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Showing content with the highest reputation since 03/22/2019 in all areas

  1. 10 points
    My wife and I took our daughter to see Double Dare Live in Lancaster last night. She was too young to get called up on stage...but we weren't Living a childhood dream, Marc Summers picked us to come up on stage and do a physical challenge--we beat the "yutes" for the adult team.
  2. 8 points
    My prediction of how the TonyFV3 snowmap will look for the Thanksgiving 2019 storm.
  3. 7 points
    Im getting married, and I’m abusing my moderator powers to open this thread for selfish reasons 🤣 Sooo yea, I’ve been following Friday like a hawk ever since it showed up on day 16 on the gfs. Need some reassurance that this warm front isn’t gonna slow down and put me on the wrong side of it. If it does, gotta love the wedding from inside to outside. (60-65 is the cut off) Saw the euro last night . Reduced the warm front : Ps, I’ll delete after Sunday
  4. 7 points
    I’m out your way, clouds are putting up a battle but still 70+.
  5. 7 points
    As an indication of the strength of the storm, yesterday evening in Middletown, DE, I saw the most intense rainbow ever and a double to boot! The photo doesn't do it justice.
  6. 5 points
    Anyway the reason I don't usually post beyond day 5 often is that I don't have the skill to differentiate between the real deals and the many false alarms that computer models forecast at this range. The greatest number of 6" or more events as measured at PHL in any winter since 1949-50 is four. The climo average is close to 1. How many day 9 blitzes did the Euro alone have this winter? But next winter I will try to be more active in this thread regardless. I did a presentation before I retired about increasing confidence in a longer forecast term event and these are points IIRC that I found useful in no ranking order: 1) A negative NAO or a protracted negative NAO that is outlooked to go positive. This latter one has been big. This takes care of the 50/50 low, tough to have a lingering 50/50 low and a positive NAO. 2) A positive PNA. It can snow without it, but Rockies ridge has been drilled into my brain from practically day 1 for some reason. I believe CPC analogs are PNA driven, which leads us to: 3) KU dates showing up on 6-10 or 8-14 day analogs. I also look for even run of the mill snows, the more the better. 4) Zonal Available Potential Energy positive. This is GFS based & not sure if it has a positive bias at longer forecast times, but KU or larger events have occurred when this is positive. It probably has a tendency to be more positive during el ninos. http://jasoncordeira.weebly.com/atmospheric-energy.html. 5) A global wind relative atmospheric angular momentum > -1. Unless we are in a moderate or strong la nina this is normally not a problem. Phases 7 & 8 have been the best. 6) Deterministic outcomes that come & go on all of the models. If just one model "has it", it doesn't seem to work. The days of the Euro grabbing the brass ring may be gone and lately the Euro has been better at being Dr. No than Dr. Yes. Last time I recall the Euro outforecasting all other models at this forecast range for our area is maybe February 2014?
  7. 5 points
    Once the sun came out and the wind died down a bit, beautiful day in NYC. We went to The Trolls Experience, in case you are wondering
  8. 5 points
    That would be Tony 1.0 on a good day, FV3Tony is more like: BTW this was the control run of the Euro on 3/11/19, I didn't make the map up.
  9. 4 points
    I'm for that, torch in april is like 65-70, we take. Now torch in june-august no thanks
  10. 4 points
    I'll save you the trouble, most soils around here are acidic, so you need Lime due to all the rain and they are also high in Phosphorous low in potassium
  11. 4 points
    Seed will not do anything right now, so IMO its pointless to seed and definitely fertilize. Why put fertilizer down when nothing is growing right now to even absorb the nutrients? It will just run right off, so it's a waste. Once you do your first mowing of the year then it's time to start seeding. So we are looking at probably 2nd week or so of April. If you're going to do seed you have from Mid April till mid May to get the seed established. You have to put crabgrass stuff down before Memorial Day and that stops any seed growth that didn't take hold. You are most likely going to have weed issues as well in any area that doesn't take that good due to the disruption of soil bringing all the weed seeds to the surface. If you still want to go ahead and do it, if you have a sunny yard go with a blend of tall fescue, bluegrass, ryegrass, then some fine fescue. When looking at the seed bag, make sure the highest percentages are in the order I gave you.
  12. 4 points
    I think they are really calling this one the TonyFV3, twice as snowy as Tony 1.0.
  13. 4 points
    you know prospects weren't high in people's minds when Tony is the only one posting in here lol. A for effort Tony.
  14. 3 points
    Heisey has gone into summer hibernation & green out has begun Officially Spring in my book Perfect 10 today
  15. 3 points
    This thread made me think that a TopGolf meetup might not be a bad idea at some point. Even the "non golfers" can hack away and have some fun while 19th holing the entire time...
  16. 3 points
    Birds acquired Jordan Howard for 6th rd pick, we like
  17. 3 points
    He was behind us, there were some monster drives. BTW when I warm up, my drives reach the fairway.
  18. 3 points
  19. 3 points
    Count me in! Looking forward to meeting the crew. This will be about three weeks after the due date for our second child so I have a built-in excuse for my poor play
  20. 3 points
    Yes Tom is very busy this time of year. Actually in the process of building a senior tee at work from scratch
  21. 3 points
    Heisey is going to tell me to calm down.
  22. 3 points
  23. 3 points
    Just remember to say I do on the big day and always remember to say you are right & I am wrong and you will do fine.
  24. 2 points
  25. 2 points
    he won't see this till next winter, so remind him