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Showing content with the highest reputation since 05/07/2014 in all areas

  1. 23 points
    new member of the family, brought home Zeke the yellow lab last WED, 9 wks. old & loves the snow, been at the door all morning begging to go out & romp in the snow
  2. 22 points
  3. 21 points
    Photos from the Perkiomen Trail near mile marker 10. Not a person in sight, just the way I like it.
  4. 20 points
    SN- 32° Unique weather conditions created this cool pic from yesterday. Sycamore sapcicle
  5. 20 points
  6. 20 points
    I know I haven't been posting too much, been busy with life lately.. Last night i proposed to my gf, and thankfully, she said yes!!!
  7. 20 points
  8. 20 points
    My thoughts.... A high impact wintry event will move through the region. A strong low pressure system will track northeast from the Southern Plains into the midwest. With the high offshore, warm air advection will increase and correspond with a warm front pushing northward. Isentropic lift will combine with increased mid level vertical velocities and frontogenesis forcing leading to the development of precipitation late Friday night and Saturday which is highly probable to become moderate or heavy at times. Wind gusts of 20 mph are possible as well in this timeframe. The precipitation should start everywhere as snow but the warm air advection will be potent (strong LLJ) with the high not in an ideal place to keep cold air around for an extended period. The snow should quickly change to rain Saturday morning across Delmarva and coastal New Jersey south of Atlantic City. Further north the snow will last a few hours longer in the Philadelphia and central New Jersey regions changing over by noon. In Northern New Jersey, the Lehigh Valley and Southern Poconos cold air is likely to hang on throughout most of the day before seeing a changeover to rain. A period of sleet and freezing rain is also probable at many locations in the transition as the mid-levels warm faster than the surface. For some of the valleys north and west, it may be more of a challenge to scour out the low level cold resulting in an extended period of ice. Models are notorious for getting rid of low level cold too quick. One thing that could allow the cold to hang on longer would be the formation of a secondary low off the NJ coastline, which is a possibility shown on some ensemble members. First guess snow totals with a few locations listed for each range. Will likely change based on track and intensity of system in the coming days. Ratios may start out in the 10-15:1 as snow growth looks favorable in the -10 to 20C layer along with the favorable lift described above. 4-6 for Mount Pocono, Wantage, Reading, Allentown and Somerville. 2-4 for Wilmington, Philadelphia, Mount Holly and New Brunswick 1-2 for Dover, Millville northeast into the Pine Barrens Less than an inch is currently expected for Georgetown and Cape May. Temperatures will continue to rise Saturday night in the warm sector. However, the forcing which results in widespread rain and snow Saturday takes a break Saturday night resulting in a dry slot or just some scattered rain showers. An 8-9 Standard deviation spread with the ensembles for temperatures is present in this timeframe, really high uncertainty.
  9. 19 points
    My son was born at 10:56 this morning! Meet Ryan Kenneth Shaffer. Couldn't ask for a more beautiful day for him to enter the world, hopefully it's a harbinger of good things to come 😁
  10. 19 points
    Snow day walk before we play outside later
  11. 18 points
    Lightning got one of the oak trees at the course
  12. 18 points
  13. 18 points
    A pic from the farm in East Fallowfield, from Mrs WMW. Brilliant March sun!
  14. 18 points
  15. 17 points
    Anyone looking for a hidden gem in the area filled with beauty and peace within driving distance I recommend Rock Hall, MD area on the Chesapeake. We’ve been there the last 2 summers and it’s a great escape from the grind. We did several days of hikes around Eastern Neck National Wildlife Refuge. Beautiful area. We’ve stayed at different B&B’s/Inn’s nearby.
  16. 17 points
  17. 17 points
  18. 17 points
    LOVE sticky snow, best snow for photos!
  19. 16 points
    This evening from the canoe in central Maine. This morning’s low, 45 yummy degrees.
  20. 16 points
    Hey folks, long time no chat. How's it going? Since ZR is in the mix for most I just thought I'd pop in and share this paper with you all: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0118.1. This is the research behind the FRAM (Freezing Rain Accumulation Model) that the NWS uses. (Or at least, in Central Region we use. I can't speak to those living the Bohemia lifestyle 😉.) The gist is that ice-to-liquid-ratio, ILR, is often actually even less than 1:1. The FRAM is a function of 1) rain rate, 2) wind speed, and 3) surface Tw. Rain rate shows the most robust statistical relationship. And it might not be what you think. Higher rain rates decrease the ILR - see Figs. 10-12. Remember that there is latent heat released when liquid freezes on contact. More liquid freezing at a time means more latent heat release and thus more warming of the surface. Secondarily, a higher rain rate also means more splash-off and thus less of the liquid remaining as ice. As for the other factors... more wind helps to transport that heat away from the surface and thus increases the ILR. For Tw, the relationship is non-linear, but as you can see, the peak ILR occurs with a surface Tw of around -1 to -3 C. That means a surface temp of 32.0 F usually doesn't cut it. Even 30-31 F can be iffy for significant ice accrual. So if we were to believe the NAM (famous last words), in Philly you're getting most of your ZR in the optimal temp range, so that's a plus for significant ice accrual. You should also have a 10-15 knot wind, which helps. Buuut a big chunk of the precip is coming while rain rates are still pretty high. Looking at the NAM in BUFKIT, I'm seeing a rain rate around 0.1"/hr during the hours where the Bourgouin gives ZR. That may end up really limiting the ice accrual - the median ILR for that rain rate is 0.5, and the innerquartile range is ~0.3 to 0.65. So all in all I'm not ready to bite on a major ice storm just yet. Now that said, I was also really bearish on the November snow event, so... 🙃 P.S. We'll cross 100" on the season up here by the end of the weekend. Sitting at 99.1" right now, with 19" on the ground. Continuous snow cover since November 9th. And this is entirely normal!
