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Showing content with the highest reputation since 09/21/2018 in all areas

  1. 10 points
    Couple of weenie thoughts on Enso and winter. First, the best "all-in-one" link for Enso is this one. It's got a ton of sites linked to it so you don't have to go looking around: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html Second, I don't think we need to worry about the Nino fading. If you go to that link and scroll down to the 850 Zonal Wind Anomalies, they are very positive for some real warming east of the date line (180 degrees for those that may not know.) I've been watching it for months and the 7 day GFS forecast (top one of the 2 850 wind maps) is all fired up with dark oranges/brown to the east of the dateline, which means anonymously westerly winds that should translate into decent to aggressive warming over the next 7 days. Moreover, the 30 day CFS 850 wind map is showing an extended period of westerly winds along the equator. It wasn't like that for the last few weeks, but as the 7-day map has shown better westerlies the last few days, the 30-day map has responded noticeably imho. That "new" westerly/warming signal is showing up on the daily CFS Sea Surface Tamp Anomaly forecasts (see below), as the CFS had toned down 3.4 SSTA last week and since Sunday has ramped them back up to +1C where it had been before last week. At this point, we just need to hope that tropical forcing comes in west of the dateline. Wes (Usetobe) over at Americanwx has stated for years that's where we in the MA need it to be, though he is DC centric. Of course, that makes sense because that forcing would correspond to the warmest temps in 3.4-4 and that would be your Modoki Nino by definition. And not that I put any real stock into it, but it is a bit satisfying to see multiple days of decent Nino winters showing up in the Super Computer analog composites Day 11. There are always some duds in there, but for days it's had multiple appearances on the same day for decent winters. Last few days it was 02/03, today is 86/87. So, at this point, I believe we are where we want to be with regard to Enso. I think the QBO appears positive for "blockiness" over the pole and the solar cycle looks to compliment that, not that I claim to have any special knowledge other than an east qbo and low solar radiation tend to favor blockiness over the pole. With the seasonal forecasts from the various models looking darn good as well to this point, I've become a scared weenie waiting for October's runs-Euro in particular (fwiw, Cansip monthlies aren't that bad and show a decent amount of High pressure to our north.) You guys in Philly should be feeling pretty good since even if a weak Nino, your NE location is favored more so than down BWI way. But I like my chances too. Let's hope the updated Euro forecast doesn't crush hopes in a few days.
  2. 8 points
  3. 8 points
  4. 8 points
    Beautiful day out in Amish Country. Air is cool but sun still warm.
  5. 8 points
    From Delco earlier. Little meso passed by: Time lapse of the meso: 8979E824-57EC-4FD4-8D13-2B8C9A349A02.MOV On the right, above the white car, was an inflow notch feedijgninfo the updraft. Left side of pic, just right if the building (Wawa), scud lifting into the base. No real wall cloud in this pic, but you could tell there was rotation. Left side of pic here, above the gas canopy, you can see the RFD (rear flank downdraft) pretty well defined. Nothing too exciting, but interesting nonetheless.
  6. 6 points
  7. 6 points
  8. 5 points
  9. 5 points
    40s club possibly begin Sunday morning for burbs
  10. 5 points
    Tides ran high ytday on Tilghman
  11. 5 points
    Walking around Peddlers Village in Lahaska, PA. Scarecrow festival is happening. This is one scary Wonder Woman. There is a lot wrong with this display.
  12. 5 points
  13. 5 points
    Just got home from Orlando last night and they said on TV that they just had their 95th 90+ day this season, normal is 110. All things relative... 94/95 every day this week with 74-77 dewpoint. At least the daily thunderstorms backed off in coverage since earlier in the summer. Not sure why people migrate to Florida to retire so you can spend most of your time indoors.
  14. 4 points
    the guy had over 300 yds passing, but lets say wentz is mediocre. The 2ndry lost that game, end of story.
  15. 4 points
    Three more photos from my Sept 30th flight. I believe this is Walpack Bend on the Delaware. My pilot and I like flying the Delaware. Excuse the reflections of stuff inside the airplane. 😉 Tyler
  16. 4 points
    More photos from my flight with my pilot friend to the Delaware Water Gap on September 30th. Flying from NJ towards PA. Photos in order (I hope): (1) Delaware River about three minutes before we got to the Water Gap; (2) Mt. Tammany on right, (3) Mt Tammany, (4) Mt Minsi, and (5) closeup Mt Minsi. Tyler P.S. a couple of the photos have reflections, this happens to me sometimes when taking photos from an airplane.
  17. 4 points
    Does nice weather deserve its own obs. thread? Maybe not, but after the stretch we've been having I need this to keep my sanity. Lets discuss and rejoice about the weekend where 2 actual nice days look likely! We will have to contend with low clouds/fog Saturday morning due to light winds and residual low level moisture. Once that burns off Saturday morning it should be a nice afternoon regionwide. Models have been hinting at a weak front dropping south toward the area Sunday but as of now it appears to have little or no impact. We should enjoy dewpoints in the 40s and 50s allowing lows by early Sunday morning to drop into the 40s in our normally colder locations with most other areas dropping well down into the 50s. Highs should range from the 60s in higher elevations to low to mid-70s along the coastal plain. Looks like just a brief taste of autumn as both temps. and dewpoints rise starting early next week as a ridge builds over the eastern U.S. again. Hopefully that ridge will keep any rain threats to our north/west next week allowing for a few extra days to dry out.
  18. 4 points
  19. 4 points
  20. 4 points
    Can't wait till Saturday 9:54 p.m.
  21. 3 points
    I agree, October is the best month of the year.
  22. 3 points
  23. 3 points
    Happy "Nice Fall Weekend" to everyone. We are up near Raystown Lake for Juniata College homecoming.
  24. 3 points
    I kind of dig this one (especially since the sky was actually clear and not pouring rain like it seems to have incessantly been here). This is a 25 second exposure of the night sky showing the colors of our galaxy. I shot this on my back patio up in the finger lakes. The night sky is a different place without light pollution. Milky Way by Josh, on Flickr
  25. 3 points
    Last beach day of the season in N. Wildwood, ocean water was really warm yesterday, cooled of a hair today with some fresh west winds this morning. Took until this afternoon for DP's to start dropping down here. Quite humid until 1:00-2:00.