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Showing content with the highest reputation since 08/28/2018 in all areas

  1. 21 points
    Photos from the Perkiomen Trail near mile marker 10. Not a person in sight, just the way I like it.
  2. 20 points
    SN- 32° Unique weather conditions created this cool pic from yesterday. Sycamore sapcicle
  3. 19 points
    Snow day walk before we play outside later
  4. 17 points
  5. 16 points
    Hey folks, long time no chat. How's it going? Since ZR is in the mix for most I just thought I'd pop in and share this paper with you all: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0118.1. This is the research behind the FRAM (Freezing Rain Accumulation Model) that the NWS uses. (Or at least, in Central Region we use. I can't speak to those living the Bohemia lifestyle 😉.) The gist is that ice-to-liquid-ratio, ILR, is often actually even less than 1:1. The FRAM is a function of 1) rain rate, 2) wind speed, and 3) surface Tw. Rain rate shows the most robust statistical relationship. And it might not be what you think. Higher rain rates decrease the ILR - see Figs. 10-12. Remember that there is latent heat released when liquid freezes on contact. More liquid freezing at a time means more latent heat release and thus more warming of the surface. Secondarily, a higher rain rate also means more splash-off and thus less of the liquid remaining as ice. As for the other factors... more wind helps to transport that heat away from the surface and thus increases the ILR. For Tw, the relationship is non-linear, but as you can see, the peak ILR occurs with a surface Tw of around -1 to -3 C. That means a surface temp of 32.0 F usually doesn't cut it. Even 30-31 F can be iffy for significant ice accrual. So if we were to believe the NAM (famous last words), in Philly you're getting most of your ZR in the optimal temp range, so that's a plus for significant ice accrual. You should also have a 10-15 knot wind, which helps. Buuut a big chunk of the precip is coming while rain rates are still pretty high. Looking at the NAM in BUFKIT, I'm seeing a rain rate around 0.1"/hr during the hours where the Bourgouin gives ZR. That may end up really limiting the ice accrual - the median ILR for that rain rate is 0.5, and the innerquartile range is ~0.3 to 0.65. So all in all I'm not ready to bite on a major ice storm just yet. Now that said, I was also really bearish on the November snow event, so... 🙃 P.S. We'll cross 100" on the season up here by the end of the weekend. Sitting at 99.1" right now, with 19" on the ground. Continuous snow cover since November 9th. And this is entirely normal!
  6. 16 points
    I will first handly admit I was totally wrong about this storm and writing off these bigger totals just from a climo stand point and just how close soundings were. 9 times out of 10 with a sounding as marginal as that leading up to this event you don't come out the way we did. Throw in the fact we snowed above 546 thicknesses and also the mid level warmth was denied advancement till late. I think thats why I enjoy weather because there is never a given, it's always a variable and unpredictable. All in all some of those snow maps obv were way over done, but the euro's kuchera was solid and the eps did a fantastic job. Once I saw the nam last night with it's thermals and that fgen I knew if we could stay could enough it could overperform. I really knew this morning when I saw DC snowing and sticking.
  7. 15 points
    Sorry I’ve been mia, as in Scotland and Ireland for the last 2 weeks!!! Only 1 day of rain, and every day was sunny with 55-65°. Just stunning and extremely lucky! Sadly, no golf though. Too much stuff with the wife to do and my cousin as well. Ireland was a family reunion/ my sister’s wedding. Sorry @tombo82685 scottish highlands!
  8. 15 points
    Lot of trees down heading out to work. Schools now closed. A few pics this am.
  9. 15 points
  10. 15 points
    I was truly overcome with emotion this holiday , my only child gave birth to a handsome ( Looks like me ) baby boy on 12/17. I'm now a proud Pop Pop!
  11. 14 points
    Looks around 5" , here are a few pics from before the storm and during the storm. The drive home was a slow go last night.
