Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
Rainshadow

July 22nd-23rd A Weekend of Slight Risks, Some Reprieve From The Heat(?) & Rainfree Weekend Streak In Trouble.

55 posts in this topic

This week is almost setting up like last week with Thursday the barn burner day and then the front just getting far enough south for a dry, somewhat cooler weekend.

If I'd have to venture a guess on Saturday being the more comfortable of the two weekend days.

Capture.thumb.JPG.13456791f6c62c31f07e87541eb30ba3.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GFS makes this short lived with Sunday back in the 90s (as its faster :o).  All the models do and from the ensembles one can see some of the fronts dont get just south.

Capture.thumb.JPG.c67032b296f9e08aa5197f78a14c46f1.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EPS are rather warm for both sat and sunday with temps in the upper 80s to low 90s. It's going to come down to again where that front gets to. That will determine where the heat will be and if we get into a nw flow disturbances. The euro had one for saturday night ridign the thermal bndry. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sunday looking hot on euro this run. Could take a run at 100 with +23 850s

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Saturday temps on euro. Gradient central ! 

 

Fully expect this to creep north north as the week goes on. 

IMG_4968.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Either we get the inferno or heat as the boundary stays north of us. Or it is around us or just south and we possibly get into a mcs type situation from what I see right now. 

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still looking like either we get mcs love and don't bake on Sunday with temps in the 80s. Or that stays north of us and we go 95-100

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Still looking like either we get mcs love and don't bake on Sunday with temps in the 80s. Or that stays north of us and we go 95-100

Yup, that's the ggem & euro solution for the former with the gfs & ukmet solution in the latter. 

Capture.thumb.JPG.9b791e7b07fc41c66ec23ffe0092578d.JPG

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

By far the ugliest dew point mex mos forecast of the summer.  I guess they dont believe in any dew point relief on Saturday.

Capture.JPG.659f33666ff6fe5bf5a627f6ac680815.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still up in the air in terms of this weekend. Euro is pretty active Saturday and Sunday in terms of storms. On Sunday better shot is north of city. City south mid to upper 90s on Sunday. For Saturday, low 90s in city south and 80s to the north. Unsettled in the afternoon. Could definitely be some severe weather this weekend depending on track of s/w's

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Still up in the air in terms of this weekend. Euro is pretty active Saturday and Sunday in terms of storms. On Sunday better shot is north of city. City south mid to upper 90s on Sunday. For Saturday, low 90s in city south and 80s to the north. Unsettled in the afternoon. Could definitely be some severe weather this weekend depending on track of s/w's

Looks like the only way we "cool" off is with any mcs(s).  Otherwise, neither day looks pretty.  Might be some dew point relief on Saturday, but this is down from outright relief 36 hours ago.

Capture.thumb.JPG.248191f85368c266eb4a7e158f9715da.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Eps went in the right direction in both precip and temp for Sunday. Saturday still looking like low to to mid 90s. Sunday 2m temp dropped to the upper 80s with many members showing widespread storms. Between Saturday and Sunday from phl north the mean is pushing .75-1" qpf. Hopefully we can continue this trend. Highest is north of the city. Still a decent qpf mean between the 2 days 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

eps and euro continued to trend favorably over night. overnight peak temp at phl for the weekend was 86 with 1-2" of rain/storms over the region saturday afternoon and especially Sunday. EPS strongly in support of this too with their 2m temp continuing to drop for the weekend with rain/storm chances

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

eps and euro continued to trend favorably over night. overnight peak temp at phl for the weekend was 86 with 1-2" of rain/storms over the region saturday afternoon and especially Sunday. EPS strongly in support of this too with their 2m temp continuing to drop for the weekend with rain/storm chances

Probably too favorable on temps given where (even their) 850s are and any sunshine.  We'd welcome the rain, we missed out on the heavier rain the last two weeks.  Its now been over two months since we have entered a CoCoRaHs 24 hour precip amount of over an inch.

Capture.thumb.JPG.d986af63382c32e86017ce6d70b355c4.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Highs should hit 100 in Kentucky on Friday, what a bummer I'm going to miss it. ;)

2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Severe and flash flood prospects may ramp up again as well. This front looks to have some decent shear along it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Probably too favorable on temps given where (even their) 850s are and any sunshine.  We'd welcome the rain, we missed out on the heavier rain the last two weeks.  Its now been over two months since we have entered a CoCoRaHs 24 hour precip amount of over an inch.

Capture.thumb.JPG.d986af63382c32e86017ce6d70b355c4.JPG

Here's the 30 day rain estimate. Berks Co. is Monmouth Co. of the summer it seems. 

image.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm going camping in the Pocs (Fri-Sun) with a large group of people and wanted to advise everyone on the expected weather. Does anyone want to hazard a guess on the relative risk of severe and heavy rain for the Pocs during this timeframe or is it simply too early to tell? 

I don't think it'll make any difference in what I pack (cheap Walmart tent), but others might want to be more prepared.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

I'm going camping in the Pocs (Fri-Sun) with a large group of people and wanted to advise everyone on the expected weather. Does anyone want to hazard a guess on the relative risk of severe and heavy rain for the Pocs during this timeframe or is it simply too early to tell? 

I don't think it'll make any difference in what I pack (cheap Walmart tent), but others might want to be more prepared.

A little early to tell exact location of front. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

I'm going camping in the Pocs (Fri-Sun) with a large group of people and wanted to advise everyone on the expected weather. Does anyone want to hazard a guess on the relative risk of severe and heavy rain for the Pocs during this timeframe or is it simply too early to tell? 

I don't think it'll make any difference in what I pack (cheap Walmart tent), but others might want to be more prepared.

Higher than the climo norm chances for the Julian day and we are in the midst of the peak severe weather season (IMO June & July)  for our area.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro continues to back off the big heat idea. Saturday and Sunday both around 90 with lots of storms around. Definitely have to watch out for some sort of mcs activity as it's riding the periphery of the ridge right into our area. Severe weather and flash flooding too could be an issue 

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Euro continues to back off the big heat idea. Saturday and Sunday both around 90 with lots of storms around. Definitely have to watch out for some sort of mcs activity as it's riding the periphery of the ridge right into our area. Severe weather and flash flooding too could be an issue 

Eps continue to back this up with raw 2m temps around 88. Given they have been running a little to cool 90-91 doable for both days. They are also still bullish on storm chances later Saturday and ESP Sunday into Monday 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Overnight euro trending warmer for Saturday as the low pressure that's bringing the unsettled weather is slower. So euro has low to mid 90s. Sunday still looking unsettled with low 90s in the city and mid to upper 80s else where. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.