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  2. GooFuS: 50% accurate 50% of the time. The poster child of consistency. From 12z to 18z 😛
  3. Sweet I'll hope for deep powder that week! I dont like traveling in the winter for fear of missing out on a storm (an I alone there?) But if travel involves an area with better odds for snow, an exception can always be made
  4. Coastal flood warnings are now in effect for Delaware Bay and the ocean front. A pair of moderate tidal flooding events are forecast for the daytime high tide cycles on Sunday and Monday.
  5. There remains quite the qpf gap for PHL between the European and UKMET. This isn’t a la la land difference, we are within 60hrs. I’ll use my dad’s if it was snow analogy; we’d be talking the difference between a barely advisory event and an approaching double digit snowfall.
  6. Every few days energy is ejecting out of the SW closed low, if the eastern trough can sharpen more to the west, it's a good setup for EC storms. As of now, the trough axis is too broad and far east, at least on 12z gfs, to see energy phase below us. More of a NNE setup. If it pans out this way, we get active northern stream clipper types with brief warm sector surges, light rain followed by a cold front. Maybe a southern stream storm spits some moisture into a marginally cold airmass but without a phase its likely weak and sheared. Even with a phase you'd need a stout -NAO and or confluence from a 50/50 to keep it from cutting It's still an interesting setup that has potential.
  7. Through yesterday halfway through November our average temp is 40.5 - if the month ended today it would be the 22nd coldest November since Chester County PA records began 126 years ago...in looking ahead I see very few above normal temp days over the remainder of the month. Giving us an excellent shot at at top 10 coldest November on record IMHO and of course our 1st below normal month since November 2018. For those interested I am planning on posting my Chester County winter forecast this weekend on both twitter and here.
  8. Why not start early with that well respected MET JB at Weather Bell stating he sees an Ohio valley to Northern Mid-Atlantic snow storm and of course cold air for early Turkey Day week. Just thought I would document this in case we want to give "kudos" to JB" for your older posters you will remember those days and posts on some of the old forums. Enjoy the weather it's the....
  9. The NAM & EPS are tripping over each other to get last place. Looks like the NAM (oh it handles early season coastals qpf terribly) with its boffo 1.07" may have already won last place. Both are making the GFS look like a qpf genius (so far).
  10. Pretty significant wave 1 predicted by NASA/EC models, so cooling trend for Thanksgiving week has legs. But you know what is leading the pack with the greatest wave 1 hit after Thanksgiving to the 10mb winds....
  11. (00z Wednesday run) GEFS Below to near normal 850mb temp anomalies last throughout its run (28th) except for one day wonders on the 15th, 19th & 21st. This looks to be in response to a more -NAO in its outlook period beyond day 7. GEPS Below normal 850mb temp anomalies prevail (except for 15th) into Sunday the 17th, then near to above normal anomalies until Saturday the 23rd. Then anomalies bandy back/forth centered close to near normal through the end of its run on the 28th. The end of the persistent above normal anomalies are two days earlier than on Sunday. EPS 850mb Thermal pattern similar to the GEPS except below normal 850mb anomalies arrive a day earlier, on the 22nd, then near or below thru the end of its run on the 27th. EPS & GEPS look very vanilla beyond day 10. The 12z EPS came in colder for Thanksgiving Week. GEFS return to cold is more stout -NAO driven, EPS cold is more +PNA/Aleutian low driven, GEPS -NAO is about as strong as the GEFS, but its more Pacific flow air. -NAO is never any models strong point, so I would wait until this gets within day 9 to know confidently. It is hard to say about the GEFS NAO bias as it has been negative when the NAO has been positive and positive when the NAO has been negative. So this month it has had a negative bias so far. This morning's NAEFS 11/21-11/28 is most confident of near normal temperatures, so a cool down (last three days added?) trend. Today (00z Saturday run) GEFS Predominately below normal 850mb temp anomalies through the 20th. A more significant above normal spike on the 21st & 22nd. Then non stop below normal 850mb temp anomalies until mid late May when it will be switched to constant/non stop above normal anomalies. Ok, seriously below through the end of its run on December 1st. Looks +PNA driven, but personally this looks over the top cold. GEPS Above normal 850mb temp anomalies start Sunday the 17th, replaced by below normal anomalies 19th-21st, briefer above normal anomalies later on the 21st, below normal anomalies on the 22nd thru 26th. November 27th-December 1st back and forth favoring below normal anomalies. EPS 850mb Thermal pattern similar to the GEPS. Except non stop below normal anomalies last from the 22nd through the end of its run on November 30th. Initial change to colder next weekend looks -NAO driven, we should be in range for it, after that it looks dollar cost average rather vanilla with a +PNA/+EPO driven air mass. GEFS return to cold is more stout -NAO driven, EPS cold is more +PNA/Aleutian low driven, GEPS -NAO is about as strong as the GEFS, but its more Pacific flow air. -NAO is never any models strong point, so I would wait until this gets within day 9 to know confidently. It is hard to say about the GEFS NAO bias as it has been negative when the NAO has been positive and positive when the NAO has been negative. So this month it has had a negative bias so far. This morning's NAEFS 11/24-12/1 is weakly confident of below normal temperatures. Granted week 2 especially this fall has been more la la land than usual, but that is a consistent outlook given the predicted teleconnections.
