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About Treckasec

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    Tabernacle, NJ

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  1. Just had a surprise cell go overhead. Brought some gusty winds. Came in, and now out with a nearly clear sky.
  2. Maybe some low-topped convection on Sunday?
  3. Very windy right now!
  4. Just had a flash of lightning with thunder here! Just realized there's ~2000 MUCAPE. Wow! Explains the ton of lightning right now.
  5. Mehrginal I think June and July usually have at least one severe day ...
  6. Everytime somebody uses "Modoki" an angel loses its wings. Regardless, I hope we keep the west-central El Niño look.
  7. Hearing some rumbles of thunder as this first line and little thunderstorms approaches.
  8. Just had a little downpour with sun out ... it was interesting to see it raining on one side of the house but not so much on the other.
  9. I wasn't all that big on Thursday's severe potential ... Tuesday doesn't have as strong shear as Thursday, but it seems like we'll actually have CAPE! The shear isn't all that shabby anyways, and the timing is pretty much perfect from what I can tell! 3KM NAM has some cells pop-up in the afternoon. The CAPE looks way too high as per usual with the NAM, but I still think that we should have a good CAPE/shear combo. Not too sure about storms going severe, but we'll see.
  10. I have a question ... Do TTs show the potential for (perhaps strong) convection with numbers at 50 and higher even with poor CAPE?
  11. Day 6 severe ... April Fools? Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sat Apr 01 2017 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output continues to suggest that significant amplification is possible within the upper flow across North America during the middle to latter portion of next week, downstream of a strong mid-latitude Pacific jet which is forecast to begin to shift inland across the Pacific coast. Within this regime, increased phasing of a pair is significant short wave impulses (one turning east of the southern U.S. Rockies and another digging southeast of the Canadian Rockies) is expected to lead to large-scale upper trough amplification over the eastern U.S. by late week. This appears likely to be accompanied by significant surface cyclogenesis from the lee of the southern U.S. Rockies through the Ohio Valley Tuesday/Wednesday, and to the lee of the central Appalachians into northern Mid Atlantic Coastal areas Thursday/Friday. These developments probably will contribute to support for at least some severe weather potential over a fairly broad area of the central and eastern U.S., from the central Plains Tuesday into parts of the lower Ohio Valley and Southeast Wednesday, and the Atlantic Seaboard by Friday. In the wake of a preceding cyclone, uncertain moisture return tempers severe probabilities at this time from the Plains into the Ohio Valley. More substantive moisture return and potential for destabilization is evident across parts of the southeast Wednesday into to Wednesday night. However, greatest confidence in a substantive organized severe thunderstorm risk appears across the Mid Atlantic region on Thursday, coinciding with most significant surface cyclone deepening and strengthening of lower/mid tropospheric wind fields. This may include southerly 850 mb flow strengthening to 50-70 kt, contributing to strong to extreme low-level shear supportive of considerable thunderstorm wind damage potential, along with a risk for tornadoes.
  12. These pictures are really awesome looking! Enjoy the storm!
  13. That's probably small hail and not sleet
  14. it was mostly hovering around freezing but it is now 30 degrees and things are freezing over. It was freezing rain for a bit but is transitioning to sleet for now.
  15. I think I'm about toast here for snow Occasional wind gusts that aren't mixing to the ground but are very loud ...