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Rainshadow

Winter 2017-18 Outlook Discussion, The Pool Is Cooler

51 posts in this topic

This is the thread Tom dreads getting started because it must mean the days are getting shorter.

A research paper Jack (everytime I drive thru Hammonton, I still think about you and miss you :(  ) showed me years ago about the relationship between the Newfoundland ssta pool in May-Jul and repeating itself as a NAO indicator for the upcoming winter.  In the days ahead I will go back and corroborate this, but last year's positive pool correlated with the positive nao for the winter making it 15 of 19 times correct picking the correct direction of the nao since the winter of 1997-98. 

Well ladies and gents, don't have the psd re-analysis data in just yet, but at first look. it looks like the pool is negative this predicative season (or at the absolute worst neutral).  Even looking at the bigger picture, it looks like the whole north atlantic ssta pattern retrograded farther to the west.  Granted the Pacific has a say too in it, but overall it looks like to me that the Atlantic should be less hostile this winter and maybe be as bold to say more hospitable overall.

I tried to get the pool spot about the same, south of Newfoundland. 

Last year:

4YLAXPLJT9.png.e0bb6da4b82253505f259ec68648ab16.png

This year May/June

OTBFwNmAjw.png.4bd8e91c53952437d34fe8c58059d92c.png

This season (some slippage including July):

sst_anom.seasonal.gif.b8c666e1d43b33539a7be39919247356.gif

Last Season:

C_792DYg65.png.f08b642e8185a05dc9a9124d1cde7867.png

This May & June:

OTBFwNmAjw.png.4bd8e91c53952437d34fe8c58059d92c.png

 

Winter 2016-17 500 mb pattern anomaly (move everything west for this winter?):

jLh5uiQqT2.png.82687c7604b2d542bada84e4075d2685.png

 

 

nu3tgpuRca.png

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I just got a warm fuzzy feeling going through my viens when I saw snowman gigi start this thread

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CANSIPS Monthlies: This output is basically just for laughs. 

Overall Neutral to weak west based nino with a weak + PDO. Not a bad run overall but the mizer got his word in January. 

Sept: Ridge over New England, + AO, slight troughing in the west. Warm. 

Oct: - NAO but troughing in Western Canada with Pac flow, displaced SE ridge. Above normal heights, warm. 

Nov: What a shame this isn't January output instead. -- NAO, ++ PNA, -- EPO, Below normal heights, normal temps. This set-up in reality would be way below normal. 

Dec: - AO, Southern ridge with GOA trough in a good spot, not bad with normal temps. 

Jan: GOA trough slamming into Canada with way above normal heights for the CONUS with PAC flow. Winter cancel. 

Feb: - EPO, + PNA with below normal heights. blocking displaced east though. Below normal temps. 

Mar: More zonal flow with a - NAO. Warmer. 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

 

West based nino at work. Recent trends have been for cooling though in all nino zones perhaps as much toward leaning weak nina. Hopefully this reverses again. 

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8 hours ago, Mitchg said:

West based nino at work. Recent trends have been for cooling though in all nino zones perhaps as much toward leaning weak nina. Hopefully this reverses again. 

Obv weak Nino is preferred but weak Niña is fine. As long as we don't go mod/ strong Niña that's fine in my book. No overwhelming dominance in enso forcing and you let other teleconnectons dictate the pattern 

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14 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Obv weak Nino is preferred but weak Niña is fine. As long as we don't go mod/ strong Niña that's fine in my book. No overwhelming dominance in enso forcing and you let other teleconnectons dictate the pattern 

Basically the door will be left open.  Just have to see how the pattern evolves in October & November.

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3 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Obv weak Nino is preferred but weak Niña is fine. As long as we don't go mod/ strong Niña that's fine in my book. No overwhelming dominance in enso forcing and you let other teleconnectons dictate the pattern 

You have enso neutral negative as well aka 13-14. 

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9 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

You have enso neutral negative as well aka 13-14. 

We hug that year

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48 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

We hug that year

Ann-Hood.jpg.ec500e79b89ac8d7c23d9c871959089a.jpg

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I do like the -qbo/ low solar combo. As long as the -qbo isn't on roids heading into winter it could help with blocky patterns

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6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I do like the -qbo/ low solar combo. As long as the -qbo isn't on roids heading into winter it could help with blocky patterns

Preferred reference height 30mb?

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6 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Preferred reference height 30mb?

Yea, using 30mb

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What do we have now in terms of the Pacific, is it a -pdo?

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

What do we have now in terms of the Pacific, is it a -pdo?

Its positive as Mitch said, the least positive since summer of 2013.  Those less than +1 values dont fall into the category of too positive to become negative (or too big to fail).  Gulf of Alaska doesnt look great now, but what really matters there is November.

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20 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Be nice to hold that +pdo, then lock in weak el nino, with weak -qbo, and low solar.

 Image result for faint gif

Still time for nina and - PDO to build the southeast ridge into New England. 

your friend,  

:heatmiser:

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1 minute ago, Mitchg said:

Still time for nina and - PDO to build the southeast ridge into New England. 

your friend,  

:heatmiser:

Now there is no need to use that kind of foul language around here...

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Just now, TTNwatcher said:

Now there is no need to use that kind of foul language around here...

I think I lot of things are in up in the air at this point. Right now most signs are encouraging but still early without strong signals.

 

Tombo walked right into that comment ;)

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4 hours ago, Mitchg said:

I think I lot of things are in up in the air at this point. Right now most signs are encouraging but still early without strong signals.

 

Tombo walked right into that comment ;)

Image result for mr bean startled gif

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Those are some nice analogs. Here's the snow and temp for those winters at Philly.

60-61

Snow - 49.1"

Temp - 28.68

62-63

Snow - 20.5"

Temp - 28.34

81-82

Snow - 25.4"

Temp - 31.12

00-01

Snow - 26.1"

Temp - 33.59

Mean of the four analogs

Snow - 30.27"

Temp - 30.43

Source: jcweather.com

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Some good stuff from Ben, looking for a leading driver this winter. 

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