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Showing content with the highest reputation since 11/09/2019 in all areas

  1. 12 points
    My view in Florida today happy to be far away from this bust 😅
  2. 8 points
    He says the Canadians usually do the best with the Norlun features, but that is greatest among a modeling weakness. A nowcast event it is for PHL metro area, in general from about a Paul House/PHL/ACY Expressway newd for some Norlun enhancement and north of I78ish/I80 for sure they say, we don't care, we snow. So in conclusion all I feel confident about is: The ICON will have the coldest boundary layer temps, yet the least amount of snow. The GFS which spends most of the winter trying to out ice the ICeON will once again have the warmest boundary layer temps during a precip event saying what snow. The UKMET will have the wettest solution by far. Why a model that is good has to be that wet idk. Australia thanks its forecasts as the entire continent is planned for a lush paradise going forward. The Canadians will "likely" come closest to the norlun enhancement. Its December 1st, the sun angle sucks, so no need to roll out if only it snowed at night. Its December 1st, ground temperatures matter, but it hasn't been a week of 70s leading into this, so it matters less. Albany will not be NAMMed with 36". Today it's great to be retired and not have to sweat out the details, be thrown under the bus on social media and then be asked by the media question, "So was this a surprise????"
  3. 7 points
    Places you don't want to be: A.) The mall on Black Friday B.) At the Linc wearing a Cowboys jersey C.) I-78 in Berks County during a sleet storm D.) In the bullseye 5 days out
  4. 7 points
    Arctic front has cleared Key West, going down to the mid 60's tonight.
  5. 7 points
    Guess who comes out tomorrow, little gigi
  6. 7 points
    Cool shot of what I believe are asperitas clouds in Altoona.
  7. 6 points
    On a Christmas Note....this weekend was great to get stuff done both outside and inside the house - basement and outside done....still need to work on the family room. Happy Holidays to all!!
  8. 6 points
    Last bit of a nice morning before clouds move in ahead of today's rainmaker
  9. 4 points
    This seemed like the issue with what happened in my eyes. What we were rooting for, the more confluence, well it trended flatter. Thus, the flow offshore became a tiny bit flatter, pulled the ULL a bit further north and pushed the gradient offshore more.
  10. 4 points
    I’m up in the Binghamton area this weekend. Wintry mix overnight with a small accumulation. Light snow currently.
  11. 4 points
    Eeee I disagree. November you have leaves changing, fall festive stuff to do. Thanksgiving and the holidays. March is the worst in my opinion. If you get snow it's gone the next day or that day. No foilage on any tree or shrub. You get a lot of cold rainy, cloudy days. Nothing to really look forward to
  12. 4 points
    Hilarious! I certainly didn't plan to be in Burlington, Vermont right now for the first 7-12" snow of the season up here and find myself in a Winter Storm Warning, but I'm glad I'm here for it right now! I know you guys talk of Bradford, PA and moving to other such spots, but this whole area might be absolutely perfect for snow lovers. I'm seriously trying to think of ways to be able to move up here!
  13. 3 points
    Might be just anecdotal but it feels like short range mesos really struggle with these ULL backend events. I remember with the Feb 2014 storm the HRRR was showing the heaviest banding around eastern Bucks/TTN, but ended up being like 50 miles west and crushing ABE to Chester Co
  14. 3 points
    This is what I'm thinking, tough forecast honestly. Was thinking of dialing 2-4 back to 1-3 but they could still get into main band
  15. 3 points
  16. 3 points
    Would be ironic if NYC gets dryslotted while Philly, Bucks S NJ etc get Meso'ed
  17. 3 points
    That’s November for ya. Worst month of the year in my books. Then we get the holidays/December and hopefully legit snow chances near or shortly thereafter.
