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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/11/2019 in all areas

  1. 7 points
    Forgot to post this yesterday, but I thought the edge of this snow shower looked pretty neat
  2. 4 points
    Welp....there goes my marriage, and focus at work, for the next week:
  3. 3 points
  4. 3 points
    Jesus... who ran the 18z GFS?! Weenie heaven. But going forward, the pac is starting to slow down. The Aluetian low will be able to pump up PNA ridges, and as well as the EPO domain. The Atlantic will be neutral- favorable to highly favorable at times. (Part tropospheric influences, part SSW/SPLIT affects). We’re just getting started. We’re about to Jekyl and hide this winter...
  5. 2 points
    I’m telling ya’s, I’m away that weekend. It’s gonna happen . (Flying home Monday night , so slowing this down by a day wouldn’t be a bad thing !!.😅).
  6. 2 points
    Some BIG time SLP’s in there: the signal is real. Will it be wet or white?!
  7. 2 points
    A few pics from my after Christmas Trip to Hope Lake Lodge near Cortland, NY.
  8. 2 points
    week 1 0 week 2 -1 week 3 -5 week 4 -4 week 5 -2 week 6 -2
  9. 2 points
    I would take this in a heart beat with the WAA snows on the fv3 gfs. Thats the one thing I think we can possibly see trend better in next 48-60hrs is the WAA snows. Coastal is shot in my eyes
  10. 2 points
    Some day the politicians will learn that shutdowns don't work in more ways than one.
  11. 2 points
    My hat is off to Mitch, Mike, Ray and others for their service and hope this nightmare ends soon. Taking federal workers' families hostage just isn't right. The Weather Service is open 24/7, and it’s taking a toll on unpaid forecasters https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/09/weather-service-is-open-forecasters-are-working-without-pay-its-taking-toll/
  12. 1 point
    NAM 6z (top) vs. NAM 0z (bottom) The north stream vort/TPV swings by more favorably in the 6z NAM, allowing for a longer duration light-moderate snowfall event with better totals. Considering that these changes in the models are still occurring, I suppose it is *still* worth keeping an eye on, though I am a little surprised that these changes are still happening.
  13. 1 point
    Gfs has a nice temp/wind profile for fluffy stuff. Just not a whole lot of omega/lift to work with. Should be able to hit around 15:1 ratios with this under the better bands.
  14. 1 point
    Nope, the fact that it's finally cold enough to snow is why we are not seeing another 1" deluge on a weekend and instead counting hundredths of an inch of QPF.
  15. 1 point
    worst for your location, cloudy skies, best case 2-4
  16. 1 point
    D+11 analogs only include the following KU date: February 5, 1967 (February 5–7, 1967) D+8 analogs only include the following KU date: January 15, 1978 (one day before January 16-18, 1978 January 1, 1994 (two days before January 3--5, 1994) If it's all the same to everyone else, I think I'll discontinue listing these until a bunch pop up. I suspect it's rather ordinary to list two KU dates or near-KU dates in a normal winter period.
  17. 1 point
    week 1 neutral pna/-epo/-ao/+nao. abv normal hgts, flow from MT, mean trough in the east week 2 +pna/-epo/-enao/-ao. Normal hgts, mean trough in the east, flow from Canada week 3 ----------nao/-epo/+pna/-ao. WAaaaaayyyyy below normal hgts, flow from NW territories week 4 ------nao/-epo/+pna/-ao. Below normal hgts, flow from Canada week 5 -nao/-epo/+pna/-ao. Below normal hgts, flow from Canada week 6 -nao/-epo/+pna/-ao. Below normal hgts, flow from Canada
  18. 1 point
    As always, a lot of great analysis but I truly hope, once we get into a serious snow threat, that the idle chat/banter etc can move to “winter banter” thread!!
  19. 1 point
  20. 1 point
    Fair to say our hours logged tracking to actual snowfall ratio is at an all time high.
  21. 1 point
    that day 10 system has the makings for a biggie. Going to be a fun next 10 days watching that unfold.
  22. 1 point
    Light snow in Detroit. I think this is one of the players for the weekend. View from 30000 ft.
  23. 1 point
    I've had a couple of Bucks hanging out in my backyard recently. They're not shy. These two were munching on my bird feeders and sparring at 10:30am the other day. Sparring Partners by Josh, on Flickr Big Papa by Josh, on Flickr
  24. 1 point
    Phew, not sure what it was but glad they are all still there!
  25. 1 point
    HI everyone, I think that this is the best forum to share an article that I spent most of last fall working on that I just posted to my blog a couple of hours ago. Some of you know that I write a blog about aerial wildland firefighting and related issues which sometimes concern weather issues affecting firefighting. What started a simple conversation with a couple of friends of mine about Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings turned into a much longer article with a discussion of Fire Weather Watches and RFW along with discussions of some of the other advisories, watches, and warnings issued by the NWS. Along the way, I got help with meteorologists from our own WFO Mt Holly, and several other WFOs from around the country. And a retired NWS meteorologist. Their help was invaluable. NWS Advisories, Watches, Warnings with a Focus on Fire Weather PS on second thought perhaps this would be better in the winter banter thread. Feel free to move. Tyler