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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/11/2019 in all areas

  1. 7 points
    Forgot to post this yesterday, but I thought the edge of this snow shower looked pretty neat
  2. 4 points
    Weenie run of the GEFS: (Thru day 12* only)
  3. 4 points
    Welp....there goes my marriage, and focus at work, for the next week:
  4. 3 points
    SREF Plumes are making me a happy mama this morning. Don't want to be completely snowed in with two youngsters, but have enough to get them outside (even if I do have to bundle them up for frigid temperatures.)
  5. 3 points
    Ask me how much zen I have when the GFS forecasts 12 consecutive days of below 20F or above 90F highs or when a line of thunderstorms is approaching Philadelphia at 10 pm at night.
  6. 3 points
  7. 3 points
    Jesus... who ran the 18z GFS?! Weenie heaven. But going forward, the pac is starting to slow down. The Aluetian low will be able to pump up PNA ridges, and as well as the EPO domain. The Atlantic will be neutral- favorable to highly favorable at times. (Part tropospheric influences, part SSW/SPLIT affects). We’re just getting started. We’re about to Jekyl and hide this winter...
  8. 2 points
    Best of the EPS this season. Multiple snow threats and brutal cold look at the end.
  9. 2 points
    NWS has hoisted a WWA for Sussex County (de) - 2-4 inches of snow expected. Pretty excited
  10. 2 points
    That euro run was probably the worst thing for weenie. Now everyone is going to be looking for that scenario from here on out
  11. 2 points
    As I have been saying pv orientation is huge in this. This run much better. If it’s not aligned right this goes to the lakes with ease. The synoptic pattern favors a track to our west but of the pv is in the right spot that is your block pretty much. Regardless with the -epo there will be some big gigi highs swinging through southern Canada into the US somewhere
  12. 2 points
    Here is the phl gfs sounding as the snow is beginning. Generally light winds in the column with east winds in the lowest levels. So better chance of overcoming dry air than some storms with a steady dry air feed from a strong high.
  13. 2 points
    The dry air is going to be a pain, thats for sure. Just cause its cold doesn't mean you get over 10-1. You need lift in the dgz too. I think that map is solid as well. With latest trends I'd think about bumping up central and southern DE away from coast.
  14. 2 points
    I said it like 3 days ago, if you're looking for 6+ this isn't your storm. But if 1-3/2-4 is good for you that can happen. Which is what that is showing there
  15. 2 points
    This comes down to the pv location in southeast Canada, because the ridge out west argues for a cutter or primary up then secondary some where. Going to need that pv to press down the hgts in the east as it looks now. Granted it's 8-9 days away. So lots will change
  16. 2 points
    I’m telling ya’s, I’m away that weekend. It’s gonna happen . (Flying home Monday night , so slowing this down by a day wouldn’t be a bad thing !!.😅).
  17. 2 points
    Some BIG time SLP’s in there: the signal is real. Will it be wet or white?!
  18. 2 points
    A few pics from my after Christmas Trip to Hope Lake Lodge near Cortland, NY.
  19. 2 points
    week 1 0 week 2 -1 week 3 -5 week 4 -4 week 5 -2 week 6 -2
  20. 2 points
    I would take this in a heart beat with the WAA snows on the fv3 gfs. Thats the one thing I think we can possibly see trend better in next 48-60hrs is the WAA snows. Coastal is shot in my eyes
  21. 2 points
    Some day the politicians will learn that shutdowns don't work in more ways than one.
  22. 2 points
    My hat is off to Mitch, Mike, Ray and others for their service and hope this nightmare ends soon. Taking federal workers' families hostage just isn't right. The Weather Service is open 24/7, and it’s taking a toll on unpaid forecasters https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/09/weather-service-is-open-forecasters-are-working-without-pay-its-taking-toll/
  23. 1 point
    This coming storm the confluence zone is perfect the issue is there is a little s/w that is timed right with our wave coming from the west that acts to lower hgts again. The confluence itself is ideal outside of that tpv streamer
  24. 1 point
    You want confluence in this setup trust me. Granted if it’s over bearing then that’s not good.
  25. 1 point
    At least someone getting hit hard
  26. 1 point
    Wow - another flat tracker with big-time convergence.