  12. 14 points
    Wouldnt put my guard down NW of the fall line (ie @Qtown Snow), despite some sobering (for weenies like me) output from key models. Historically, our more significant ice storms occur with less than ideal timing and placement of surface features. We have an extension of the primary high pressure, located north of the UP of Michigan, starting in a good spot for cold air draining in Quebec, but retreating NE as the low approaches. This develops some CAD, however, it's short time in a good position limits the depth of the cold pool, as noted by dew points in the teens and twenties, rising as the high retreats and low approaches Many ice events have primary lows riding up into the WV area. As the primary rides up the western side of the Apps, and warm mid-level air rides over the Apps, and the shallow pool of cold air to the east, we typically see an inverted trough form along the coast. A difference between the colder NAM and warmer Euro are the depiction of the inverted trough placement. The EURO essentially indicates the CAD is so shallow/weak it's not feeling enough of an influence, so the cold is scoured more readily, thus reflecting a farther north inverted trough/baroclinic zone (where warmer ocean air meets CAD). This has merit as the cold pool was not well established. NAM on the other hand holds onto the CAD longer and shows a more pronounced inverted trough and farther south baroclinic zone. To the south of the inverted trough are warm southerly surface winds. To the north are cold NE surface winds, that typically lock in colder temperatures. See the difference in the inverted trough plavement and effevt on surface wind direction: In these marginal setups, PHL typically turns to rain. Far NW locks in cold longer than expected. Im not sharing anything new here, I wanted to highlight the importance of the inverted trough placement. If NAM thermals are closer to reality, that NE surface flow will bring quite a mess, here's a sounding at the height of the precip to reflect it
  13. 13 points
    going through a few more pics, before sunrise
  14. 13 points
    It looked like about 5" in Towamencin before I hit the hay last night. NWS has a public rwading of 4.8 for Kulpsville (little town within Towamencin). Only needed a 2 hour delay dor schools. I rent and am not allowed to have any weather equipment outside. 😒😩 Otherwise, I'd be set up with a bunch of things and I'd join CoCorahs. I'll see if some BucksCo friends are interested on joining. Here's my pretty snow pic from this morning. A bunch of trees lost branches overnight. My property company will cut an entire tree down if it loses a branch, so Spring clean up will suck. 😔
  15. 13 points
    Little gigi with a chefs hat on this morning. Wonder what he’s cooking
  16. 13 points
  17. 13 points
    Looks beautiful here in Allentown
  18. 13 points
    Not sure if anyone has watched Ginger Zee’s new show Rescue Heroes on abc, but tomorrow’s episode is going to showcase a tornado that hit my hometown of Midlothian, Virginia last year. The tornado was produced as part of the remenants of Florence and touched down about 10 miles from where my family lives and where I grew up. Unfortunately there was one fatality. The show will also have some interviews with the local fire department which I feel is a part of my family. My dad retired as a Batallion Chief with Chesterfield County Fire and EMS after 35 years of service. If you are interested, the show comes on tomorrow, Saturday 1/19/19 at 11 am on abc. Enjoy!
  19. 13 points
    About as good as I can get from my phone through my daughter's telescope 😅
  20. 13 points
    About 10.5” storm total. It is bone chilling cold outside right now too with these wind chills.
  21. 12 points
    Today was Nooch's (he still loves snow and cold weather) graduation from Rowan. This is needless to say, but his parents are proud of him! Picture of Nooch and a couple of his high school friends that he shared a house with the last two years in Glassboro. I think Sean (left most person) gets to keep the Eagles flag.
  22. 12 points
    And the finish product. This was done a week or so ago
  23. 12 points
    My wife and I took our daughter to see Double Dare Live in Lancaster last night. She was too young to get called up on stage...but we weren't Living a childhood dream, Marc Summers picked us to come up on stage and do a physical challenge--we beat the "yutes" for the adult team.
  24. 12 points
    I need at least some snow tomorrow, it is only fitting for me to become a new father with some snow falling. We are scheduled to leave for the hospital tonight--well before anything starts, thankfully.
  25. 12 points
  26. 12 points
    Baxter loves snow, tastes great, from today
  27. 12 points
  28. 12 points
  29. 12 points
    winter 2018-19 March will Rock!!!!
  30. 12 points
  31. 12 points
  32. 12 points
  33. 11 points
    Well, most overcast all day with some drizzle doing the first look/bridal photos. Sun broke out a little for our ceremony. Not too shabby of a day. Thank you to all of you who reached out with congratulations (and helped with the forecast/easing my nerves!)
