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  1. 22 points
  2. 20 points
  3. 20 points
    My thoughts.... A high impact wintry event will move through the region. A strong low pressure system will track northeast from the Southern Plains into the midwest. With the high offshore, warm air advection will increase and correspond with a warm front pushing northward. Isentropic lift will combine with increased mid level vertical velocities and frontogenesis forcing leading to the development of precipitation late Friday night and Saturday which is highly probable to become moderate or heavy at times. Wind gusts of 20 mph are possible as well in this timeframe. The precipitation should start everywhere as snow but the warm air advection will be potent (strong LLJ) with the high not in an ideal place to keep cold air around for an extended period. The snow should quickly change to rain Saturday morning across Delmarva and coastal New Jersey south of Atlantic City. Further north the snow will last a few hours longer in the Philadelphia and central New Jersey regions changing over by noon. In Northern New Jersey, the Lehigh Valley and Southern Poconos cold air is likely to hang on throughout most of the day before seeing a changeover to rain. A period of sleet and freezing rain is also probable at many locations in the transition as the mid-levels warm faster than the surface. For some of the valleys north and west, it may be more of a challenge to scour out the low level cold resulting in an extended period of ice. Models are notorious for getting rid of low level cold too quick. One thing that could allow the cold to hang on longer would be the formation of a secondary low off the NJ coastline, which is a possibility shown on some ensemble members. First guess snow totals with a few locations listed for each range. Will likely change based on track and intensity of system in the coming days. Ratios may start out in the 10-15:1 as snow growth looks favorable in the -10 to 20C layer along with the favorable lift described above. 4-6 for Mount Pocono, Wantage, Reading, Allentown and Somerville. 2-4 for Wilmington, Philadelphia, Mount Holly and New Brunswick 1-2 for Dover, Millville northeast into the Pine Barrens Less than an inch is currently expected for Georgetown and Cape May. Temperatures will continue to rise Saturday night in the warm sector. However, the forcing which results in widespread rain and snow Saturday takes a break Saturday night resulting in a dry slot or just some scattered rain showers. An 8-9 Standard deviation spread with the ensembles for temperatures is present in this timeframe, really high uncertainty.
  4. 18 points
  5. 17 points
  6. 17 points
    LOVE sticky snow, best snow for photos!
  7. 16 points
  8. 16 points
    Looks like Cecily liked it.
  9. 16 points
  10. 15 points
    If your house is lit up let's see it. This is my house this year. I add new things each year.
  11. 14 points
    From Mrs WMW, on the farm in East Fallowfield
  12. 14 points
    Had a Cooper's hawk stop by in the middle of the storm. 4.25" is the final it seems here
  13. 13 points
    So times are a changing. We currently right now have a very zonal flow (flow is west to east) You can see that from this map. When the flow is zonal like this it is very easy to see why we aren't cold. The air is coming straight from the Pacific. Note, that even though we do have a -nao signature, it's displaced to far north and also the air in Canada, while cold is of Pacific origin. Also note, do to the zonal flow, all the cold air is bottled up north of the border. You need amplification in the pattern or a further south -nao to force the cold south. This zonal flow is also connected well with phase 4 MJO which shows a very flat flow/ridging. (Above) current green anomalies showing the tropical forcing pushing out of the IO region and towards Indonesia This zonal flow though will not last and we can trace the pattern shift back to Asia with a strong closed low that I have marked X. Note the looping feature, the wave break from this disturbance gets the ball rolling in the Pacific with pumping a ridge out ahead of it. The ridging caused from the wavebreak becomes a very stable feature as each each low on the wave train in the pacific only reinforces it. As we get further down the road in the 10-15 day period, the MJO also starts supporting a west coast ridge/east coast trough. While the robust convection currently wanes, the area of forcing still continues to move towards the dateline and then the maritime continent and Africa. The tropical forcing of phases 7->2 take the rest of Dec and into early Jan for it to run it's course. So that is also supporting a persistent trough signal in the east for the rest of DEC into the first week of January. Now a result of a wavebreak in Asia pumping up the heights into Alaska and the West Coast and then later on the MJO signal backing that up, we get this look. This is what we call meridonal flow. Basically flow that is more north to south representing an amplified pattern. Unlike the zonal flow you can clearly see where the air is coming straight from. The amplitude allows for the cold air to come south. This would set up below normal temperatures and would increase snow/ice chances. Below is the day 10 ensemble forecast off the EPS. This h5 map is basically the holy grail for any fan of cold and wintry weather. You have a +pna to give you the amplitude in the pattern to allow shortwaves to strengthen and to send the cold air south. The -nao slows the pattern in the Atlantic down blocking in areas of low pressure and high pressure. You also have a -AO which displaces cold anomalies that are usually found at the pole south into the mid latitudes. This is another source for bringing cold air south. Furthermore, due to the h5 configuration of an Aleutian low and Siberian high, this is a classic wave 1 disruption in the Stratosphere which we can see below. Wave 1 hits on the Stratospheric polar vortex are a good signal that cold air is on the move south. With that being said, the MJO forcing progression into cold phases and the continued hits on the Stratospheric PV Colder than normal December is gaining some ground. If these Ensemble outputs are correct snow chances are going to go up.