  27. 1 point
  28. 1 point
    And there we go. Nice! Now we endure the highs and lows of a week of tracking
  29. 1 point
    I wonder if we can get a December Eagles/Lions snow event type deal where a band sets up right in that confluence zone. It isn’t impossible since the models are all showing that overrunning stuff out ahead of the main short wave. We’ll see. Anything over an inch of snow in the city would be a win in my books, especially if we can cash in next weekend.
  30. 1 point
    I agree with you actually, but I am being somewhat sarcastic and I just never was a fan of this one. If I can run my new plow setup for my UTV I will be ecstatic!
  31. 1 point
  32. 1 point
    That would be great if that verified, but I'd be quite surprised. Aside from minor shifts here and there, the consensus has been pretty clear for a while that we're too far north for this one to give us anything but less than advisory level accums.
  33. 1 point
    fv3...general .25 -.3 from ptw-dyl-ttn on south.... we take
  34. 1 point
    GFS says no soup for you! Again having set my bar at smoking cirrus any flakes I see will feel like a surprise. Don't be surprised to see this get drier and drier in our CWA as we get closer.
  35. 1 point
  36. 1 point
    LOL - pace yourself - could last a while😎
  37. 1 point
    NAM 6z (top) vs. NAM 0z (bottom) The north stream vort/TPV swings by more favorably in the 6z NAM, allowing for a longer duration light-moderate snowfall event with better totals. Considering that these changes in the models are still occurring, I suppose it is *still* worth keeping an eye on, though I am a little surprised that these changes are still happening.
  38. 1 point
    Gfs has a nice temp/wind profile for fluffy stuff. Just not a whole lot of omega/lift to work with. Should be able to hit around 15:1 ratios with this under the better bands.
  39. 1 point
    Nope, the fact that it's finally cold enough to snow is why we are not seeing another 1" deluge on a weekend and instead counting hundredths of an inch of QPF.
  40. 1 point
    worst for your location, cloudy skies, best case 2-4
  41. 1 point
    D+11 analogs only include the following KU date: February 5, 1967 (February 5–7, 1967) D+8 analogs only include the following KU date: January 15, 1978 (one day before January 16-18, 1978 January 1, 1994 (two days before January 3--5, 1994) If it's all the same to everyone else, I think I'll discontinue listing these until a bunch pop up. I suspect it's rather ordinary to list two KU dates or near-KU dates in a normal winter period.
  42. 1 point
    There will certainly be some decent bands of snow, within those is where you get good lift that is the best chance of higher ratios. Just because you have cold, doesn't automatically mean good ratios. You need lift in the dgz. Also helps that it's not windy aloft either. I would say best chance for good lift is west of town.
  43. 1 point
    As always, a lot of great analysis but I truly hope, once we get into a serious snow threat, that the idle chat/banter etc can move to “winter banter” thread!!
  44. 1 point
  45. 1 point
    Fair to say our hours logged tracking to actual snowfall ratio is at an all time high.
  46. 1 point
    that day 10 system has the makings for a biggie. Going to be a fun next 10 days watching that unfold.
  47. 1 point
    Light snow in Detroit. I think this is one of the players for the weekend. View from 30000 ft.
  48. 1 point
    I've had a couple of Bucks hanging out in my backyard recently. They're not shy. These two were munching on my bird feeders and sparring at 10:30am the other day. Sparring Partners by Josh, on Flickr Big Papa by Josh, on Flickr
  49. 1 point
    Phew, not sure what it was but glad they are all still there!
  50. 1 point
    HI everyone, I think that this is the best forum to share an article that I spent most of last fall working on that I just posted to my blog a couple of hours ago. Some of you know that I write a blog about aerial wildland firefighting and related issues which sometimes concern weather issues affecting firefighting. What started a simple conversation with a couple of friends of mine about Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings turned into a much longer article with a discussion of Fire Weather Watches and RFW along with discussions of some of the other advisories, watches, and warnings issued by the NWS. Along the way, I got help with meteorologists from our own WFO Mt Holly, and several other WFOs from around the country. And a retired NWS meteorologist. Their help was invaluable. NWS Advisories, Watches, Warnings with a Focus on Fire Weather PS on second thought perhaps this would be better in the winter banter thread. Feel free to move. Tyler
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