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Showing content with the highest reputation since 08/28/2018 in all areas

  1. 21 points
    Photos from the Perkiomen Trail near mile marker 10. Not a person in sight, just the way I like it.
  2. 20 points
    SN- 32° Unique weather conditions created this cool pic from yesterday. Sycamore sapcicle
  3. 19 points
    Snow day walk before we play outside later
  4. 17 points
  5. 16 points
    Hey folks, long time no chat. How's it going? Since ZR is in the mix for most I just thought I'd pop in and share this paper with you all: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0118.1. This is the research behind the FRAM (Freezing Rain Accumulation Model) that the NWS uses. (Or at least, in Central Region we use. I can't speak to those living the Bohemia lifestyle 😉.) The gist is that ice-to-liquid-ratio, ILR, is often actually even less than 1:1. The FRAM is a function of 1) rain rate, 2) wind speed, and 3) surface Tw. Rain rate shows the most robust statistical relationship. And it might not be what you think. Higher rain rates decrease the ILR - see Figs. 10-12. Remember that there is latent heat released when liquid freezes on contact. More liquid freezing at a time means more latent heat release and thus more warming of the surface. Secondarily, a higher rain rate also means more splash-off and thus less of the liquid remaining as ice. As for the other factors... more wind helps to transport that heat away from the surface and thus increases the ILR. For Tw, the relationship is non-linear, but as you can see, the peak ILR occurs with a surface Tw of around -1 to -3 C. That means a surface temp of 32.0 F usually doesn't cut it. Even 30-31 F can be iffy for significant ice accrual. So if we were to believe the NAM (famous last words), in Philly you're getting most of your ZR in the optimal temp range, so that's a plus for significant ice accrual. You should also have a 10-15 knot wind, which helps. Buuut a big chunk of the precip is coming while rain rates are still pretty high. Looking at the NAM in BUFKIT, I'm seeing a rain rate around 0.1"/hr during the hours where the Bourgouin gives ZR. That may end up really limiting the ice accrual - the median ILR for that rain rate is 0.5, and the innerquartile range is ~0.3 to 0.65. So all in all I'm not ready to bite on a major ice storm just yet. Now that said, I was also really bearish on the November snow event, so... 🙃 P.S. We'll cross 100" on the season up here by the end of the weekend. Sitting at 99.1" right now, with 19" on the ground. Continuous snow cover since November 9th. And this is entirely normal!
  6. 16 points
    I will first handly admit I was totally wrong about this storm and writing off these bigger totals just from a climo stand point and just how close soundings were. 9 times out of 10 with a sounding as marginal as that leading up to this event you don't come out the way we did. Throw in the fact we snowed above 546 thicknesses and also the mid level warmth was denied advancement till late. I think thats why I enjoy weather because there is never a given, it's always a variable and unpredictable. All in all some of those snow maps obv were way over done, but the euro's kuchera was solid and the eps did a fantastic job. Once I saw the nam last night with it's thermals and that fgen I knew if we could stay could enough it could overperform. I really knew this morning when I saw DC snowing and sticking.
  7. 15 points
    Sorry I’ve been mia, as in Scotland and Ireland for the last 2 weeks!!! Only 1 day of rain, and every day was sunny with 55-65°. Just stunning and extremely lucky! Sadly, no golf though. Too much stuff with the wife to do and my cousin as well. Ireland was a family reunion/ my sister’s wedding. Sorry @tombo82685 scottish highlands!
  8. 15 points
    Lot of trees down heading out to work. Schools now closed. A few pics this am.
  9. 15 points
  10. 15 points
    I was truly overcome with emotion this holiday , my only child gave birth to a handsome ( Looks like me ) baby boy on 12/17. I'm now a proud Pop Pop!
  11. 14 points
  12. 14 points
    Looks around 5" , here are a few pics from before the storm and during the storm. The drive home was a slow go last night.
  13. 14 points
    Wouldnt put my guard down NW of the fall line (ie @Qtown Snow), despite some sobering (for weenies like me) output from key models. Historically, our more significant ice storms occur with less than ideal timing and placement of surface features. We have an extension of the primary high pressure, located north of the UP of Michigan, starting in a good spot for cold air draining in Quebec, but retreating NE as the low approaches. This develops some CAD, however, it's short time in a good position limits the depth of the cold pool, as noted by dew points in the teens and twenties, rising as the high retreats and low approaches Many ice events have primary lows riding up into the WV area. As the primary rides up the western side of the Apps, and warm mid-level air rides over the Apps, and the shallow pool of cold air to the east, we typically see an inverted trough form along the coast. A difference between the colder NAM and warmer Euro are the depiction of the inverted trough placement. The EURO essentially indicates the CAD is so shallow/weak it's not feeling enough of an influence, so the cold is scoured more readily, thus reflecting a farther north inverted trough/baroclinic zone (where warmer ocean air meets CAD). This has merit as the cold pool was not well established. NAM on the other hand holds onto the CAD longer and shows a more pronounced inverted trough and farther south baroclinic zone. To the south of the inverted trough are warm southerly surface winds. To the north are cold NE surface winds, that typically lock in colder temperatures. See the difference in the inverted trough plavement and effevt on surface wind direction: In these marginal setups, PHL typically turns to rain. Far NW locks in cold longer than expected. Im not sharing anything new here, I wanted to highlight the importance of the inverted trough placement. If NAM thermals are closer to reality, that NE surface flow will bring quite a mess, here's a sounding at the height of the precip to reflect it
  14. 13 points
    Back from the Adirondacks, warm with daily storms till thursday.
