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Rainshadow

Generic Thunderstorms, 2017 Version

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This is the current Friday (Feb 24th) convective outlook.  Thunder looks possible for our area on Saturday.  Right now we are not mentioned in any severe risk by the SPC.

day3otlk_0830.gif

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5 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

This is the current Friday (Feb 24th) convective outlook.  Thunder looks possible for our area on Saturday.  Right now we are not mentioned in any severe risk by the SPC.

day3otlk_0830.gif

Which is a good sign for severe in our area. 

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Marginal in Delmarva for tomorrow, looks rather -_-

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17 hours ago, Mitchg said:

Marginal in Delmarva for tomorrow, looks rather -_-

It wasn't a big deal down here this morning, but then again it wasn't the usual cracks of thunder, a wind gust and sprinkles, either.

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Thunderstorms with hail and temps around 40 last night. Wild stuff.

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Day 6 severe ... April Fools? ;)

 

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sat Apr 01 2017 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

 

...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output continues to suggest that significant amplification is possible within the upper flow across North America during the middle to latter portion of next week, downstream of a strong mid-latitude Pacific jet which is forecast to begin to shift inland across the Pacific coast. Within this regime, increased phasing of a pair is significant short wave impulses (one turning east of the southern U.S. Rockies and another digging southeast of the Canadian Rockies) is expected to lead to large-scale upper trough amplification over the eastern U.S. by late week. This appears likely to be accompanied by significant surface cyclogenesis from the lee of the southern U.S. Rockies through the Ohio Valley Tuesday/Wednesday, and to the lee of the central Appalachians into northern Mid Atlantic Coastal areas Thursday/Friday.

 

These developments probably will contribute to support for at least some severe weather potential over a fairly broad area of the central and eastern U.S., from the central Plains Tuesday into parts of the lower Ohio Valley and Southeast Wednesday, and the Atlantic Seaboard by Friday. In the wake of a preceding cyclone, uncertain moisture return tempers severe probabilities at this time from the Plains into the Ohio Valley.

 

More substantive moisture return and potential for destabilization is evident across parts of the southeast Wednesday into to Wednesday night. However, greatest confidence in a substantive organized severe thunderstorm risk appears across the Mid Atlantic region on Thursday, coinciding with most significant surface cyclone deepening and strengthening of lower/mid tropospheric wind fields. This may include southerly 850 mb flow strengthening to 50-70 kt, contributing to strong to extreme low-level shear supportive of considerable thunderstorm wind damage potential, along with a risk for tornadoes.

 

 

 

4B366457-0059-443B-8C8E-3EB5357BEF69-26619-000027FA56255AF0.gif

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I could possibly see some storms on tuesday. Just going off the gfs, looks like we warm sector with temps getting into the 70s with some instability to boot. LLJ as of now isn't all that great with some alright shear around. Looks like if storms do fire most would be below severe levels but some could reach it. 

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42 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I could possibly see some storms on tuesday. Just going off the gfs, looks like we warm sector with temps getting into the 70s with some instability to boot. LLJ as of now isn't all that great with some alright shear around. Looks like if storms do fire most would be below severe levels but some could reach it. 

Euro pretty much agrees, some scattered storms possible tues afternoon as we warm sector. DEWs in the low to mid 60s with CAPE. 

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The Thursday potential as Mitch alluded too has a much better LLJ, question there is do we get the instability?

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39 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

The Thursday potential as Mitch alluded too has a much better LLJ, question there is do we get the instability?

Predicted TTs both days around 50 would support ⚡☔ aloft even if we have surface issues.

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Predicted TTs both days around 50 would support ⚡☔ aloft even if we have surface issues.

I have a question ...

 

Do TTs show the potential for (perhaps strong) convection with numbers at 50 and higher even with poor CAPE?

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2 hours ago, Treckasec said:

I have a question ...

 

Do TTs show the potential for (perhaps strong) convection with numbers at 50 and higher even with poor CAPE?

You need three elements for thunderstorms, total totals especially over 50, are a proxy for an unstable atmosphere. Cape is more of an indicator of available moisture (second element). But the most important element is some sort of lifting mechanism, usually some boundary, whether surface or aloft. That's why on summer days when you have some really high capes, we can't buy a thunderstorm, no lifting mechanism.

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17 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

I could possibly see some storms on tuesday. Just going off the gfs, looks like we warm sector with temps getting into the 70s with some instability to boot. LLJ as of now isn't all that great with some alright shear around. Looks like if storms do fire most would be below severe levels but some could reach it. 

 

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Wayyy out there, but the GFS showing a high cape, decent shear day next Saturday. 

If anything, for posterity's sake:

 

IMG_3335.thumb.PNG.a43a958b3b49560c9bce941517457eb0.PNG

 

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16 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Wayyy out there, but the GFS showing a high cape, decent shear day next Saturday. 

If anything, for posterity's sake:

 

IMG_3335.thumb.PNG.a43a958b3b49560c9bce941517457eb0.PNG

 

Tom is looking forward to that 71 dew point. 

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26 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Wayyy out there, but the GFS showing a high cape, decent shear day next Saturday. 

If anything, for posterity's sake:

 

IMG_3335.thumb.PNG.a43a958b3b49560c9bce941517457eb0.PNG

 

Could just as easily be a backdoor front with another repeat of today. 

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32 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Tom is looking forward to that 71 dew point. 

I'll take the under on that Williamsburg dp

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Thursday looks to be capped and other than that funky looking 68 dew point (probably more like 60), all systems would be go....

Capture.JPGz.thumb.JPG.e3dab39cce7104bf2ca0db595bed2076.JPG

 

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5 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Thursday looks to be capped and other than that funky looking 68 dew point (probably more like 60), all systems would be go....

 

 

thats a pretty solid EML there, nice dry air punch just above the deck. 

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Might have to watch out for Saturday. Good daytime heating with instability, solid lapse rates, and decent shear. Would like to see a better LLJ and there is a little bit of a cap too.

 

gfs_2017042612_078_KPHL.png

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23 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Might have to watch out for Saturday. Good daytime heating with instability, solid lapse rates, and decent shear. Would like to see a better LLJ and there is a little bit of a cap too.

 

gfs_2017042612_078_KPHL.png

I was going to post it in the near 90 thread, the nam looks even juicier (if the cap is not that strong) and just about gets us to the convective temp (granted its in its la la land time).  Both models have rather ugly dew points.

Captuddre.thumb.JPG.cc3026dc7113035483a7d184c851ccf1.JPG

 

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The euro had nothing like the gfs, and I'm assuming it's probably to capped thus no storms. 18z gfs went that route. 

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14 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

The euro had nothing like the gfs, and I'm assuming it's probably to capped thus no storms. 18z gfs went that route. 

Latest NAM & GFS cut back on convective signal for Saturday. 

Wasted potential if we become cap casualties.  (I'm ok with that. Have a golf tourney sat) 

 

IMG_3411.PNG

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33 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Latest NAM & GFS cut back on convective signal for Saturday. 

Wasted potential if we become cap casualties.  (I'm ok with that. Have a golf tourney sat) 

 

 

Sucks cause that is a nice mid level lapse rates signal there

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