  14. 13 points
  15. 13 points
    400 pm 6.5 inches!!! Four inches mainly in the last two hours.
  16. 13 points
  17. 12 points
    3:00 pm Snow 29 degrees 2.9" Bumble is living large today
  18. 12 points
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  20. 12 points
    took a ton at sunset, couple
  21. 12 points
  22. 12 points
    A few pics from my drive home today, minus the deck pic.
  23. 12 points
    farmland a stones throw away from the hood in Lower Makefield, man it's was cold standing next to an open field with wind howling
  24. 12 points
    Despite the fact that we didn't get the projected totals, this was a hell of a storm and was well worth the hype. It's not very often you get 2-3" of sleet. A foot plus in LV and berks counties. 2ft plus in the poconos and almost a third of an inch of freezing rain in nj and delaware in mid march
  25. 12 points
    fresh coating on baxter with last squall
  26. 12 points
    A couple pictures from the farm in East Fallowfield yesterday morning, courtesy of Mrs WMW:
  27. 12 points
    Sunrise this morning in East Fallowfield
  28. 12 points
    I believe in always giving credit where credit is due and I gotta give alot of credit to Tony on this one, he made an excellent call on the backing NW, well done. I was 100% wrong on thinking this was going to stop at i95. Even though I didn't get much snow the fun of just tracking and sharing ideas on this storm makes it all wroth while. I'm glad everyone to the south and east got hit good today, it's been a rough season so far for those areas.
  29. 12 points
    From Union Dale, PA (near Elk Mt) at noon on 11/20/2016. There is about 7 inches of snow on the back deck.
  30. 12 points
    I am eating a cannoli and watching it snow. For the first time in 35 years I can sit back and enjoy it.
  31. 12 points
    Just my 2 cents but... I don't see much if any sleet or mixed pcpn up to phl this run. With the upper low tracking ene rather than up the coast, it will be hard to get enough warm air this far north to get mix. Using the ECMWF, the zero line at h8 is S of State of Delaware. Even though some warmer air may be up to 800 or even 750 mb, I dont see it making it up here. I also looked at the GFS and it seems too cold for any mix based on track and soundings. GFS soundings for Sat night imply embedded convection with some instability around 600 mb and above. Psbl thundersnow if it forms, I do see a difference between the 72hr GFS and ECMWF and this has to do with the circulation around the closed upper low to the south. Visually the GFS seems a bit more expansive than the ECMWF. In my mind this means the GFS also means a more northern extent to the very heavy snow and if it forms, any thundersnow. Something to watch when we get closer is for an inverted trough to form off the east coast that will suggest the track of the sfc low and how far north the core of the system can get. I know this is old style fcstg, but if the trough does not get up to the Jersey coastal waters, then all pcpn should be snow since the warmer air will be staying to the south.
  32. 11 points
  33. 11 points
    Eclipse chase report: After some tough travel logistics as detailed here, my original plan was on target to make the drive north from Boulder CO into WY, exact position to be determined by cloud cover (but hoping to skew east for later drive to Mount Rushmore). We hit the road at about 4:45am, about 15-30 min later than I had hoped but not bad for getting a family of five out the door... Wanted to stay off I-25 for a portion of the drive just out of preference, which probably cost me another 20-30 min. I thought I would have plenty of time but then when we got to I-25 the traffic was pretty heavy. Followed alternate routes per Google Maps for awhile until finally hopping on I-25 still somewhere south of Cheyenne, alternating between moving and nearly bumper to bumper (especially when passing a vehicle stopped on the shoulder and a Denver media vehicle parked alongside the road). It was probably about 7am when we were passing through Cheyenne, had to decide whether to go due north toward Glendo or northeast toward Torrington. Although the general forecast was for less cloud coverage as you moved west, with the Cheyenne AFD mentioning better conditions west of a line that included Torrington, everything was looking pretty good, we had NW winds behind a surface front, and the edge of totality was somewhat closer in that direction, so I decided on the Torrington route to get off I-25 and stay more east. Route 85 traffic was horrible and I was starting to wonder whether I would make it, although I had over three hours to go 100 miles. Finally got into the path of totality near Veteran WY, continued on to Torrington, used the rest rooms at Arby's, and went enough outside of town to pull off on a quiet side road across from one farm house literally the minute the partial eclipse was about to start. By the time we got our glasses on, the first tiny chunk of the sun could be seen to have been covered. When that last ember of orange disappeared and everything in our eclipse glasses had faded to black, we removed them and there before us was the most stunning sight of a black disc, like a black hole, with streamers of white light pouring out all around, and a couple of orange flares visible from the bottom right quadrant. I tell you, it was such a shocking, awe-inspiring sight, like a window into the universe had opened, like we were seeing God Himself revealed, and I don't mind admitting that it was so overwhelming, almost like a spiritual experience, that