00z Sunday run
GEFS Barney II surge of below normal 850mb temp anomalies begins around Noon on the 12th, peaks morning of the 13th. Remaining below normal thru the 17th. Weekend aftershock more north than on Thursday. Above normal anomalies arrive on the 18th (two days earlier) with near to above normal anomalies persisting through the end of its run on the 25th. The back end is up for conjecture, but the front end is reaching modeling skill.
GEPS Barney II surge of below normal 850mb temp anomalies begins around Noon on the 12th, peaks morning of the 13th. Remaining below normal thru the 16th. Above normal anomalies arrive on the 17th (a day later) with above normal anomalies persisting through the end of its run on the 25th.
EPS Barney II surge of below normal 850mb temp anomalies begins around Noon on the 12th, peak morning of the 13th. Remaining below normal thru the weekend (strongest of aftershock for next Friday/Saturday vs other models), then near to above normal 850mb anomalies thru the end of its run on the 24th.
While all the models outlook a Scandinavian ridge at the end of their outlook, the PV retreats to near Alaska and thwarts any ridge bridge from occurring. The Aleutian low is either too north (EC), not there (GGEM) or replaced by deep low and trof over Alaska and its gulf (GEFS).
This morning's NAEFS starts to roll over to warm confidence 11/18-11/25 losing the bitter coldness of this upcoming week.
Today (00z Sunday run)
GEFS Below to near normal 850mb temp anomalies last throughout its run (28th) except for one day wonders on the 15th, 19th & 21st. This looks to be in response to a more -NAO in its outlook period beyond day 7.
GEPS Below normal 850mb temp anomalies prevail (except for 15th) into Sunday the 17th, then near to above normal anomalies until Saturday the 23rd. Then anomalies bandy back/forth centered close to near normal thriugh the end of its run on the 28th. The end of the persistent above normal anomalies are two days earlier than on Sunday.
EPS 850mb Thermal pattern similar to the GEPS except below normal 850mb anomalies arrive a day earlier, on the 22nd, then near or below thru the end of its run on the 27th. EPS & GEPS look very vanilla beyond day 10. The 12z EPS came in colder for Thanksgiving Week.
GEFS return to cold is more stout -NAO driven, EPS cold is more +PNA/Aleutian low driven, GEPS -NAO is about as strong as the GEFS, but its more Pacific flow air. -NAO is never any models strong point, so I would wait until this gets within day 9 to know confidently. It is hard to say about the GEFS NAO bias as it has been negative when the NAO has been positive and positive when the NAO has been negative. So this month it has had a negative bias so far.
This morning's NAEFS 11/21-11/28 is most confident of near normal temperatures, so a cool down (last three days added?) trend.