  15. 13 points
    Last night’s shelf cloud passing over OCNJ last night forced me to run to the beach with my camera as others were fleeing it 😂
  16. 13 points
    Nice rainbow at work this morning
  17. 13 points
    Near miss if one touched down. Coopersburg had a burst of hail.
  18. 13 points
    going through a few more pics, before sunrise
  19. 13 points
    It looked like about 5" in Towamencin before I hit the hay last night. NWS has a public rwading of 4.8 for Kulpsville (little town within Towamencin). Only needed a 2 hour delay dor schools. I rent and am not allowed to have any weather equipment outside. 😒😩 Otherwise, I'd be set up with a bunch of things and I'd join CoCorahs. I'll see if some BucksCo friends are interested on joining. Here's my pretty snow pic from this morning. A bunch of trees lost branches overnight. My property company will cut an entire tree down if it loses a branch, so Spring clean up will suck. 😔
  20. 13 points
    Little gigi with a chefs hat on this morning. Wonder what he’s cooking
  21. 13 points
  22. 13 points
    Looks beautiful here in Allentown
  23. 13 points
    Not sure if anyone has watched Ginger Zee’s new show Rescue Heroes on abc, but tomorrow’s episode is going to showcase a tornado that hit my hometown of Midlothian, Virginia last year. The tornado was produced as part of the remenants of Florence and touched down about 10 miles from where my family lives and where I grew up. Unfortunately there was one fatality. The show will also have some interviews with the local fire department which I feel is a part of my family. My dad retired as a Batallion Chief with Chesterfield County Fire and EMS after 35 years of service. If you are interested, the show comes on tomorrow, Saturday 1/19/19 at 11 am on abc. Enjoy!
  24. 13 points
    About as good as I can get from my phone through my daughter's telescope 😅
  25. 13 points
    About 10.5” storm total. It is bone chilling cold outside right now too with these wind chills.
  26. 12 points
    Amish Country never disappoints. Faint rainbow through massive storm clouds, then a stormy sunset.
  27. 12 points
    Some grabs some deco. Not a bad little storm.
  28. 12 points
    Today was Nooch's (he still loves snow and cold weather) graduation from Rowan. This is needless to say, but his parents are proud of him! Picture of Nooch and a couple of his high school friends that he shared a house with the last two years in Glassboro. I think Sean (left most person) gets to keep the Eagles flag.
  29. 12 points
    And the finish product. This was done a week or so ago
  30. 12 points
    My wife and I took our daughter to see Double Dare Live in Lancaster last night. She was too young to get called up on stage...but we weren't Living a childhood dream, Marc Summers picked us to come up on stage and do a physical challenge--we beat the "yutes" for the adult team.
  31. 12 points
    I need at least some snow tomorrow, it is only fitting for me to become a new father with some snow falling. We are scheduled to leave for the hospital tonight--well before anything starts, thankfully.
  32. 12 points
  33. 12 points
    Baxter loves snow, tastes great, from today
  34. 12 points
  35. 12 points
  36. 12 points
    winter 2018-19 March will Rock!!!!
  37. 12 points
  38. 12 points
  39. 12 points
  40. 11 points
    I happened to be near Route 77 at Pole Tavern when the line was moving through. I was following it across from Cecil and New Castle on radar, and was wondering why a SVR was not issued for the powerful wind signature near Salem City at the time around 7:45 PM. Thought about heading into the open fields to watch the line cross, but did not want to risk not having a place to get out of the way in case of the damaging winds. Stayed in Pole Tavern and got the alert for a tornado warning, so decided to head back north on 77 after the rain stopped. The videos I have are from one mile south of the Gloucester/Salem border on Route 77. One is looking north toward Mullica Hill, which was about five to eight miles north of the location. Video #1: Pole Tavern 8:12-8:13 PM Video #2: Route 77 Eight miles south of Mullica Hill 8:16-8:17 PM Video #3: 8:20 PM Video #4: 8:24 PM Pole Tavern.MP4 Meso.MP4 Sky.MP4 Rainbow.MP4
  41. 11 points
    Whew! Had a couplet come right over West Chester and I was able to get this video. Definite rotation in the clouds, although hard to see in the video. And that eerie green color.
  42. 11 points
    Wayne is a member from Cape May. Spoken to him many a time at Mount Holly. Congrats Wayne!
  43. 11 points
    Beautiful day in West Caln
  44. 11 points
    Why do people get so worked up over the nws products, I don't get it. People need to flipping relax, jeez yikes. We all look at the same stuff. We know between 295 and 202 corridor is the battlezone. Different people, different thoughts, let it be
  45. 11 points
  46. 11 points
    Man a lot of jumpers already. I mean I'll be there soon but not till saturday
  47. 11 points
    A few pics from beautiful West Caln Township today.
  48. 11 points
  49. 11 points
    Couple of leaf shots from the hood today: Perfect fall day for a long stroll along the canal, Delaware River was really rolling through Solebury Twp. from all that rain upstream. The flow downstream at Trenton easily surpassed the previous max flow for the date. a couple canal shots in Central Bucks
  50. 11 points
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