my eyes welled up with tears - which unfortunately blurred my vision for a bit ;-) It did not turn completely dark as I expected, it was like the time right before dark where you can still see an orange glow low in the sky. I didn't want to focus too much on that and miss the eclipse itself, but wished I had taken one more moment to notice whether there was a 360 degree sunset glow as I had read about, but it was all just so overwhelming, just too much to take in at once. Our area was supposed to have 2 minutes of totality, it seemed shorter but of course it would, with something so amazing. I wish we had time to have gotten further north and closer to the centerline but the difference was only 30 seconds so I guess I can't get too worked up about that. When the first orange flash of sun reappeared, it was the "diamond ring" I had read about, it seemed more pronounced then when the sun disappeared (although neither time did the "ring" portion go all around in a complete circle). We put our glasses back on but did not stay for the entire anti-climactic return of the sun. Overall an incredible experience and worth all the trouble, time and money to get there in my opinion. I can see why people become eclipse chasers. And the experience felt so similar to Plains storm chasing in a lot of ways, especially being out in that part of the country. I didn't take any pics, just wanted to enjoy it, and had read that cameras don't do a good job of capturing the streamers of light pouring out from around the moon during totality. TTNwatcher, where did you end up viewing the eclipse and how was your experience? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
  34. 11 points
    My son took this with his phone through a telescope eyepiece
  35. 11 points
  36. 11 points
    Epic. From my sis on vacation in Wildwood Crest. Tonight at 8:27 IMG_0762.mov
  37. 11 points
    Just a typical winter morning on the back roads of Lancaster County These balloons usually land about a half mile from our house in a field near Route 30. This was their sunrise cruise, I assume. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk
  38. 11 points
    Gotta give Mitch tons of credit and a big thanks from me for the great job at updating the pns statements with our snowfall tallies. Great job Mitch
  39. 11 points
    quite a hailer out in Lancaster http://lancasteronline.com/news/local/string-of-crashes-reported-around-lancaster-county-during-severe-weather/article_6b22ed26-fb9d-11e6-8686-f7e0a0cb579e.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
  40. 11 points
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  43. 11 points
    Got my son this snow measuring stick for xmas to see how much snow is out there without going out. Hopefully we can use it soon.
  44. 11 points
    You know it's a bad season when you can say with confidence this was the best storm of the season. Nothing crazy but I'd say some gusts north of 40, heavy rain and good lightning. Not to mention easily the best shelf cloud of the year.
  45. 11 points
  46. 11 points
  47. 11 points
    A few post storm, early morning pics from the beautiful East Fallowfield horse farm where my wife works: Sun dog!
  48. 11 points
    Just want to put a big thank you out there to the membership throughout this historic storm. There was a lot of discussion, from mets to forecasters to amateurs. Everything went smoothly, minimal issues, and we really took the forum out in the spotlight and onto the next level. We pride ourselves in limiting the bs, and getting as much accurate information & relative discussion out there as possible. This would not have been possible without you guys. You made Tony, myself & the admins job pretty easy. Everyone from the professional mets in here, to the hobbyist who just wants to post obs or ask questions, all are important to the success of this forum. We hope to keep it going as we move forward throughout winter. Glad to see everyone in the forum viewing area get the snow we wanted, and historic one at that! Be safe out there shoveling. Again, thank you, and hope you all keep contributing.
  49. 11 points
    I was sorta skeptical about this storm for the region around PHL 2 days ago even though the models did show it coming. However, after watching the last several runs of different models, I am now a believer. I orginally was thinking, a storm moving offshore near ORF and heading ENE out to sea, how do we get the high pcpn amounts fcst. Now I can see how it happens. One thing I like to look at is model dynamics and support for heavy pcpn that may be forecast. In another words, the why of the model, not just what the model is forecasting. After looking at the latest NAM and GFS, First, we are forecast to have pcp water values over phl of 6 to 7 tenths of an inch. For wintertime, this is decent. Also, I see good support for the 12 inch plus forecast and even 18 inches like is being forecasted. Soundings are looking like there is some instability aloft, although weak, but with the strong winds and lift, I would also expect some crosswise instability as well (I hope I got the term correct) but do not have any maps to see this. However, with strong lift that will occur and after looking at the winds aloft showing strong divergence aloft too, this combination should line up and allow snowfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour and maybe even a bit more underneath any areas with convective banding and possible thundersnows.
  50. 11 points
    a few from this morning - never gets old
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