  21. 16 points
    I will first handly admit I was totally wrong about this storm and writing off these bigger totals just from a climo stand point and just how close soundings were. 9 times out of 10 with a sounding as marginal as that leading up to this event you don't come out the way we did. Throw in the fact we snowed above 546 thicknesses and also the mid level warmth was denied advancement till late. I think thats why I enjoy weather because there is never a given, it's always a variable and unpredictable. All in all some of those snow maps obv were way over done, but the euro's kuchera was solid and the eps did a fantastic job. Once I saw the nam last night with it's thermals and that fgen I knew if we could stay could enough it could overperform. I really knew this morning when I saw DC snowing and sticking.
  22. 16 points
    I took the plunge, but this is what happened when you follow the nam
  23. 16 points
  24. 16 points
  25. 16 points
  26. 15 points
  27. 15 points
    I spent the holiday weekend in Pittsburg NH chasing the elusive Great North Woods mature whitetail buck. Some sights:
  28. 15 points
    Sorry I’ve been mia, as in Scotland and Ireland for the last 2 weeks!!! Only 1 day of rain, and every day was sunny with 55-65°. Just stunning and extremely lucky! Sadly, no golf though. Too much stuff with the wife to do and my cousin as well. Ireland was a family reunion/ my sister’s wedding. Sorry @tombo82685 scottish highlands!
  29. 15 points
    Lot of trees down heading out to work. Schools now closed. A few pics this am.
  30. 15 points
  31. 15 points
    I was truly overcome with emotion this holiday , my only child gave birth to a handsome ( Looks like me ) baby boy on 12/17. I'm now a proud Pop Pop!
  32. 15 points
    best porta potty pic I've ever taken....just had 2 very close bolts near us in delco
  33. 15 points
  34. 15 points
    After grabbing all your data and Coocorahs stuff and applying some common sense in sparse areas, came up with this.
  35. 15 points
  36. 15 points
    If your house is lit up let's see it. This is my house this year. I add new things each year.
  37. 14 points
  38. 14 points
  39. 14 points
    Looks around 5" , here are a few pics from before the storm and during the storm. The drive home was a slow go last night.
  40. 14 points
    Wouldnt put my guard down NW of the fall line (ie @Qtown Snow), despite some sobering (for weenies like me) output from key models. Historically, our more significant ice storms occur with less than ideal timing and placement of surface features. We have an extension of the primary high pressure, located north of the UP of Michigan, starting in a good spot for cold air draining in Quebec, but retreating NE as the low approaches. This develops some CAD, however, it's short time in a good position limits the depth of the cold pool, as noted by dew points in the teens and twenties, rising as the high retreats and low approaches Many ice events have primary lows riding up into the WV area. As the primary rides up the western side of the Apps, and warm mid-level air rides over the Apps, and the shallow pool of cold air to the east, we typically see an inverted trough form along the coast. A difference between the colder NAM and warmer Euro are the depiction of the inverted trough placement. The EURO essentially indicates the CAD is so shallow/weak it's not feeling enough of an influence, so the cold is scoured more readily, thus reflecting a farther north inverted trough/baroclinic zone (where warmer ocean air meets CAD). This has merit as the cold pool was not well established. NAM on the other hand holds onto the CAD longer and shows a more pronounced inverted trough and farther south baroclinic zone. To the south of the inverted trough are warm southerly surface winds. To the north are cold NE surface winds, that typically lock in colder temperatures. See the difference in the inverted trough plavement and effevt on surface wind direction: In these marginal setups, PHL typically turns to rain. Far NW locks in cold longer than expected. Im not sharing anything new here, I wanted to highlight the importance of the inverted trough placement. If NAM thermals are closer to reality, that NE surface flow will bring quite a mess, here's a sounding at the height of the precip to reflect it
  41. 14 points
  42. 14 points
    Bangor PA — 6” as of 9:00 AM
  43. 14 points
    From Mrs WMW, on the farm in East Fallowfield
  44. 14 points
    Had a Cooper's hawk stop by in the middle of the storm. 4.25" is the final it seems here
  45. 13 points
  46. 13 points
    Renting in LBI for the week and watched this SVR-warned storm come across the bay and hit Beach Haven Crest. Nice shelf cloud, some pretty cool cloud formations above it, and awesome to actually see the leading edge of the rain racing across the water until it hit me full blast. Winds knocked a deck chair into the pool. The bay was like the ocean. Really cool storm. For most people that would ruin the day, but for me it was a highlight. It was all over in less than an hour, producing a faint rainbow from our vantage point, and we were still able to enjoy the evening from 6:00 on, including watching the sunset with my son while out on the water in kayaks. Photo credit for the lightning shot goes to my wife! I got one with lightning too, but hers was better so that’s the one I’m posting! A7D5B605-DC26-4840-A8E3-6C668B38ADF9.MP4
  47. 13 points
    Back from the Adirondacks, warm with daily storms till thursday.
  48. 13 points
    going through a few more pics, before sunrise
  49. 13 points
    Not sure if anyone has watched Ginger Zee’s new show Rescue Heroes on abc, but tomorrow’s episode is going to showcase a tornado that hit my hometown of Midlothian, Virginia last year. The tornado was produced as part of the remenants of Florence and touched down about 10 miles from where my family lives and where I grew up. Unfortunately there was one fatality. The show will also have some interviews with the local fire department which I feel is a part of my family. My dad retired as a Batallion Chief with Chesterfield County Fire and EMS after 35 years of service. If you are interested, the show comes on tomorrow, Saturday 1/19/19 at 11 am on abc. Enjoy!
  50. 13 points
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