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Qtown Snow

2nd Half Of Meteorological Winter Pattern Discussion, Where Feb Torches. :(

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14 minutes ago, Qtown Snow said:

one last push before we flip to 80's and 90's?

qtown grasping at any image he can find ;)

thanks stormvistawxmodels.com for sharing

 

 

2-16-2017 7-25-48 AM.png

It's not grasping unless it's hour 384 (or any hour on the JMA). 

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11 hours ago, irishbri74 said:

Looks like we'all end feb with an EPO regime coming in. Wave lengths  start to get shorter, but still think we'll see a cold shot to start March.

 

good news is PV isn't anywhere near what it was last year, so don't anticipate as cold a spring as last year. 

last spring was tied for the 6th warmest on record at Philly, MAR was a torch - top 5 warm

APR was slightly above & MAY was last below ave month

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With a more a more Nina look in the medium range, expect a stormy, warm pattern. 

 

Still chance for a brief cold shot here or there, (thought we had a window in the 7-10 day range, but not with -PNA look). With a follow up wave behind a cutter. But it could just be cutter city. 

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Would think the SOI crash and phase 8 MJO would yield us something before we march into calendar spring.

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From Walt Drag about Feb & Winter in PHL:

The following projection is for Philadelphia  
Using this mornings low of 33 and the NWS forecast through the
22nd (see SFTCTP), and then FTPRHA max/min for PHL D8-11, and
the normal the last two days of February (max min of 47/30) we
project a monthly average of 41.9 degrees at PHL (2 degrees
higher than the current first 15 day average). Normal for
February is 35.7 or a projection of 6.2 degrees above normal.
This would make February the 2nd warmest in our period of record
dating back to 1874. The warmest February on record was 42.2F
in 1925. Ninth warmest is 40.1 degrees, so you see that we have
1.7 degrees to give = be wrong, and still enjoy a top 10 warmest
February.
Winter (DJF)
PHL for the winter season (DJF) is projecting an average
of 39.6 degrees...the 9th warmest DJF in the period of record
dating back to 1873-1874. Room to give is 0.4 degrees on the down
side to #10 warmest winter. Essentially its going to take all of
at least a 1.2 degree warm side error to drop back to #10 warmest
seasonal average. While this could happen, am thinking via ensemble
guidance that this is unlikely.

 

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4 hours ago, irishbri74 said:

With a more a more Nina look in the medium range, expect a stormy, warm pattern. 

 

Still chance for a brief cold shot here or there, (thought we had a window in the 7-10 day range, but not with -PNA look). With a follow up wave behind a cutter. But it could just be cutter city. 

Yea I thought possibly after the 24th could of featured something but the ridge axis was in a much better spot 7 days ago then what it is showing up now as. The first half of march could offer a chance or two if the weeklies are right though. 

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3 hours ago, iceman56 said:

Would think the SOI crash and phase 8 MJO would yield us something before we march into calendar spring.

Yea you would think, but the MJO this has had little effect this year it seems. We have had very cold shot in torch phases and very warm shots in cold phases.  It's been all about the npac pattern IMO, thats been driving the pattern

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After the party crasher storm on 2/25-6, looks like three storms for the month flip (2/28, 3/2, 3/5 give or take). Pattern definitely more active to start March BUT all three are rain for Philly based on the mega long range GFS.

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Se ridge has trended stronger this morning on the modeling, day 8-9 is close to normal, otherwise much warmer than normal. :heat miser::heat miser:

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16 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

From Walt Drag about Feb & Winter in PHL:


The following projection is for Philadelphia  
Using this mornings low of 33 and the NWS forecast through the
22nd (see SFTCTP), and then FTPRHA max/min for PHL D8-11, and
the normal the last two days of February (max min of 47/30) we
project a monthly average of 41.9 degrees at PHL (2 degrees
higher than the current first 15 day average). Normal for
February is 35.7 or a projection of 6.2 degrees above normal.
This would make February the 2nd warmest in our period of record
dating back to 1874. The warmest February on record was 42.2F
in 1925. Ninth warmest is 40.1 degrees, so you see that we have
1.7 degrees to give = be wrong, and still enjoy a top 10 warmest
February.

Winter (DJF)
PHL for the winter season (DJF) is projecting an average
of 39.6 degrees...the 9th warmest DJF in the period of record
dating back to 1873-1874. Room to give is 0.4 degrees on the down
side to #10 warmest winter. Essentially its going to take all of
at least a 1.2 degree warm side error to drop back to #10 warmest
seasonal average. While this could happen, am thinking via ensemble
guidance that this is unlikely.

 

Amazing how warm the last two winters have been. Since February 14 sustained artic cold has been hard to come by. 

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7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Amazing how warm the last two winters have been. Since February 14 sustained artic cold has been hard to come by. 

With snow, we are pretty much going boom/bust now.

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12 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

With snow, we are pretty much going boom/bust now.

Why has the pv been parked over the pole the last two winter? It was weaker this year but another failed attempt to split it 

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8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Why has the pv been parked over the pole the last two winter? It was weaker this year but another failed attempt to split it 

I don't know.  Not sure if that qbo switch had some assistance.  The flip of the northeastern Pacific (if I was to WAG) during October and especially November sealed the deal. That Newfoundland pool (its now going to be correct 15 of the last 19 winters) method was correct about the nao being positive, so we needed a more boisterous Pacific to overrule and it didn't.

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16 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I don't know.  Not sure if that qbo switch had some assistance.  The flip of the northeastern Pacific (if I was to WAG) during October and especially November sealed the deal. That Newfoundland pool (its now going to be correct 15 of the last 19 winters) method was correct about the nao being positive, so we needed a more boisterous Pacific to overrule and it didn't.

I think the very strong qbo definitely helped. With strong qbo's it's not good for nao blocking or ao blocking. wih +qbo the best shot for pv splits is early on as the pv usually gains stam as the winter goes on. 

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Could be some storm next saturday with a strong low pressure passing to our nw and a big time outherly push of warm air out ahead of it. Euro has some CAPE around the area with temps getting close to 70.

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13 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Could be some storm next saturday with a strong low pressure passing to our nw and a big time outherly push of warm air out ahead of it. Euro has some CAPE around the area with temps getting close to 70.

Looks like a classic la-Nina wintertime squall line event away from the chilly ocean waters sometime Fri-Sat. Shear/Helicity off the charts, dewpoints in the 60's and CAPE of around 500 J/KG. 

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Would like to see a stronger LLJ, Fri night-Saturday only 50 knots on the 12z GFS. 

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5 hours ago, Mitchg said:

Would like to see a stronger LLJ, Fri night-Saturday only 50 knots on the 12z GFS. 

Yea, doesn't look like anything severe with the lack of strong LLJ, just general thunder and lightning. 

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47 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea, doesn't look like anything severe with the lack of strong LLJ, just general thunder and lightning. 

I don't think its bad enough to limit the threat,  just not ideal. 

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Front slower with timing on Saturday. Instability higher, LLJ the same and shear a little less. Still possible but not an overwhelming severe signal. 

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1 hour ago, Mitchg said:

Front slower with timing on Saturday. Instability higher, LLJ the same and shear a little less. Still possible but not an overwhelming severe signal. 

Yea it just looks like general thunderstorms. Maybe a couple could reach severe limits with some hail and some stronger winds. With lack of strong LLJ it's going to be tough to get some good wind from it. 

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