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Rainshadow

August 12th and 13th, Back To Lost Weekends?

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After having two really delightful Sundays and getting better as they went along Saturdays, this upcoming weekend is not looking well.  With an approaching warm front and then a predicted positive tilt trof, the models are struggling to bring the cold front through.  Can't say either day looks dry at this point or point to a better day, maybe Sunday? Wet begets wet.

This map is thru 8 am Sunday only (and some should fall on Friday).  There is the early following week system incorporated into wpc's day 6/7.

95ep48iwbg_fill.gif.fbf76061b2b70ce71b92fdf4c266a0b3.gif

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Would have preferred a nicer weekend with some weather dependent activities, but such is life.

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22 hours ago, rramblings said:

Would have preferred a nicer weekend with some weather dependent activities, but such is life.

The trend is definitely looking up the last two model runs.  While there still looks like there should be some showers/thunderstorms around, its more hit/miss and not a whole day soaker as Monday was.

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23 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

After having two really delightful Sundays and getting better as they went along Saturdays, this upcoming weekend is not looking well.  With an approaching warm front and then a predicted positive tilt trof, the models are struggling to bring the cold front through.  Can't say either day looks dry at this point or point to a better day, maybe Sunday? Wet begets wet.

This map is thru 8 am Sunday only (and some should fall on Friday).  There is the early following week system incorporated into wpc's day 6/7.

95ep48iwbg_fill.gif.fbf76061b2b70ce71b92fdf4c266a0b3.gif

Latest map that includes the entire weekend (an additional 24 weekend hours from the map above):

p120i.gif.a21b2c13a0d3681c48cdc502122f3d6f.gif

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As of now Saturday looking like the more unsettled day with coverage than sunday

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25 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

As of now Saturday looking like the more unsettled day with coverage than sunday

We are headed to Hershey Sunday evening to see Guns and Roses.  I haven't anticipated a concert like this in a long time, so that's a welcome sight.

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45 minutes ago, mshaffer526 said:

We are headed to Hershey Sunday evening to see Guns and Roses.  I haven't anticipated a concert like this in a long time, so that's a welcome sight.

Then again, nothing lasts forever, not even a cold August rain. ;)

 

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1 hour ago, mshaffer526 said:

We are headed to Hershey Sunday evening to see Guns and Roses.  I haven't anticipated a concert like this in a long time, so that's a welcome sight.

:ok:

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Fwiw, the eps are def a bit more bullish on the weekend rain chances than euro

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3 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

The trend is definitely looking up the last two model runs.  While there still looks like there should be some showers/thunderstorms around, its more hit/miss and not a whole day soaker as Monday was.

Thanks Tony, so there is hope. But with my luck, the showers/thunderstorms will be around at the wrong time.  B) Tyler

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At the very least, it looks like the associated cloud cover will rain on the Perseids parade late friday night.

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Euro isn't bad. Steadiest rain over night Friday. Somenisolated stuff Saturday. Sunday looks pretty good outside shore locaions possibly 

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1 hour ago, snowlurker said:

At the very least, it looks like the associated cloud cover will rain on the Perseids parade late friday night.

That's too bad...it seems like there is cloud cover every year for the Perseids.

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5 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Euro isn't bad. Steadiest rain over night Friday. Somenisolated stuff Saturday. Sunday looks pretty good outside shore locaions possibly 

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017080912_69_477_228.png

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Still looking like overnight Friday into Saturday morning is most widespread rain. It could linger into first half of Saturday ESP south and east 

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Favored location (other than German global model) for heavier precip thru weekend is south and east (again). 

 

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Capture.JPGw.JPG

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ukmet

PA_000-072_0000.gif

jma

PR_000-084_0000.gif

6z german 

PR_000-072_0000.gif

6z jma

PR_000-072_0000.gif

6z ggem

PR_000-072_0000.gif

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eps generally .5-.7 over the whole area

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Gotta love the nam. It's gone from floods at 0z for phl to sprinkles at 12z

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Looks like the models are doing a 180 on the weekend ( Sunday) and beyond.

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13 hours ago, Harbourton said:

Looks like the models are doing a 180 on the weekend ( Sunday) and beyond.

Sunday has been looking like the better weekend day since the thread started, although now looks completely dry.

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Same general consensus from 12z runs so far. Scattered storms and showers. 2 heavier periods would be tonight and early tomorrow morning. Then afternoon with any daytime heating

qpf_acc.us_ne.png

 

GFSMA_prec_precacc_057.png

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5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Same general consensus from 12z runs so far. Scattered storms and showers. 2 heavier periods would be tonight and early tomorrow morning. Then afternoon with any daytime heating

qpf_acc.us_ne.png

 

GFSMA_prec_precacc_057.png

Flip a coin and see which one verifies? Leaning towards the lower end.

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1 hour ago, cbelke said:

Flip a coin and see which one verifies? Leaning towards the lower end.

Given where both the embedded vortmaxes travel, one would west of us for tonight's rain and then south of the city with 2nd one

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