Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
Rainshadow

Monday June 19th Severe Weather/Flash Flood Threat - Enhanced Severe Risk/I95 Flash Flood Watch

48 posts in this topic

6z gfs really ramped up llj. Def would support stronger wind damage as main threat. Curious to see what 12z does

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know how tombo loves LLJs ... so here's a pretty nice one.

C39F409A-D86E-4A46-9CD5-3B4D399570C7-5606-00000831923CE338.png

 

^ Above sounding for MBY

 

And a sounding for the strongest LLJ I could find, west Burlington County

AE2989BE-40FB-48D9-94EF-C0986D6ED9FE-5606-0000083A7D2AF77F.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wonder if the nam and gfs are over saturating the profile before the line comes in. Seems like they're to generous with precip before 18z. That could help with some drier air aloft too with bringing higher winds down 

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I wonder if the nam and gfs are over saturating the profile before the line comes in. Seems like they're to generous with precip before 18z. That could help with some drier air aloft too with bringing higher winds down 

I'm still a novice on my best day with forecasts, but I'll throw myself under the bus.

Still inconsistencies with the models. If the models are right (GFS,NAM) it looks like we get rain on/off throughout the day tomorrow. I would think we lose some of the instability as the front gets closer as well as losing the day time heating. 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, cbelke said:

I'm still a novice on my best day with forecasts, but I'll throw myself under the bus.

Still inconsistencies with the models. If the models are right (GFS,NAM) it looks like we get rain on/off throughout the day tomorrow. I would think we lose some of the instability as the front gets closer as well as losing the day time heating. 

 

 

That's what I'm saying, I don't think that rain they are showing is going to be that widespread which is reducing instability values. I think it will be drier 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

That's what I'm saying, I don't think that rain they are showing is going to be that widespread which is reducing instability values. I think it will be drier 

You should be scared that I understood  this is much as I did.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Highest chances for severe based on SREF guidance is within the enhanced risk area, or vice-versa.

SREF_03HR_SVR_PROBS__f042.thumb.gif.04f26f9858fcb8d7b316261f8e65f00e.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Highest chances for severe based on SREF guidance is within the enhanced risk area, or vice-versa.

SREF_03HR_SVR_PROBS__f042.thumb.gif.04f26f9858fcb8d7b316261f8e65f00e.gif

Makes sense with that placement. Further east the timing may hurt a little along with marine influence 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just not feeling the widespread severe threat tomorrow overall. Mediocre modeled CAPE, little shear, little dry air aloft and a weak LLJ. Still we should get some strong wind gusts but I would keep expectations low.  FF on the other hand looks very likely with almost ideal conditions. 

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

Just not feeling the widespread severe threat tomorrow overall. Mediocre modeled CAPE, little shear, little dry air aloft and a weak LLJ. Still we should get some strong wind gusts but I would keep expectations low.  FF on the other hand looks very likely with almost ideal conditions. 

I could see a lot of instances where velocity scans are showing high winds aloft but due to the lack of dry air it never makes it to the surface. I'm just wondering if models are to generous with morning precip which is over saturating column 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I could see a lot of instances where velocity scans are showing high winds aloft but due to the lack of dry air it never makes it to the surface. I'm just wondering if models are to generous with morning precip which is over saturating column 

Trying to trace back the short wave trigger, there is convection in the quad state boundary KS/MO/OK/AR.  So there is a there there now.  Whether we are capped enough come mid day tomorrow or the short wave weakens will have a bearing on that outcome.  Its hard to say with these convecting models, someone sneezes and thunder occurs on some of these runs. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The arw which maybe I have too much love for, does get convection cranking relatively early, line arrives at PHL at about 4 pm, which is just about prime severe time, they dont have any muddying the waters convection prior.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

IMG_0272.PNG

Seems we are in the "money lane".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very uni-directional above 900mb. Warm at 500mb too, if it wasnt for the timing (which looks perfect) this might have been a meh in our area. Cant beat the timing though.

Capture.thumb.JPG.50df6f48684bce1dd68f4a4e745182a1.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Effective shear of 20-30kts I think is the reason these calibrated severe pops are not eye popping.

SREF_03HR_SVR_PROBS__f039.thumb.gif.30ad08c216f2ecbbca1ec74282cf9d49.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Very uni-directional above 900mb. Warm at 500mb too, if it wasnt for the timing (which looks perfect) this might have been a meh in our area. Cant beat the timing though.

Capture.thumb.JPG.50df6f48684bce1dd68f4a4e745182a1.JPG

Gfs runs from thurs or Friday had a much better llj and since then really slacked off on it. The best thing going for this is the instability. There is some shear aloft to help but I don't like how saturated the column is aloft. The models could be to robust with this and generating prefrontal precip. I like seeing a nice dry air wedge aloft for bringing down downbursts. Without an eml could have a lot of strong winds aloft but don't get mixed down as readily with the saturated look 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One thing that has not changed is the heavy rain threat. Pwats at 2"+ will have tropical downpours and cause some flash flooding and pounding in poor drainage areas 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gfs did up the llj up a little from meh, to eeeee

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.