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  2. Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Through the 19th here in Chester County we are averaging 70.7 degrees (+4.1 above normal) it is unlikely with some cooler days ahead that we will finish in the top 10 warmest Septembers. Below are the top 10 warmest Septembers in the County since 1894 1)1900 - 71.4 2) 1931 - 71.4 3) 1921 - 71.2 4) 1961 - 71.2 5) 2005 - 70.5 6) 1906 - 70.0 7) 1895 - 69.8 8) 1941 - 69.4 9) 1945 - 69.3 10) 1898 - 69.2
  3. Today
  4. Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Another byproduct of the wet summer, last night once again I noticed many fireflies out and about. I don't recall ever seeing them flying past late July, and it's very strange seeing them on the edge of autumn when I normally associate them with the end of spring.
  5. Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Keeping with the theme of higher mins, we are currently at #1, but pretty sure we wont break that this year. Current record is 66.7F in 1881.
  6. Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    If it is any consolation, as far as average temperatures go, it will not be the warmest September on record in PHL. (2018 to date thru 9/19).
  7. Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Nice sunset from United Sports in Downingtown yesterday.
  8. Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    So true! My front patio and walkway was taken out and we are having pavers put down. We need a nice stretch of weather. This project is taking way longer than expected because of the wet weather.
  9. Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Sad when a relatively "nice" stretch of weather has to include days like today with low clouds and patchy drizzle (which the models depicted well yesterday). Can when not string together 3-4 mostly sunny days anymore?
  10. Yup. You still need the air part to work in sync with the water. All that warm water doesn't do anything if the trades do not weaken. Interesting lag.
  11. We have enough warm subsurface water in the Pacific (WWV=volume of water>20C) for a nino but it may not discharge fully this year. There was a multi-year lag before the last nino, and several other multi-year warm-water periods in chart below, the 1980s and early 90s in particular.
  12. Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Oh I would agree with that. Looks like Mitch didn't escape the PHL heat island affect moving to BGM.
  13. Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    It has to be quite high. Just looking at Carl's table of how many top 10s vs bottom 10s monthlies PHL has had since 1990, it is a sea of red with what three blues?
  14. The latest dynamical/statistical models cooled by about 0.1C from last month's outlook for this nino. But, they are fitting the curve much better than they did last season up to this point. BTW looking at a similar lead time (3 months) for winter, the one dynamical model that pegged the JJA enso value on the nose three months in advance was the JMA.
  15. Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    62.8F this morning for the low. Still humid.
  16. Yesterday
  17. Lawn/Garden/Golf Thread

    Mowed tonight as well. I have partial deep green with brown patches.
  18. Lawn/Garden/Golf Thread

    Got a mowing in for Chris, nothing but deep green
  19. All guidance pointing to making his annual migration south around the turn of the month. Will be nice to have an early season cool snap for a change
  20. Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Crazy. I wonder what ratio PHL is at for setting record highs and record high “minimums” vs. record lows and record low “maximums”. So easy to set record high anything’s these days.
  21. Medium - long range tropics

    Ruh Roh Astro. I know, its three weeks away...
  22. Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    This summer has really been rough for heat and humidity, so when it only got down to 72 Tuesday morning I had to wonder how far above normal was that low. Turned out to be +17 above normal! We did actually get a low of 66, but only via cold front later on. Crazy to think that 55 is the average low now...it has not gotten anywhere close to that lately. And to think the other side of normal (17 below normal) would be 38!
  23. It has been awhile since I did this (Thanks Florence). Anyway getting back on track and to piggy back on Tom's post. 00z/19th GEFS Above normal 500mb heights (what else?) return on the 20th as the Southeast CONUS ridge slides offshore and is outlooked to remain there for a while. We have a Gulf of Alaska ridge / Central Conus Trof / East Coast Ridge, so there will be some cooler air arriving in NOAM. Back in the day this was a stable autumn climo pattern because of the ocean waters still relatively warm. Anyway this pattern is outlooked to progress slight east toward the end of the month with the ridge more centered on the west coast and trof in Great Lakes. After the 29th we never get below normal heights, but above normal 500mb heights are gone. From the 29th til the end (October 4th), the WAR flexes every once in a while edging above normal heights back into our area. As September ends:
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