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  2. Since everyone likes to look at these RMM plots, I think the ggem one best fits what I think the MJo is going to do gefs and euro seem to have to much of a bias of curling it back into COD at end of cycle. This wave should get into phase 5 and would think weakly into phase 6 before it starts picking up some better amplitude in colder phases
  3. You are right, in addition to the sleet being treated as 10:1 accumulating all snow when transitioning to or from rain in the time steps seems to be an issue beyond the FV3. Here are the pivotal maps (Kuchera), unfortunately FV3 GFS gone and some of these are 18z Sat, not 12z.:
  4. I'd almost bet it's a tt issue, best probably to look at pivotal maps
  5. I hate to say it but the GEM looks pretty good other than the northern edge not being sharp enough. GFS too far S on N edge. NAM+FV3 too far S on southern edge but that could be a TT issue in part.
  6. Now not only does my tablet spell corrects SSW to SAW (I guess it likes scary movies), but now it also decides to not send responses. Anyway I always forget the SSW criteria for wind reversal, is it 30mb?
  7. Today
  8. Not shown - Mt Mitchell NC - 34"
  9. Here is the 5 day mean from the eps, geps, gefs. You can see they all have a general good agreement on Aleutian low placement as it's further out over the Aleutians. Would like to see that feature comes back southeast to be just under the islands. That in turn would push the ridging more into the west coast. Outside of the geps, the gefs and eps have the epo poleward ridging that goes over the top into AO domain. The geps are a bit further north with the tpv location while the gefs and eps are just north of Hudson Bay. The bigger disagreement to me seems like the energy in the southwest and the orientation of the northern stream trough. The eps hold that northern stream trough back a bit more, a lmost like a phasing look, which pumps the se ridge up. The GEPS have the southwest trough but align the northern stream trough into the lakes more so, which is a colder look for us. The gefs seem to be the coldest, they do have the southwest energy bu are the furthest east with the northern stream trough. IMO the eps do have a bias of digging trough to much into the west, but the gefs also have a cold bias in the east as well. So I would think a mid way point is best and that would be the gep with southwest energy and northern stream trough orientation over the western lakes area. This would allow for cold air to spill over into our area with the thermal boundary being just to our south. This type of pattern looks like an overrunning type setup where you get these big highs to our north that supplies the cold but you have some sw flow aloft. This would be a good look for storms trying to run to our west like to Pittsburgh and we get a front end wintry weather or primary to our west then secondary on the coast.
  10. chescopawxman

    Our 2nd Winter Event?? - November 30 - December 1st

    JB now liking the little event on Thursday with a good chance the snow will carry to the coast with more than NWS offices are now thinking (my P&C has 20% chance)
  11. chescopawxman

    Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    AM low 20.3 of course temps down in the teens in the valley spots in the county. So the 1st 10 days of December here in Chester County PA were our coldest to start December since 2010. Through the 1st 10 days we averaged 34.2 or (2.6) below normal. Back in 2010 we averaged 30.6 over the 1st 10 days of the month
  12. The 22/23rd looks like a big cutter to me. It would be after that as the epo dump starts to spread out across northern tier
  13. Yeah, I'm seeing a couple of chances just before the 25th, and a few just after the 25th. I know its too soon to get my hopes up.
  14. To sum it up, look for an increase in high latitude blocking once after dec 23rd in particularly the ao and epo domains. NAO I'm not seeing much from and I think the pna will bounce around once we get better tropical forcing.
  15. This is at 10mb off the gefs, but the mean has a wind reversal out in Gigi land, with several ens members showing it too. Though, until I see a robust wave 2 signal, I'm questioning the SSW.
  16. The MJO forcing still looks hostile to me till about new years, then we should start seeing the forcing aspect lean colder. IMO any sustained cold prior is strat driven.
  17. An old forecast rule of thumb for Philadelphia was if the snow got to Roanoke ( am assuming they got some snow), the snow got to Philly. So prior to Sunday, that rule worked 10 out of 11 times in this sample of events.
  18. Looks like a bit of a gradient pattern sets up arond Christmas. Ensembles agreeing on -epo look, but the orientation of that will determine where the cold goes first. Usually it's west of us, but it's a big difference if it's plains vs west coast. West coast would bring more se ridge look and we would ride the line more. Plains would be better. Also, do to the strat warming starting to take place they are also bringing the TPV back over to our side of the globe again. Both EPS and GEFS Put the TPV just north of Hudson Bay with strong warming going across the pole from the poleward epo ridge. The NAO domain looks pretty bleak in my eyes right now as the poleward configuration should send the tpv towards greenland.
  19. definitely a possibility. It looks stormy as we get into somewhat of a gradient pattern
  20. So... I see hints of a chance at a white Christmas. It's a possible strong maybe at this point? 😵
  21. Chubbs

    Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Fox hunt, Fair Hill, Md
  22. phillysports11

    Eagles adding players for Non - playoff push?

    His upside is there, needs a off season to prepare instead of going to PT.These previous off season he focus was to get his knee healthy.Now that his knee is good this offseason will be huge for him, focus 100% on football.
  23. eastonwx

    Eagles adding players for Non - playoff push?

    FWIW, Wentz stats for this season (thus far): 21 TD, 7 INT, 70% completion%, 102 passer rating not bad coming off ACL. If not mistaken, today is one year since he tore his ACL and LCL. I would argue he may have come back a bit early. Also, can we stop calling those quarterback keeper plays where Wentz rolls out like an option play and he subsequently gets smacked? I feel his upside is worth investing in.
  24. tombo82685

    CFS, JMA, EURO, GGEM weeklies thread

    week 1 -1 week 2 +4 week 3 +2 week 4 +1 week 5 +1 week 6 -1
  25. Yesterday
  26. so some possible sneaky snow thursday before the downpour
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