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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/02/2019 in all areas

  1. 3 points
    Weather is never normal, but 2018 to me felt like we were cheated in enjoying the months/seasons as they were meant to be more so than usual. Very few months lived up to their climo billing January, ok fig crushing cold February was March March was February April was SSW(d) May-July was probably the only stretch that was close to "normal" August, I didn't sign up for Miami Dew Points September was another August wantobe month again. October started as if it was Labor Day. The last couple of weeks were good. November snowy for 12 hours and otherwise cold and dank December, shut off the rain already. These were the Mount Laurel yearly totals: Highest temp 97F Lowest temp 1F Total precipitation: 66.02" Total snowfall: 33.3"
  2. 3 points
    gigi and I would pay for that to happen. The para gfs seems like it's ran from a snow weenies bedroom
  3. 2 points
    Philadelphia stats Highest temp 98F Lowest temp 4F Total precipitation: 61.52" Number of days with measurable precipitation: 145 (most since 2003) Number of days with >/= 0.25" : 73, a new all-time record Number of days with >/= 0.50" : 44 (Congrats Parsley, you were right), a new all-time record Total snowfall: 25.1" Number of days 90F or higher: 30 Number of days <10F: 3
  4. 1 point
    euro 1/2 12z: 1.1 1/3 0z: .7 1/3 12z: .48 1/4 0z: .6 1/4 12z: .85 1/5 0z: .62 eps 1/2 12z: .95 1/3 0z: .8 1/3 12z: .6 1/4 0z: .7 1/4 12z: 1 1/5 0z: .52
  5. 1 point
    91 days. You'd think I'd be able to outdrive Tom with all of that practice.
  6. 1 point
  7. 1 point
    Tracing back the 500mb flow from PHL the air (558 height line) is still entering the country in Washington State. While I would say given where the MJO is going colder solutions beyond day 10 are gaining plausibility, I still like to see it hold crossing the day 10 threshold. This has become the flip of November where warmer patterns were always only 12 days away. As for why we were chasing our tail, the GFS/GEFS had a SSW as early as December 21st(ish) (wrong) and kept pimping an earlier occurrence (wrong squared); there were MJO outlooks that were either too fast (wrong) or had it going into the COD (wrong again, please come back another time when you gain a clue). I am not sure that the 1,2 thermal surge didn't cause or at least exacerbate the SE ridge due to MJO phases we are/were in. I would be surprised (but not shocked) if the second half of January does not average below normal or at the very least colder than the first half.
  8. 1 point
    euro 12/31 12z: .13 1/1 0z: 0 1/1 12z: .02 1/2 0z: 0 1/2 12z: 0 1/3 0z: 0 eps 12/31 12z: .12 1/1 0z: .1 1/1 12z: .15 1/2 0z: .02 1/2 12z: .02 1/3 0z: 0
  9. 1 point
    I think going forward there are issues with the MJO, but looking back at the second half of December, it did a good job of foreshadowing the outcome. To me the pattern changed on December 12th. Up to that point the previous MJO cycle was shot out of a cannon, it was about 30 days which is about as fast as it can be. True, some of the outlook issues remained the same of forecasting the MJO to go into the COD and bypass or mute the warm phases. Up to mid December we have seen these COD outlooks failed miserably and why shouldnt it now. What has occurred since is that the MJO has slowed and slowed in phases that are favorable for warmer regimes here. This Rossby wave then had a synergistic effect on the whole pattern. So here we are today, the MJO crossing the boundary of phase 5/6. All things being equal, I would expect it to remain stronger than outlooked and we would start seeing model repsonses to colder regimes right in the middle of this month. Quite honestly the models have not proven to me to be reliable beyond day 8 or day 9 with the pattern as much as a day 9 heavy snow predicted by the Euro has been a reliable indicator of day 1. Actually after mid November, its been the KOD. I was wrong in my thinking too that the MJO progression would be faster, I thought this first week would have been choppier and not warm. But all things being equal, I still feel a colder pattern should be here for the second half (at least thru then) of January with probable SSW enhancements assisting. If I am wrong again, Tom will cut my pay in half.
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