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Rainshadow

Generic Thunderstorms, 2017 Version

60 posts in this topic

Just now, tombo82685 said:

gfs says some moisture later on.. euro says, think again best chance is tomorrow afternoon and that is minuscule at best and mainly south of i78

Euro stinks with convection, so I will hug the thunderstormiest solution.

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Marginal risk for tomorrow from nw burbs on south and east

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42 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Marginal risk for tomorrow from nw burbs on south and east

Reads like classic collapses before it gets here tonight & gets going southeast of us tomorrow.

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8 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Reads like classic collapses before it gets here tonight & gets going southeast of us tomorrow.

No more storms for VAy till Feb of 2018

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Bad timing on front passage. Need early initiation today.

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18 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Bad timing on front passage. Need early initiation today.

Yup, reads like congrats Delmarva, Cape May.

 

 

ecfp.V2017051918-2017052000.gif

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Odds for today look a little better now. SPC pushed the marginal north: 

Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic and New England...
   Low severe probabilities have been extended northward into parts of
   southern New England, where the pre-frontal environment now appears
   at least conditionally supportive of storms capable of producing
   severe wind/hail.

Storms starting to develop further west and MLCape is over 2000 locally. I am headed to the shore this afternoon - which further increases the odds of a local storm

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51 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Odds for today look a little better now. SPC pushed the marginal north: 


Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic and New England...
   Low severe probabilities have been extended northward into parts of
   southern New England, where the pre-frontal environment now appears
   at least conditionally supportive of storms capable of producing
   severe wind/hail.

Storms starting to develop further west and MLCape is over 2000 locally. I am headed to the shore this afternoon - which further increases the odds of a local storm

IDK, west surface winds (not to mention falling dew points) not great for storm relative inflow.

Last couple of hrrrs are verifying too hot.  This 13z run (12z run also) looked closer to 18z reality.  This was around peak coverage in Philly metro.

hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_7.thumb.png.6ab0731ddafa67eccaac965bb59095a5.png

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4 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

IDK, west surface winds (not to mention falling dew points) not great for storm relative inflow.

Last couple of hrrrs are verifying too hot.  This 13z run (12z run also) looked closer to 18z reality.  This was around peak coverage in Philly metro.

 

good call Mr Gigi, seems like you know what you're talking about. 

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12 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

good call Mr Gigi, seems like you know what you're talking about. 

You know what they say about stopped clocks and 1b4c058ce7f75d47c9c5846011908d34.jpg.1a16b13dc422f672b1845392187cf6c8.jpg

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