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  2. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Haven’t really looked at the threat for beginning of Marc today, , but looks like 18z took a step in the right direction. Some of the gefs ind looked ok. I’ll be back to discuss the 0z run.
  3. Lawn/Garden/Golf Thread

    JT won the playoff on the first hole. He's won like 7 of his last 31 starts, he is the true world #1.
  4. Yesterday
  5. This still is a decent pattern for March snow as we head towards mid month. Ridge position out west is pretty good, flow is from Canada. Granted this isn't January anymore so it won't be 30s for high but more like mid to upper 40s. You can still see west base block over Hudson Bay with a little bit of split flow look there cutting underneath us.
  6. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    In regards to next weeks system, looking over the eps members that do bring some snow into the area, there is one common theme. While they all have unfavorable primary, they all do agree that to get snow you have to develop the coastal low further south into se va, then blow it up as it hits nj. The earlier coastal formation and strong low would then produce just enough cold air for snow. So you need to rely on, earlier coastal development, sub 982 system off nj, then some dynamic cooling as it pulls colder air into the system.
  7. Lawn/Garden/Golf Thread

    Well JT stiffed an amazing wedge to 2 feet to force the playoff. Weird how his and Luke's putts went in opposite directions of the 16th hole and they were about six inches apart on the same side of the green.
  8. Agreed, and fall back one should be in July
  9. Lawn/Garden/Golf Thread

    Tiger tried, just didn't have the back 9 shots. Pretty exciting finish, not much daylight left if they go to a playoff.
  10. Should really be last weekend in March, too early.
  11. 11th, though you could say temps wise we already did spring ahead
  12. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Isotherm made a thoughtful post on how he sees things shaping up. Was your post really necessary? We get that we we're not within the box in which you place winter, and that you seem to try to take as contrarian a view as possible when there are threats worthy of discussion, but maybe just read more for now until things are more interesting to you. It's getting tiresome for the rest of us.
  13. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    A little early to assume it's a front to back rainstorm. All that's needed is about a 150 mile shift in z500 low path, which is entirely possible at 130hrs.
  14. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    The significant/intense surface storm threat is later this week to me. The overall circulation structure becomes increasingly de-amplified as the block decays and propagates southward. While the airmass is slightly improved for the 5th-7th, it's going to be more difficult to achieve a tucked in bomb in my view. We'll see how things evolve over the coming days. I tend to prefer the initial threat, but the window through March 10th will be favorable.
  15. Don't we spring ahead in 2 weeks?
  16. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    still a solid signal on the eps mean for the 6th-8th period, and some more threats after that too
  17. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    it doesn't, a little to late. Potential is there for sure. Way better airmass to work with too
  18. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Low forming off the coast at 222...based on the 500mb look would likely be tucked on shore as it bombs well see
  19. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    EURO looks real good at 204 hrs for the 2nd system
  20. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    I still think we have opportunities till mid March
  21. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    The models in reality have not been that stellar beyond day 5 this whole cold season. With this upcoming event (there will be an event even if its all rain) the models have been pretty good at showing "something". But other than the OP Euro and/or the Control, they have overall been thermally lacking. I looked back at last year's thread about the March 13thish event and the models were still pretty shaky day 6 to day 7 about how much of an impact it would have on us and that was a large system like this one. So rolling forward into March the idea will definitely be there, but the thermal details will not. Plus there are a number of events where one can dynamically cool to snow (one month where it does work), but those details are tough to peg more than 24 hours in advance and usually only affect a relatively smaller area where the omegas are pretty good. A long winded way of saying, I concur and think come March most threats don't come into focus until we are within 5 days. I'd even say within 3 days.
  22. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    still like week of 3/6 as a better option
  23. But I also think my fear of a shut out and a wasted block is more likely.
  24. I wouldn't follow op runs for threats out past 5 days. I never like the threat this coming week but I think your threat has a shot.
  25. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    We are approaching full moon too.
  26. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Well todays LR GFS and CMC surely do not look good
  27. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    This timeframe atleast has a much better airmass to work with than this garbage storm coming up. Agreed with Charlie, coastal impacts for sure depending on where low forms. Further south worse for coast
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