 10 points
  46. 10 points
    And then,. Finished up my week with my tournament for the golf week amateur tour @Philmont CC. Great track, quick greens. Ended up winning my field. (7-12hcps).
  47. 10 points
    Nice rainbow here at course before crush job cold comes in for the weekend and next week
  48. 9 points
    I dunno...something feels off. Maybe it's the optimism from Feb, logic from Tombo, DC bullseye on the Euro, apathy from IrishBri, exhaustion from last week, not enough exuberance from Heisi, limited dog in snow pics from Qtown, southern EPS, LanCo shaft zones, any reference to Mar '58, anxiety from Baseball0618, no Wxsim updates from Paul, Mitch moving to BGM, NE getting a blizzard, Monmouth and VAY jackpots, Tony 4.8" threshold...I think I just need the Euro to absolutely NAM us, then my snow weenie meter might perk up. For now I'm nervous.
  49. 9 points
    i miss that storm
  50. 9 points
    20 / 6 split today at PHL for the date, 1/1, 20 degrees is the coldest max temp in 100 yrs. (16 in 1918) & the 3rd coldest max temp for the period of record for the date the low of 6 degrees is also the coldest min temp in 100 yrs. (5 in 1918) & the 3rd coldest min temp for the period of record the record low for the day is 4 set in 1881 pics of the Delaware this morning at New Hope, Washington Crossing & Yardley