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  2. 21 as well. I don’t drop that well when there is a wind. My spot is a radiation area
  3. Today
  4. A very impressive November cold outbreak! Today's high of just 32.0 exactly makes this the 2nd earliest sub freezing day in the Chester County PA 126 years of local records dating back to 1894. The previous earliest sub 32 day was the 30 degree high back on November 11. 1987. Additionally this morning's low of 19.1 broke the old elevation record (1983-Present) of 20.0 set in 1996. This also marked our 3rd record low in the last 5 days. Looking ahead another cold shot this weekend and no real warmups to above normal that may last through the end of November. We have a good chance to record our 1st below normal month since last November 2018. That month we ended up averaging out at 3.1 degrees below normal - through today we are at 3.8 degrees below normal.
  5. To be frank, the eps seem like the odd man out after that run. Will be interesting to see what they show tonight. It looks like the big difference between the eps and the other 2 is the handling of the low hgts in siberia/Alaska. EPS have the Aleutian low, while the geps and gefs are displaced much further west, more of a dateline trough. This in turn pushes the ridge out west further offshore and allows more of a -pna. Strictly just using the mjo as a guide, the eps slower speed and wanting to curl into COD (which I don't believe) may be a reason why its could be deepening the trough in the east. As it has this is phase 2 by the end of the period which is a colder phase for the east compared to 3. Like I stated before I like a cold shot near Thanksgiving. Right now the kelvin wave is flying, which is typical of them. It entered phase 8 today, supposed to slow down a bit in phase 8/1.By the end of the ensemble period we should be near phase 3 entering DEC which would give more merit to the gefs and geps side of things IMO. If we do get a legit -nao, things will be cooler in the east, but I'm not sure I'm buying that deep of a trough eps are showing yet
  6. Gefs do appear to be rushing the -PNA...here's how the d10+ trended the past 3 days. Showed similar look 3 days ago as above and has been slowly building that ridge out west.
  7. Yesterday
  8. In terms of the stratosphere, I think the gefs are rushing it to quickly. They are the most bullish out of all the models plotted. I have access to euro strat stuff and it's no where near the gefs look by day 10. So I would think as it gets closer it continues to back off. They all do agree though on a strong wave 1 hit to the PV that weakens it greatly. The gefs may be right in the end, but are rushing it IMO
  9. EPS are starting to show some potential next weekend for something. Would like to give it a few runs since that was some big changes at h5 this run, but if that is correct expect frozen precip chances to start going up
  10. Would like to see these changes stick for a few runs before getting exciting, but man that was a shift in major hemispheric players from 0z to 12z. More Aleutian low, which really pops the pna out west. Better -nao look too, thats a pretty decent look for some fun and games. Thats a cold flow right out of Canada, combine that with blocking over the top and a nice ridge out west. I said this last week and I'll hammer it on top of Gigi's head, you pop the Aleutian low, forget about trying to put a ridge into the east. The 0z run of the eps did have some signs of below normal hgts but you can see how you put the Aleutian low there how it really pops the pna out west. I think that is a common theme this winter somewhere around the west coast. The sst's say it should be as well as ridging into Alaska.
  11. this makes sense, given the Aluetian low/Scandinavian Ridging set up. this could be a pretty good winter.... buckle up
  12. 11/12 update Mount Pocono - 12, ties record (1911) Record low max list for today: Philadelphia - 35, ties record (1911) Allentown - 35, old record 36 (1995) Pomona - 37, old record 39 (1968) Trenton - 35, old record 36 (1986) Mount Pocono - 23, old record 26 (1942/1934)
  13. Yeah I can be wrong on multiple social media platforms at the same time woohoo!
  14. He got a smart phone and learned to send a text message. Now he is paying for model data?! No stopping him now!
  15. Of all the years to have to do a full scale Reseed/overseed. Wish I had done it a few weeks earlier giving things a little longer to take root and spread. These last few days really wiped out vegatation. Looks more like December outside.
  16. On wxbell. In reality once one gets beyond 240hrs, it’s science fiction often. I just like to drive myself nuts saying, hey it’s not the same as it was three days ago. Heck the EPS was not the same as it was 12 hours ago.
  17. At 4:15 PM today, I have a DP of 10. Oh is it gonna be cold tonight...
  18. Big cold shift in eps from 0z just saw this on twitter haven’t dissected h5 but by looking at those changes looks like More pna ridging and nao blocking
  19. I'm very sorry for your loss, Tony. My cats are family to me and it's always agonizing when one passes.
  20. 00z Sunday run GEFS Barney II surge of below normal 850mb temp anomalies begins around Noon on the 12th, peaks morning of the 13th. Remaining below normal thru the 17th. Weekend aftershock more north than on Thursday. Above normal anomalies arrive on the 18th (two days earlier) with near to above normal anomalies persisting through the end of its run on the 25th. The back end is up for conjecture, but the front end is reaching modeling skill. GEPS Barney II surge of below normal 850mb temp anomalies begins around Noon on the 12th, peaks morning of the 13th. Remaining below normal thru the 16th. Above normal anomalies arrive on the 17th (a day later) with above normal anomalies persisting through the end of its run on the 25th. EPS Barney II surge of below normal 850mb temp anomalies begins around Noon on the 12th, peak morning of the 13th. Remaining below normal thru the weekend (strongest of aftershock for next Friday/Saturday vs other models), then near to above normal 850mb anomalies thru the end of its run on the 24th. While all the models outlook a Scandinavian ridge at the end of their outlook, the PV retreats to near Alaska and thwarts any ridge bridge from occurring. The Aleutian low is either too north (EC), not there (GGEM) or replaced by deep low and trof over Alaska and its gulf (GEFS). This morning's NAEFS starts to roll over to warm confidence 11/18-11/25 losing the bitter coldness of this upcoming week. Today (00z Sunday run) GEFS Below to near normal 850mb temp anomalies last throughout its run (28th) except for one day wonders on the 15th, 19th & 21st. This looks to be in response to a more -NAO in its outlook period beyond day 7. GEPS Below normal 850mb temp anomalies prevail (except for 15th) into Sunday the 17th, then near to above normal anomalies until Saturday the 23rd. Then anomalies bandy back/forth centered close to near normal thriugh the end of its run on the 28th. The end of the persistent above normal anomalies are two days earlier than on Sunday. EPS 850mb Thermal pattern similar to the GEPS except below normal 850mb anomalies arrive a day earlier, on the 22nd, then near or below thru the end of its run on the 27th. EPS & GEPS look very vanilla beyond day 10. The 12z EPS came in colder for Thanksgiving Week. GEFS return to cold is more stout -NAO driven, EPS cold is more +PNA/Aleutian low driven, GEPS -NAO is about as strong as the GEFS, but its more Pacific flow air. -NAO is never any models strong point, so I would wait until this gets within day 9 to know confidently. It is hard to say about the GEFS NAO bias as it has been negative when the NAO has been positive and positive when the NAO has been negative. So this month it has had a negative bias so far. This morning's NAEFS 11/21-11/28 is most confident of near normal temperatures, so a cool down (last three days added?) trend.
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