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chescopawxman

WXSIM Weather Simulator Forecasts

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Wxsim (www.wxsim.com) is a point specific personal forecasting tool that uses a mix of the GFS and NAM models along with a built in advection routine starting with home weather station readings to produce a local - in my backyard forecast

 

My Wxsim program forecast run (for NW Chester County PA) at 2pm on January 16th, 2016

-  snow arriving on Friday the 22nd by 7pm with a temp of 34.6

- S+ at 10pm temp 31.1

- S+ at 7am Saturday 23rd with 6.0" of snow so far

- S+ at 1pm Saturday with 12.0" of snow

Storm ends by 3pm with a storm total of 13.0"

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With the 18z GFS/NAM (sad this program cannot include the king of models - the EURO) so take this with the proverbial grain of salt this far out but....

Snow still arrives by 7pm on Friday the 22nd

3" of snow by midnight and then a change to IP/ZR with another 0.80"

then back to snow by early AM and another 11" of snow

so a combined 11" to 13" of snow to ice back to snow before ending.

Over 2.10" of liquid equivalent

 

This will clearly change significantly over the next few days but just shows the variability of the fab US models on a day to day basis - until the EURO shows something - I will never buy what the US models portray

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Latest Wxsim for NW Chesco for today gets 0.3" of snow into Chesco

regarding the Friday potential event it now has snow arriving earlier on Friday AM

10am = S+ Temp 24.4

4pm = S+ 27.0 with 10" of snow so far

8pm = Mod snow with 12" of snow

Tapering off in the wee hours of Sat AM with 13" total snow accumulation

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Does Wxsim have an API that would allow you to feed it euro or other global model data? The output might be more compelling if you could add more distinct data sets from the global models. Even more compelling if you could pick and choose what suites you're feeding it...Breaking it down elementally, it seems to be that if the data were in a format that Wxsim could handle, it could be possible, but I have no insight (and haven't looked) to see if it's extensible at all.

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Hi Dryslot

Unfortunately it does not have the EURO I have asked the developer if it's possible and there is some reason it is not. Plus he customizes for clients to forecast to one specific site (their backyard or business) with upwind advection routines etc. that cannot be changed. It does have a learning function built in to take the actual weather station data and make adjustments to forecasts going forward.

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18z Wxsim forecast with NAM/GFS still paints about 1 foot of snow for NW Chesco - a little later start this run with moderate snow by 4pm Friday and all over by 1pm Saturday with about 12" of total snow

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6z data of course ramps this up to HECS levels here is the run down for NW Chester County PA

Snow by mid afternoon on Friday

4pm = S+ temp 27.3

10pm - S+ temp 24.2 snow so far 10.5"

1am - S+ temp 24.6 snow = 16.5"

4am - S+ temp 25.0 snow = 20.0"

7am - S+ temp 25.0 snow = 24.0"

11am - S  temp 25.7 snow = 28.0"

Light snow most of the rest of the PM ending by evening total snow accumulation 29.0"

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12z data Wxsim now up to over 31" of snow for NW Chesco....that should be the high mark - expect it will start trending down toward a more realistic number with next couple runs

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With 6z runs the Wxsim has snow starting by 1pm on Friday with S+ by 4pm - temps in the mid-20's for the duration of the storm.

Total snow by 8am Saturday at 20" total by the time it winds down by 8pm is 28.2" for NW Chesco (10:1 ratio)

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Wxsim with 12z models now down to a scant 20" of snow for NW Chesco - arrival time now at 4pm Friday with it tapering off late Saturday night

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12z Wxsim for NW Chester County

Snow arriving by 10pm Friday temp 29.8

S+ at 4am with 4" snow so far

S+ 10am = 12.5

Mod snow 4pm = 21.7"

1am Mod snow = 22.8"

Ending by 2am total snow 23.1"

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18z data brings the snow total down to a little 16" event in NW Chesco (tongue firmly in cheek)....starts by 10pm and over by early Sunday AM....experience shows it will likely end earlier than that....

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12z data for East Nantmeal Twp in NW Chester County

Snow arriving Friday evening 9pm

7am S+ 4" so far

shows some IP mixing in during the mid morning

1pm S+ 12"

5pm S+ 21"

10pm S 25"

2am ending - total accumulation 27"

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18z data for NW Chester County PA - not surprisingly has yielded the greatest snow prediction I have ever had with the program going back 7 years

Here is the rundown

Snow starts at 9pm

7am Saturday S+ 7.5"

1pm S+ = 17"

4pm S+ = 26"

7pm S+ - 31.4"

12mid - S+ 33.6"

ending by 1am storm total 34.6"

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Awesome...

Lol!!!

Here's hopin'‼️

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with the NAM in there I am sure it will come back down quite a bit toward reality by tomorrow...

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Wxsim with 6z data for NW Chesco

Snow flurries by 7pm

Moderate snow by 10pm temp 28.7

S+ by 1am (2.5" so far)

7am - S+ (9.7")

1pm - S+ (17.0")

5pm S+ (21.3")

10pm S (23.1")

Ending by 2am total snow 23.8"

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I wonder if that Wxsim will go back up over 30" for you with the 12Z data...

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Greg - right you are with the 12z data it now has it starting around 5pm with moderate snow by 7pm and continuing till 1am Sunday morning with 34.4" of snow with 3.16" QPF

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Wxsim with 12z data has snow arriving on Monday morning around noon lasting till about 11pm on Tuesday with about 6" of snow falling during that time

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6z data for NW Chester County has snow arriving Monday PM continuing till about 5am on Wed morning with 4.5" of snow

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With 12z model runs back up to near 8" of snow with snow arriving Monday PM with 4" on the ground by 7am Tuesday and 7" by 7pm Tuesday evening. Wxsim also shows temps struggling to reach the mid 20's Thursday and Friday and temps remaining mainly in the teens next weekend.

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18z models (GFS/NAM) stays pretty consistent with 7.3" of snow for NW Chesco by 2am on Wed morning

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06z models look a little too aggressive - still showing 7.2" of snow all light to moderate starting tomorrow evening lasting thru Wed till about midnight. Highest temp is 32.1 during the snow

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Well of course with 18z data the snow has increased to about 9" of snow with 0.99 liquid - Wxsim shows temps staying in the 20's in NW Chesco all day on Tuesday and even some periods of Heavy Snow.

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