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Rainshadow

Newer GFS Coming To A Theatre Near You on July 19th.

14 posts in this topic

This is the plan:

GFS - 30-day IT stability test scheduled to begin in May; Implementation scheduled for
mid-June. SCN will be released in early May.
 
 
I think this is the last pre-Sandy money GFS tweak, anyway ever so slight improvement past 30 days vs current version.
 
cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.pngvc.png.7614bfd8ceb0db1e985f1e242d3f4035.pngcor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png.8225950e52d7973762f174eb5b82efe4.png
 
 
 
 

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still worlds behind the euro

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12 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

still worlds behind the euro

But, sneaking past the GGEM!

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If this new GFS can eliminate some of the absurdly cold OP solutions that the current OP GFS has done this April (and last April too), I'm all for it.  The current OP GFS had a run (and multiple runs with sub freezing mins in PHL proper) with a predicted 519 thickness for this weekend (4/15 & 4/16).  Current (4/14) GFS MOS predicted high for Sunday 4/16 in PHL is 83.

 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.thumb.png.0a47ac1cc1260e6daaa8264bc1d28244.png

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.thumb.png.8c385409f607925cb96fb0eec18b667d.png

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Just tripped across the 24hr and 48hr 850mb bias over the conus for current GFS for past march.  Enough said, if its this cold after 48hrs.....

t850_f24_us_bias.gif.cae72dd30a3711afc577d148780065c8.gif

t850_f48_us_bias.gif.145ee772a92c0c8e2a51553d4bd1988f.gif

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New GFS (yellow) looks like it should fix the perpetual 2m temp cold bias:

Capture.thumb.JPG.ea520daeed9e005a6b36775383efb830.JPG

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On 5/8/2017 at 7:46 AM, Rainshadow said:

New GFS (yellow) looks like it should fix the perpetual 2m temp cold bias:

Capture.thumb.JPG.ea520daeed9e005a6b36775383efb830.JPG

PHL mins were 43 & 45, new GFS routs present GFS.

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Upgrade implementation mid to late June.   One thing we know it will be better with...

Capture.jpgl.thumb.jpg.cee4959465c341e361965ec27df7ea5c.jpg

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I don't think so:  (Yes 0-1% sky cover and convective measurable showers)

Capture.JPGffffffff.thumb.JPG.d5be3756c3b26a665b330545a4b79935.JPG

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Its not about the idea (after all tropical systems in the Gulf in June are not absurd), its about where does one go with the idea.  BTW there are more out there now in la la land.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.thumb.png.ffcbd9487b34c106cdb12d8fcb5faad6.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_1.thumb.png.18b68ce923e8e1b8a5930e49bfa50152.png

See you later, don't linger on my account.  Never liked this upgrade created as many bumps in the rugs in our area as it solved.

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Dont know the 2m bias, but with the current GFS this would be four consecutive days in the 100s:

gfsp_T2m_neus_39.thumb.png.877b7303c626d8a6884330031fab1c7b.png

gfsp_T2m_neus_42.thumb.png.28ca80dc6121b3b8fed0a3b354d2d73b.png

gfsp_T2m_neus_44.thumb.png.5e710e3f82956e063f8c8e17fdca409c.png

gfsp_T2m_neus_46.thumb.png.3361a4c5b95fffa8e67838a92d7aec12.png

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On 6/10/2017 at 8:57 AM, Rainshadow said:

Dont know the 2m bias, but with the current GFS this would be four consecutive days in the 100s:

gfsp_T2m_neus_39.thumb.png.877b7303c626d8a6884330031fab1c7b.png

gfsp_T2m_neus_42.thumb.png.28ca80dc6121b3b8fed0a3b354d2d73b.png

gfsp_T2m_neus_44.thumb.png.5e710e3f82956e063f8c8e17fdca409c.png

gfsp_T2m_neus_46.thumb.png.3361a4c5b95fffa8e67838a92d7aec12.png

Well, this thankfully didnt work, maybe two around 90 days at best.

Speaking of not working, NHC will not be happy if (non la la land) solutions like this are more the norm than the exception:

nhc.thumb.png.0b2a46a7cd610906de9e7850554713b6.png

 

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