So we have a big battle for how the pattern plays out for first half on NOV. We have the MJO going into phase 7 right now, than into phase 8 before going into the COD then phase 2 as it stands now. Phase 7 for oct features somewhat of a southeast ridge with most of the cold in center of the country. By Nov phase 8 is a cooler pattern with best chance of colder in the northern plains and New England. Phase 2 has a higher correlation here for cold. Effects from phase 2 wouldn't be felt till probably the middle of November. So going just off the MJO, it's a back and forth pattern, favoring warmth a little.
If we then look at the GLAAM it's forecasted to dive pretty strongly into Nina phase, which promotes a -PNA and ridge on the east coast. Fighting that though, we have another recurving Typhoon next week. That in turn causes a wavebreak in the Pacific and pops a strong -epo look again. Which would dislodge any cold in Alaska and send it south into the US. It does depend on where this ridge forms too. If it's out in the Bering Sea then its the West and center of country for cold. If it's over Alaska mainland with trough in Bering Sea then its center of country into the east.
The big low that is suppose to form this weekend is going to create a big upper level low that migrates northward towards the NAO region. So we won't get any help from nao area in terms of blocking for a colder pattern. In contrary though. The big -epo look that could form may push up into the north pole displacing the surface PV on our side of the globe down towards Baffin island and the statospheric PV towards Scandinavia. So we get help there from a -ao. This is a wave 1 hit on the stratosphere arguing for a colder/gradient like pattern with a fight between se ridge and flow around the PV. We don't get much help from the pna region due to the low GLAAM state, so the se ridge will be around too.
For now I like my seasonable to slightly above pattern for the east for the first half of NOV. But I think there is a threat it could go below normal if the -epo pops in the right spot and keeps getting reinforced by tropical convection induced wave breaks in the Pacific. I don't see a torch type pattern though, thats for sure.