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Rainshadow

The GFS Forecasting 100 Degree Max Temps in PHL Thread, 2017 Version

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Just like the swallows returning to Capistrano, it took longer (unless I apologize for missing one), but we have the first inferred (2m temp max of 97-99F) predicted 100 degree day in PHL by the GFS for next Thursday (July 13th).

I have attached last year's result as to what it meant when the GFS forecasted a 2m max temp of 100F or higher (39 times, no hits) and the 115 inferred forecasts of 100 degrees or higher.  It had better results within 7 days of having max temps verifying in the 90s. 

There were obviously multiple forecasts of hot hot max temps for the same calendar day, so there werent 115 days of implied 100 plus forecast, but dont plant any seeds into the GFS's head.

Interesting on how between days 7 to 10 last season the GFS seemed to have "lost" the 100 degree forecasts only to find them (incorrectly) again within 7 days.

This warm season is complicated by the new GFS coming on board, so not one model and not sure if the 3-5F 2m cold bias will continue. Its had some even hotter runs already.

Enjoy, I know this is everyone's favorite thread.

Capture.thumb.JPG.edf08025d677582fb0f38253d68480dc.JPG

 

BTW the Euro predicted a max temp of 100 degrees or higher at PHL three times last summer.

 

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Euro is roughly 88-91*, 100's aren't even close to region with 18* 850's. 

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Euro goes in the summer version of the deep freeze afterwards. 

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57 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Euro is roughly 88-91*, 100's aren't even close to region with 18* 850's. 

No love for the 22C 850 on the OP GFS? :o

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gfs going 95 2m raw for thurs, euro and eps 86...battle is on

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welp, euro jumped onto gfs mid 90s for thursday last night. EPS aren't there yet but got noticeably warmer

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

welp, euro jumped onto gfs mid 90s for thursday last night. EPS aren't there yet but got noticeably warmer

Well last summer when the GFS forecast a (wrong) bias corrected 100 degree day, within 7 days (and this was), it was nearly perfect at having max temps in the 90s regardless.  This week is getting uglier by the model run.

 

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Looking forward to 95-100 thurs if the gfs is correct with dews close to 70 HI 100-105 MMMMmMmmmmm

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4 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Looking forward to 95-100 thurs if the gfs is correct with dews close to 70 HI 100-105 MMMMmMmmmmm

:cagna2: Booo. But Thursday looking like the hottest of the bunch. 

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Euro would be good for 95-97 for thurs

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It's looking like the worst of the heat clears out by the weekend?  I can deal with the heat when I'm sitting at work all day.

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Just now, mshaffer526 said:

It's looking like the worst of the heat clears out by the weekend?  I can deal with the heat when I'm sitting at work all day.

Yea, temps still warm but no mid 90s or anything 

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ggem is what we want. Front is closer to us so we get more thunderstorms and rains around so temps don't get that high. Euro was good for mid to upper 90s again last night. 

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Already a big heat signature on eps for late next week into weekend of 21st

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Procedural/Inferred 100 degree max temps on GFS for PHL

7/7/12z on 7/13

7/10/00z on 7/20 & 7/21

 

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This is not the first GFS run to do this, but first where I saw it labeled (594 thickness).  The state is changing its name to South Bakedkota

d.thumb.png.0dd7a93dc70af212c513daefa1dbfdd6.png

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Already a big heat signature on eps for late next week into weekend of 21st

In the world we live in the heat signatures don't fail, the cool (hello this Thursday) signatures go down in flames.

 

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28 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

In the world we live in the heat signatures don't fail, the cool (hello this Thursday) signatures go down in flames.

 

Atleast it's not gone, only got pushed back a day 

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5 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Atleast it's not gone, only got pushed back a day 

Glad to see no pattern impact on Williamsburg's high temps:

Capture.thumb.JPG.2e48d76b75a7410947c0e0c6af1b5ab1.JPG

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20 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Glad to see no pattern impact on Williamsburg's high temps:Capture.thumb.JPG.2e48d76b75a7410947c0e0c6af1b5ab1.JPG

You can have that. I'll take bgm's low 70s

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6 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Atleast it's not gone, only got pushed back a day 

Pretty bad 00z/7th run by the EPS with only one 90 degree day high on Tuesday, tomorrow. The OP did course correct first, but it took longer for the EPS to find it. Looks like 97 or 98 is slated for the Philly high on Thursday. 

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40 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Pretty bad 00z/7th run by the EPS with only one 90 degree day high on Tuesday, tomorrow. The OP did course correct first, but it took longer for the EPS to find it. Looks like 97 or 98 is slated for the Philly high on Thursday. 

Yea the eps are usually bias to cool like the gfs but not as much. If it's going to get hot, let's go big or not have it. 100 or yawn

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

eps and euro last night looking good for 97-100 for thurs and now they lost the Friday cool shot, that gets pushed to Saturday. Friday looking like 90s now too.

I keep getting 98 or 99 bias correcting GFS 2m temps for Thu the 11th.  Friday Euro looks slow vs other models with north door front.  EPS huge disappointment this week, now goes along with the leader for Friday (regardless whether right or wrong, pretty much been lemming like GEFS members).  Inferred 100 for GFS the following late week.

Good to see GFS has not lost my Williamsburg 104 for next week:

Capture.thumb.JPG.44ed98172d71358f04904219ce751e45.JPG

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Per Tony's map, wish I could move my Adirondack trip up a couple of weeks.

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On 7/10/2017 at 6:47 AM, Rainshadow said:

Procedural/Inferred 100 degree max temps on GFS for PHL

7/7/12z on 7/13

7/10/00z on 7/20 & 7/21

7/11/00z on 7/21

 

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