  34. 11 points
    Buckingham PA 3/4/19 @ 11am (reported 6”@ 1am)
  35. 11 points
    Beautiful day in West Caln
  36. 11 points
  37. 11 points
    Nice coating of ice on just about everything. Thermometer must be broken. Won't go above 32. Sitting at 31.9F most of the night.
  38. 11 points
    Some clearing looking toward Mt. Trappe to my west. Oh wait, that’s a picture from wife at a conference out in Breckenridge, CO.
  39. 11 points
    Got 4.7” first round. 2nd round so far is 0.4” 33F/77%RH pressure 30.39 wind: calm My dog is sad cause someone slammed his earlier stick measurements 😉 Hockessin, DE I’m in front of this warm fire... with a bourbon in hand watching the Flyers lose
  40. 11 points
    After getting some skiing in I decided to make a stop in the Del. Water Gap area. The wind was legit at the Gap today, but the temps gave me some great photo ops.
  41. 11 points
  42. 11 points
    To get my mind off the Eagles, laid out an overview of the possible weekend storm, with some definitions for those less familiar. The pros might need to refine some of these thoughts, but I've warmed up to this threat primarily due to the improving features noted below. Sorry for poor quality of notes: Looking at the synoptic features (big picture/main players on the field), I'm seeing positive indicators outweigh negatives for a major winter storm to impact our area. PV location is a key player and any shift in that feature may impact high pressure strength and location, and associated CAD (cold air damming) Using the KU book as my model, here's what we see as indicators of a developing east coast storm, its become rather textbook in many regards: 72 hours in advance of storm, a typical benign look, Friday's storm out ahead has no negative impact - relatively zonal flow - closed upper low in NE Canada (PV) 48 hours in advance - amplifying PNA ridge - Closed upper low in NE Canada maintains confluent NW flow over NE (high pressure typically located to west) - split flow in Pacific with vigorous STJ (subtropical jet) along southern US and PJ (Polar jet) from NW - disturbance riding polar jet triggers surface low development - modest Greenland ridging (-NAO) (helps to lock PV in place to act as in situ 50/50 low, blocking surface low from faster exit up the coast) 24 hours out - amplifying PNA ridge well positioned with axis over NW US sliding slowly east - PV still closed over NE Canada, jet streak develops as eastern trough amplifies and PJ merges with - PJ/STJ merger (phase), jet streak develops over SE US - dual jet structure enhances moisture transport along with CAD reinforcement Storm Arrival - strengthening surface low cannot penetrate confluence and redevlops along coast - CAD reinforced by strong high - dual jet - Confluent flow weakens, high slides NE, but damage done If guidance maintains consistency with these key features, a wet storm is on the way Some beneficial improvements: - strengthening - NAO to stabilize PV position - PV slightly farther east, to act as a transient block for storm to slow - PNA ridge axis to maintain progged position north of Idaho within 24 hours or so of storm commencement - earlier possible Arctic Jet phasing (you see it more on gfs op as storm jumps to coast, inducing h5 to close off). Watch the 534 line as a guide, if that drops south earlier, it might further strengthen the storm. This is a feature noted on many significant storms in the past.
  43. 11 points
    Man a lot of jumpers already. I mean I'll be there soon but not till saturday
  44. 11 points
    A few pics from beautiful West Caln Township today.
  45. 11 points
  46. 11 points
    Couple of leaf shots from the hood today: Perfect fall day for a long stroll along the canal, Delaware River was really rolling through Solebury Twp. from all that rain upstream. The flow downstream at Trenton easily surpassed the previous max flow for the date. a couple canal shots in Central Bucks
  47. 11 points
  48. 11 points
    Wow, blue skies today and colors, I love Fall (behind winter of course )
  49. 11 points
    Geez... Fall finally arrives in PA and we fly south to Orlando. In Disney for the next 5 days. Great flight path on the way down, saw AC from what had to be 30 or 40 miles away, paralleled the coast and picked out the shore points the whole way from Cape May to Cape Hatteras. Also had a nice view of the CBBT and Kennedy Space Center.
  50. 11 points
    Took this photo of my yard this morning, thought you guys might like it.
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