Qtown Snow

2nd Half Of Meteorological Winter Pattern Discussion, Where Feb Rules!

471 posts in this topic

1 minute ago, Qtown Snow said:

gotta get through this 

1-16-2017 9-30-14 AM.jpg

I think to ease my pain, I will begrudgingly golf a couple of days.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Rainshadow said:

I think to ease my pain, I will begrudgingly golf a couple of days.

i need to retire ;):) , i'm getting closer 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The only consistency that jumps out at me on these maps are Alaska & Mexico being warm.

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201702.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/11/2017 at 5:49 PM, tombo82685 said:

What will be interesting to see if we get this pattern flip if it's driven by the mjo going into phase 1 or if it's something else? Because if it's mjo driven I wonder how that will evolve when we get a little more into February when the MJO goes into warm phases. Though, as of now the wave looks pretty weak and the mjo really hasn't been driving the pattern. Considering we just came out of a very cold week while we were in a torch phase. Also, the AAM still wants to side in nina phase as it looks right now if you adjust for gefs bias. So still have to be on the look out for how long that +pna if it does develops sustains itself. 

this still applies to my thoughts that I made a week ago. Not sure how long this pattern would sustain itself. It looks like one of the main culprits is the tropical forcing going into favorable phases for eastern cold. But what happens when that forcing goes warm at some point in february? I think then we would need help from the pv and any disruptive shots to it. Also, not sure how long the pna ridge sustains itself either. The theme of the winter has been any ridging out there has been very brief if any at all. I think the tropical forcing is helping to aid in a pna spike but it looks like we may get a wave train induced -epo hit again. That would argue for any ridging out west to be flattened out possibly. So I think we do see a pna spike at some point in lat ejan early, feb but after that I'm not sure how long it lasts with the tropical forcing waning and the possible emergence of another -epo. If we get a ssw or pv split, then everything the ball game changes. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The gefs are still pretty bullish on a stratospheric warming event that displaces the pv off the pole. I don't see a pv split yet, but the warming is there. It would be nice to see the epv flux going poleward for a real shot at a pv breakup but so far that isn't in the cards just yet

[Zonal mean wind and fluxes in 60°N]

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

this still applies to my thoughts that I made a week ago. Not sure how long this pattern would sustain itself. It looks like one of the main culprits is the tropical forcing going into favorable phases for eastern cold. But what happens when that forcing goes warm at some point in february? I think then we would need help from the pv and any disruptive shots to it. Also, not sure how long the pna ridge sustains itself either. The theme of the winter has been any ridging out there has been very brief if any at all. I think the tropical forcing is helping to aid in a pna spike but it looks like we may get a wave train induced -epo hit again. That would argue for any ridging out west to be flattened out possibly. So I think we do see a pna spike at some point in lat ejan early, feb but after that I'm not sure how long it lasts with the tropical forcing waning and the possible emergence of another -epo. If we get a ssw or pv split, then everything the ball game changes. 

in another outlet read essentially your thoughts over the weekend, if we don't get a full SSW event then by mid FEB the PV consolidates at the pole and I would assume we start looking ahead to next winter

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, colonel_kurtz said:

in another outlet read essentially your thoughts over the weekend, if we don't get a full SSW event then by mid FEB the PV consolidates at the pole and I would assume we start looking ahead to next winter

I mean you can't just base everything off the mjo and pv, and the mjo forecasts aren't that good once outside of 7-10 days.  But if they both trend unfavorably I would think you would lean towards a warmer regime. I don't see a pv split right now, so the pv is remaining consolidated. But there is a big warming signal that pushes the pv off the pole for a -ao, which would help bring colder air down to the mid latitudes. If that warming wanes and the pv goes back over the pole and the mjo turns to more unfavorable phases than at first glance yea. There are also other driving factors like wave breaks and wave 1 or 2 hits that can bring cold down too. Outside of 10 days you can't tell if they materialize. I'm just throwing ideas out, creating some discussion in this rather mundane period. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today's run of the euro has a big warming signal at 10mb by day 9. 30mb looks like it would get hit after day 10

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Today's run of the euro has a big warming signal at 10mb by day 9. 30mb looks like it would get hit after day 10

I guess its Morch or Smarch depending on how this evolves.

What you posted earlier, looks like with the cfs2 is inferring about some relaxation of the +pna/-epo in Feb also.  Again its "out there" in time, so buyer beware.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One way of describing these teleconnections is...better.

4indices.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the PV is going to come through for us, not seeing many red flags for Feb at this point. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The jet extension and retraction that was modeled consistently last week is still on track. Pretty good job of models sniffing it out:

 

IMG_1578.PNG

IMG_1579.PNG

IMG_1580.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

I mean you can't just base everything off the mjo and pv, and the mjo forecasts aren't that good once outside of 7-10 days.  But if they both trend unfavorably I would think you would lean towards a warmer regime. I don't see a pv split right now, so the pv is remaining consolidated. But there is a big warming signal that pushes the pv off the pole for a -ao, which would help bring colder air down to the mid latitudes. If that warming wanes and the pv goes back over the pole and the mjo turns to more unfavorable phases than at first glance yea. There are also other driving factors like wave breaks and wave 1 or 2 hits that can bring cold down too. Outside of 10 days you can't tell if they materialize. I'm just throwing ideas out, creating some discussion in this rather mundane period. 

With the caveat about the MJO beyond 10 days, one can see that its on sched to assist in the colder regime last five days or so of the month, but carrying it forward if it is the dog and regardless of a sv split or not (its effects would not be instantaneous) , warmer temp phases arrive during the first half of Feb.

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Mitchg said:

I think the PV is going to come through for us, not seeing many red flags for Feb at this point. 

I'm not so sure Mitch. The rebuilding of the pattern for winter weather in the east may take some time as a +PNA 

(way out in the future) too far east will create a pattern that may be cold enough, but nothing to turn storm up the coast.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Harbourton said:

I'm not so sure Mitch. The rebuilding of the pattern for winter weather in the east may take some time as a +PNA 

(way out in the future) too far east will create a pattern that may be cold enough, but nothing to turn storm up the coast.

That could happen. All the PV would do is make it colder. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Mitchg said:

That could happen. All the PV would do is make it colder. 

clipper pattern, basically what eps are showing.Trough axis to far east.. that period around day 10/11 looks interesting though. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

With the caveat about the MJO beyond 10 days, one can see that its on sched to assist in the colder regime last five days or so of the month, but carrying it forward if it is the dog and regardless of a sv split or not (its effects would not be instantaneous) , warmer temp phases arrive during the first half of Feb.

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif

 

Looks weaker in the bad phases, EC then goes 7,8,1 etc starting at the 13th. Phase 3 still cold. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12z Euro has snow back into the area by next Friday the 27th....not sayin it's reality but....

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would imagine this gets colder once we get closer. But it's just LOL worthy right now. 

 

so you get an H5 like this, flow from Alaska

gefs_z500a_noram_61.png

850 temps like this

gefs_t850a_noram_61.png

The surface temps that are normal lolololol

gefs_t2ma_1d_noram_61.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

 

You know its bad when  "cooler conditions"  are still above average.  :( 

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.