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Rainshadow

Meteorological Spring Discussion, Is There A Below Normal Month Out There?

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Well whether its wave 1 hits, the Costanza bizzaro world MJO Phase or the strat warming phase II, the CFS2 for now is starting the month of Smarch with a normal to cold look. 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_3.png

cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_4.png

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If there is a "pattern" to these monthly outlooks that is sticking, Canada is cold, southeastern conus is warm.
summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201703.gif

 

To which one can say, thank-you...

hotels-com-captain-obvious-please-go-away.jpg

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That first look on the cfs looks like cutter galore. The warm/wet, cold/dry look

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16 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

That first look on the cfs looks like cutter galore. The warm/wet, cold/dry look

Well the wet part would hopefully leave the cobwebs on the drought thread. 

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2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

 

Maybe we get a cool (which now means near normal) August out of this.

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

Maybe we get a cool (which now means near normal) August out of this.

we've actually had four below average AUG's over the past 10 yrs., the way things are going we may have used up our allotment for awhile

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1 hour ago, colonel_kurtz said:

we've actually had four below average AUG's over the past 10 yrs., the way things are going we may have used up our allotment for awhile

Can we then shoot for July?

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

Can we then shoot for July?

I shoot for the summer of 2000 every season, unfortunately my hopes are usually dashed by Flag Day

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CFS thoughts....

thanks stormvistawxmodels.com for sharing

 

2-16-2017 5-00-02 PM.jpg

2-16-2017 5-00-33 PM.jpg

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eps have a pretty decent cold shot around feb 27th tmeframe, but it only lasts a couple days before warmer air moves in again. They have a pretty solid -epo, but the ridge axis out west is offshore which would promote a higher chance of cutters. 

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Noticed that the CPC composite ensemble map centered on the 27th looks like cutter city, but not necessarily torchy. Maybe it's col/dry then warm/wet.

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13 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

Noticed that the CPC composite ensemble map centered on the 27th looks like cutter city, but not necessarily torchy. Maybe it's col/dry then warm/wet.

Yup, pretty much. Ridge position out west is offshore which would make for a storm track into the lakes. With the -epo though, you have to watch for big highs getting in the way of those lows which could cause some front end frozen stuff. But with no atlantic blocking there is nothing to keep the high from moving out. 

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21 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yup, pretty much. Ridge position out west is offshore which would make for a storm track into the lakes. With the -epo though, you have to watch for big highs getting in the way of those lows which could cause some front end frozen stuff. But with no atlantic blocking there is nothing to keep the high from moving out. 

Pretty much the story of this cold season has been -nao fail at longer forecast ranges.

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

Today's (2/17) GEFS flatter with -epo ridge once March starts, looks like cutter city.

 

pretty much same on EPS. Once towards the end of the period it looks less cutterish but the flow isn't a col one at all.  Euro had a shot at 70 later next week.

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Philadelphia bias corrected temp forecast. Active severe wx season and maybe second week in March is more wintry. 

March +3F

April +2.8F

May + 3.5F

mar3.png

apr1.png

may1.png

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1 hour ago, Mitchg said:

Philadelphia bias corrected temp forecast. Active severe wx season and maybe second week in March is more wintry. 

March +3F

April +2.8F

May + 3.5F

mar3.png

apr1.png

may1.png

Can't go wrong from now when you forecast 2 or 3 above normal!

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