Rainshadow

To Nor'easter Or Not To Nor'easter, That Is The Question

22 posts in this topic

This (a western atlantic low) has been on the model's radar for a while.  Today's 12z Euro run (red below) would have the greatest impact in our area of the big 4 come early next week.

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

This (a western atlantic low) has been on the model's radar for a while.  Today's 12z Euro run (red below) would have the greatest impact in our area of the big 4 come early next week.

 

yea brought some rain for the region this run. EPS show some potential too. 

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

yea brought some rain for the region this run. EPS show some potential too. 

We could use one of these systems to outperform.

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8 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

We could use one of these systems to outperform.

Agreed. Creeks are getting low.

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Coming back from Florida on Saturday, a face slap back to reality.

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Sunday's what was gonna be a soaker at one time is fading south. Hope we do get some coastal influence next. Its close.

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NAM back north, euro still south, eps are joyous for all

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Interesting to see how if any tropical involvement occurs with the Caribbean now. EPS indicate another potential for subtropical TD formation. 

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Approximate positions on Tuesday evening (the lows I had to "draw in"), onshore onslaught regardless...

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Op models showing tendency toward coastal storm Tue-Wed. 

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Models are pretty similar. CAN GGEM (didnt check qpf) strongest with low so assuming its also wettest.

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For three days of rain the QPF is -_-

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44 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

For three days of rain the QPF is -_-

I'd sign up for the GFS & NAM solution vs the GGEM, (not that it matters regarding the outcome).  The former would be great for the garden, the latter we'd just run more of it off.

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3 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I'd sign up for the GFS & NAM solution vs the GGEM, (not that it matters regarding the outcome).  The former would be great for the garden, the latter we'd just run more of it off.

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Lots of runoff for Charlotte coming up model qpf near "6" the next 24 hours. 

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1 hour ago, Mitchg said:

Lots of runoff for Charlotte coming up model qpf near "6" the next 24 hours. 

How much of that actually makes it up here? That seems on the high side.

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Just now, tombo82685 said:

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this would send all of Tony's soil into the rancocas. 

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55 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

this would send all of Tony's soil into the rancocas. 

:(

 

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outside of the gfs, everything in consensus for an inch or more of rain. 

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3 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

outside of the gfs, everything in consensus for an inch or more of rain. 

You just want to see my dirt end up in Delran.

 

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Looking like a candian  and UKMET model victory yet again with the west track and qpf. Both models undervalued. 

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50 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

Looking like a candian  and UKMET model victory yet again with the west track and qpf. Both models undervalued. 

You probably can also add the gfs's "handling" of the weekend cough cough cough back door cold front to that list.  This version of the model cant go away fast enough.

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