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tombo82685

CFS, GGEM, JMA, and Euro Weeklies Thread

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Just going to make one thread for all this and put it in here

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33 minutes ago, Qtown Snow said:

I don't have a good cold/snow feeling about this thread :(

lol..well going off what the eps looked like last night. It's a lock the first 3 weeks are warm on the weeklies. 

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Guesses 

Week 3 >+9 Grinch digging the AK trough and the heatmizer pumping the SE ridge in Miami. 

Week 4 +3  Still ugly looking. 

Week 5 0 MJO changes starting to occur, Some response from a small strat punch around 15 days from now. 

Week 6 0 Decent looking. 

Mean snowfall cut in half from Monday's run. 

 

Christmas is my favorite holiday, as you can tell from the numerous Grinch and mizer references. If it too much I can ease up but I think it adds a little excitement to a few depressing weeks of winter weather. 

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mjo effects should take place well before late jan. Should be close to phase 7 next week or around Christmas

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h5

week 1 +ao/+nao/-pna/+epo/ abv normal hgts, se ridge

week 2 neutral ao/+epo/-pna/+nao/ abv normal hgts, se ridge

week 3 -pna/+epo/-ao/neutral nao/ abv normal hgts, weak se ridge

week 4 +epo/+ao/neutral nao/-pna/abv normal hgts, weak  se ridge

week 5 neutral pna/neutral epo/-enao/+ao/ below normal hgts

week 6 -epo/neutral pna/-enao/+ao/ normal hgts

temps based off 850

above weeks 1 through 4, below week 5 and normal or slightly below week 6 

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temps

week 1 0

week 2 +5

week 3 +5

week 4 +3

week 5 0

week 6 +1

still think first week of January we transition to colder

precip

week 1 above

week 2 normal

week 3 normal

week 4 normal

week 5 normal

week 6 above

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23 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Do you want me to put the verification spread sheet in here too?

no, you can keep that separate 

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Guesses, another awful run of the weeklies should occur tonight.  

week 3 >+9

week 4 +6

week 5 +3

week 6 0

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Canadian Weeklies (starting today (12/19), issued on Thursday)

Temps

Week 1....cold

Week 2...warm

Week 3....warm

Week 4...normal

Pcpn

Week 1...wet (too slow with yda's system?)

weeks 2 thru 4...normal  (wet la nina look weeks 2 and 3 northwest of Mt. Holly CWA)

 

 

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CFS2 Monday starting run

Temps

Week 1....0F

Week 2....+5F

Week 3....+3F

Week 4....+3F

Pcpn

Week 1....normal

Week 2....wet

Weeks 3 & 4....dry

Yup -PNA SE Ridge outlooked to persist.

 

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h5

week 1 -pna/+epo/+ao/+nao/ abv normal hgts, se ridge

week 2 -pna/+epo/+ao/+nao/ abv normal hgts, se ridge

week 3 -pna/+epo/+ao/+nao/ abv normal hgts, zonal flow

week 4 -pna/-epo/+ao/+nao/ abv normal hgts, weak se ridge

week 5 neutral pna/-epo/+ao/+nao/ normal hgts

week 6 -epo/+pna/-ao/+nao/ normal hgts

pretty much consistent with thursday's weeklies of a flip mid january

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temps

week 1 -2

week 2 +8

week 3 +5

week 4 +4

week 5 0

week 6 -1

precip

week 1 below

week 2 normal, abv nw

week 3 normal

week 4 normal

week 5 normal

week 6 normal

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Offset CFS2s that start tomorrow (and not on Monday) are all the warmth each week.  Week 2 (first week of January) though looks like it should be cold, similar to what other models have with a big -epo ridge.  After that whether right or wrong (chances are at least one week wrong), the SE Ridge flexes its muscles again.

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25 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Offset CFS2s that start tomorrow (and not on Monday) are all the warmth each week.  Week 2 (first week of January) though looks like it should be cold, similar to what other models have with a big -epo ridge.  After that whether right or wrong (chances are at least one week wrong), the SE Ridge flexes its muscles again.

pretty much there on ens right now after the new years. Whether that pans out or not we shall see. 

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Be interesting to see if this holds but pretty interesting turn around on cfs for jan after it's constant warm look

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201701.gif

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h5

week 1 -epo/neutral ao/+ao/-pna/ abv normal hgts

week 2 ----epo/-ao/+nao/-pna/ abv normal hgts, se ridge

week 3 -epo/-ao/+nao/-pna/ abv normal hgts/ weak se ridge

week 4 +epo/+nao/+ao/neutral pna/ abv normal hgts

week 5 -epo/+nao/neutral pna/+ao/ abv normal hgts

week 6  -epo/+nao/neutral pna/neutral ao/ abv normal hgts

Looking at 850s, looks like abv normal temps every week. 

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Tonight's weeklies basically cancel winter till day 43.  We make a little progress days 8-13 only to have reverse to where it be early next week for most of the next several weeks. 

 

Source: Google, pintrest, american profile. 

you-re-a-mean-one-mr-grinch.jpg

fc1d6d9f78681f661e0ccb96674231d3.jpg

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12 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

 

Tonight's weeklies basically cancel winter till day 43.  We make a little progress days 8-13 only to have reverse to where it be early next week for most of the next several weeks. 

 

Source: Google, pintrest, american profile. 

you-re-a-mean-one-mr-grinch.jpg

fc1d6d9f78681f661e0ccb96674231d3.jpg

Ugh. Getting ugly fast if this is true. Lack of any pna or blocking it's going to be hard to cash in around here 

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h5 temps

week 1 +3

week 2 +2

week 3 +2

week 4 +1

week 5 +3

week 6 +1

precip

week 1 normal

week 2 above 

week 3 normal

week 4 normal

week 5 normal

week 6 normal

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Canadian Weeklies...

Pcpn

Week 1....Dry

Week 2....Wet

Week 3....Normal

Week 4....Wet

Temps

Week 1...Normal

Week 2...Above

Week 3...Normal

Week 4...Normal

No 500mb so guessing less of a SE ridge weeks 3 & 4.

 

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First off a +1 and +2 in January, the coldest time of the year is no where near a winter cancel at all. The weeklies showed a gradient like pattern. It's a high risk/reward pattern. From week 3 on there really ins't a strong se ridge look, it's mainly off shore. I don't know how you can really take these seriously even if what they show does pan out. Just 4 days ago, it had week 2 as a +8 now it's down to a +3 3 days later. It totally missed the -epo look from 3 days ago. ALso, assuming it uses the euro's mjo forecast, that is completely wrong which could give a wrong look. It's la nina and we have a textbook la nina look meaning cold west some sort of ridging in the southeast. How strong both are will depend on how cold or warm it will be here. 

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