  18. 3 points
    Lost my dog this year way way way too young. Do not hate the month please. Remember the good times and look forward if you want a new pup or just be happy for the dog you had. Dogs are furry friends we have for awhile to remind us that nothing lasts forever. Well, sorry for your loss regardless
  19. 2 points
    Anyways, Solid gfs run. Trough was a bit more amped and more interaction with energy in south. So it seems we stopped the broadening of trough/less energy interaction trend thankfully. Nice snow map. Remember outside of weenie bands this is probably high as precip will be wasted getting temps close to freezing and warm ground to start. Falling at night helps a ton
  20. 2 points
    Nonstop parade of storms incoming on 12z gefs, every 3-4 days. In theory, a departing storm could drop the battle zone to our south for a subsequent storm to follow along, especially if that initial storm blows up around 50/50. I'm already shoveling the potential!
  21. 2 points
    Hopefully it doesn’t slip on a banana peel
  22. 2 points
    He's just depressed that the CRAS model was retired. Plus we haven't had any sideways Korean models posted yet.
  23. 2 points
    6z euro hints at more of an expansive ccb than a narrow IVT.
  24. 2 points
    Good luck everyone back home, I'll be laboring thru 84 degree weather at the eagles game 😎
  25. 2 points
    The Moon/Venus/Jupiter/Saturn conjunction was breathtaking on Thanksgiving night. Can't remember ever seeing that much earthshine on the moon.
  26. 2 points
    Nothing screams snowstorm like having a 570dm ridge out ahead of this strong piece of energy that magically tracks due east to east southeast. Yea I'm selling.
  27. 2 points
  28. 2 points
    I love living in "LA LA Land"... IF we can generate enough snow on Thanksgiving Day then I there will be plenty of leftovers for me.
  29. 2 points
  30. 1 point
    Thanks, Tom! Looks solid.
  31. 1 point
    Wow, my eyes are playing tricks on this old man. I thought the one said " Bedroom Hero"
  32. 1 point
    Euro spreads some love around all areas
  33. 1 point
    Can't have one of these threads without a VAY > Gilly snowfall prediction: (Monmouth County snowfall max as a bonus).
  34. 1 point
    I've post marked that gif to you. Just as the sloth yawn is to me
  35. 1 point
    Anafrontal wave picked up some steam overnight as both gfs and euro sped up the s/w responsible for it as well as deepening trough. Now we have to work on timing with cold air with it which is always a challenge.
  36. 1 point
    It is twofold, farther away from the coast and also an increase in elevation (de facto colder).
  37. 1 point
  38. 1 point
    Frontogenesis still there at 850mb. It is shallow (but better than nothing), doesn't show up at 700mb.
  39. 1 point
    Some props for the ukie is this stays south.
  40. 1 point
  41. 1 point
    Not bad for November. Guessing we were outside the 10% threat zone yesterday.
  42. 1 point
    12z GFS is nice and tucked in. Keeps the low continuing to move SE after this frame, certainly an unusual path. H5 energy is a bit slower and further south.
  43. 1 point
    Nice man. I’m blowing through Bretton Woods on my way to Pittsburg on Wednesday night to deer hunt the Great White North logging lands.
  44. 1 point
    Since we are soft, I guess highs around 60 qualify as cold air also.
  45. 1 point
    Even with cyber snow storms VAY > Gilly.
  46. 1 point
    If we can get a legit 50/50 low to combat the se ridge around the dec 2nd timeframe, that could be an interesting period to watch. Need to have that 50/50 low in the right spot. Low chance right now, but there is a threat. In general that dec 2nd-7th period could offer chances if the h5 look is right
  47. 1 point
    Beautiful track.... (primary into sw pa is meh), but man... what a waste! Better antecedent air mass and this would of been nice.
  48. 1 point
    I think the Pacific SST Anomaly looks better than just three weeks ago. The cold water along the west coast that Tombo didn’t like, is almost gone. The warm pool has also moved East, while the PDO looks a little better?
  49. 1 point
    I feel like we should just lock this up and carry everything into the winter thread. Your call.
  50. 1 point
    Below is my 2019-20 Winter Forecast temps/snowfall for Western Chester County PA. My forecast assumes a neutral ENSO plus warmer N Pacific SSTs and analog winters with these conditions (more ridge W trough E) overall snowier/slightly colder - if like last year....it will be far from accurate - enjoy! Hope others post their ideas/forecasts
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