Rainshadow

Meteorological Summer Discussion; Striving For Less Than Forty 90 Degree Days

194 posts in this topic

On 6/20/2017 at 9:50 AM, tombo82685 said:

heck of a cool shot next week

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_9.png

I approve of this post. :happy-smiley01:

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On 6/15/2017 at 9:35 AM, tombo82685 said:

After the cool down in the 20th-28th timeframe think we return to more heat somewhere in the last couple days of June or start of july. Mjo going into phase 1-3 are warm for us. Could be an active pattern to depending on where the rough sets up to our nw and where the ridge to the south/sw sets up. Could be a ring of fire type setup if things align right. Do think maybe another cool down in middle of july. 

Yea this is going to turn out wrong. The active pattern may be right as there is fight between ridging to the south and trough to the north. But I just don't see any really sustained heat right now through july 6th. That definitely all can change though very quickly as we are talking a big lead time here. Things looks seasonal to below normal. I was basing the warmth on the MJO wave firing up in phase 1->3 which it looks to do, but the wave is very weak.

2017.png

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Sunday-Wednesday of next week is pretty much as good as it gets during the summer. 

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13 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea this is going to turn out wrong. The active pattern may be right as there is fight between ridging to the south and trough to the north. But I just don't see any really sustained heat right now through july 6th. That definitely all can change though very quickly as we are talking a big lead time here. Things looks seasonal to below normal. I was basing the warmth on the MJO wave firing up in phase 1->3 which it looks to do, but the wave is very weak.

 

Well the gfs doesn't think so, it has been on the hot train to start July off, so we will see.

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55 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Well the gfs doesn't think so, it has been on the hot train to start July off, so we will see.

Relying on the Goofus? :facepalm:

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Well the gfs doesn't think so, it has been on the hot train to start July off, so we will see.

The GEPS aren't quite as warm, and have been scoring better, so who knows.

 Also, do we know when the GEPS is taking over?

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1 hour ago, Mitchg said:

EPS keep the good times going till about day 14. 2nd week in July looks hot. 

#climo

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39 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

#climo

To get halfway thru Meteorological summer relatively unscathed is never a bad thing.

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On 6/21/2017 at 8:12 PM, tombo82685 said:

Yea this is going to turn out wrong. The active pattern may be right as there is fight between ridging to the south and trough to the north. But I just don't see any really sustained heat right now through july 6th. That definitely all can change though very quickly as we are talking a big lead time here. Things looks seasonal to below normal. I was basing the warmth on the MJO wave firing up in phase 1->3 which it looks to do, but the wave is very weak.

 

might of given up on this to quickly, EURO now has a heat wave starting next friday through the weekend. Temps in mid 90s. EPS are a little cooler but would support 90s for atleast one day.

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

might of given up on this to quickly, EURO now has a heat wave starting next friday through the weekend. Temps in mid 90s. EPS are a little cooler but would support 90s for atleast one day.

Just guessin you'd sign up for the ggem fastest outcome. 

Capture.thumb.JPG.a336ccb8340928811316f53c44b8d3b5.JPG

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7 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Just guessin you'd sign up for the ggem fastest outcome. 

Capture.thumb.JPG.a336ccb8340928811316f53c44b8d3b5.JPG

I Would, but the Bermuda high has been the bully this year. I don't expect it's stubbornness to change. Models earlier had a faster front. Now that ridge is flexing its muscles and delays it till monday

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

I Would, but the Bermuda high has been the bully this year. I don't expect it's stubbornness to change. Models earlier had a faster front. Now that ridge is flexing its muscles and delays it till monday

As long as there is ice in Hudson's Bay, we have a fighting chance....

 

ANIM-CMMBCTCA.gif

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Heat wave still there on Euro, thurs to sunday low to mid 90s, enjoy. Though, we are in the ring of fire so from friday on there are storms risks too. 

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On 6/15/2017 at 9:35 AM, tombo82685 said:

After the cool down in the 20th-28th timeframe think we return to more heat somewhere in the last couple days of June or start of july. Mjo going into phase 1-3 are warm for us. Could be an active pattern to depending on where the rough sets up to our nw and where the ridge to the south/sw sets up. Could be a ring of fire type setup if things align right. Do think maybe another cool down in middle of july. 

Shouldn't of backed off on this earlier this week but it is what it is. Looking pretty unanimous we see at least 2 days of potential 90+ Friday and Saturday. It then comes down to timing of fronts. GFS is faster with the front and spares Sunday, while the euro never gets it through. If the euro is correct we are going to have to look out again for wet and stormy conditions. Could be several bouts of severe weather again as we get a ring of fire type setup.  Looking at the eps, they seem to want to agree more with the gfs in bringing in a faster front to cool it down sunday-tuesday .

 

Until then, enjoy the unseasonably cool weather. Phl could come close to a record low wednesday morning if modelling 2m temps are correct.  

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euro still going with heatwave thurs-sun, hottest day is friday with mid 90s possible. T-storms also possible in that timeframe too. 

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