  12. UKMET remains deepest, wettest system. Euro PHL qpf about 0.15" Apologies for some repeats on this map, only way to get all of them. For some models, the qpf has more to do with the neg tilt upper low moving thru than the ocean storm.
  13. Here are some of the 06 gefs individuals. A narrow window balancing strength of storm/cold air push and timing.
  14. Here is the final result from Barney II. It took the GFS a full calendar day of model runs to get rid of the egregiously cold forecasts for the middle of this week. I couldnt go back to see completely, but one run did have a decent measurable snow. Then it did a slow creep up toward reality, accurately predicting the Wednesday high about two days out. The Euro for its part never really bit in the new under freezing record, or if it did it, it dropped it well before the GFS. The 128 hours of consecutive sub 528 thicknesses once forecast by the GFS was really 12 hours, would have been better if it dropped the 8 and moved the decimal point over. The 498 predicted thickness for Kansas City, MO was 524. Once we were within 5 days, no model was colder, the ICON is run out of Heisey's house.
  15. Yup too bad its November, classic Mid-Atlantic snow pattern on D8 GEFS with 50/50 and Tenn Valley wave. A solid storm pattern in general with split flow and strong waves in both branches.
  16. Hard not to subdue expectations given climo...some of us probably dont want a storm this early given fear of jinxing real winter. So the board remains gun shy until a euro d5 solution hits us head on.
  17. Man, if this was about 3 weeks later, we would be sounding the alarms... the constant CWB’s (cyclonic wave breaks)over the Atlantic Canadian maritimes is pretty awesome. Constant 50/50 lows reinforcing the NAO Block. That’s a special pattern... Reason on why I say 3 weeks later is just normal climo for the coastal plain. Not getting my hopes up. But that 24TH threat has some support on the ensembles. Long ways to go. But big time miller A on that 18z run.
  18. I’d say prior to Thanksgiving any trend toward colder wont have any MJO resistance. After that the warmer phases would be in mode conflict. Granted a strat hit could rule the roost again as the wave 2 hit did this past week.
  19. 18z gfs is for the weenies. That closed low ejecting out of the SW phases with a northern disturbance and dumps some snow. Still an outlier but potential still in place with the -NAO blocking the flow
  20. This is how you can possibly get it done for something next weekend. GFS illustrates how it can work So first off, we have an expansive block across the top. We can see the low heights into Alaska which is bringing in pac puke underneath the block. We have a split flow out west with a big closed low sitting off the Baja. Downstream this will try and pop a se ridge ahead of any shortwave ejecting out. Underneath the block and north of the great lakes we have a legit, albeit brief, cold airmass that originates from the nw territories. So there is our fresh cold airmass. We then have a strong piece of energy that came off the big closed low off the baja, this piece of energy is over new mexico. We also have a large 50/50 low that is helping to suppress height rises from the diggign energy in the southwest and off the baja Next time period, we still have our alaskan trough which is bringing the pac puke in. We have are expansive block across the top holding in 50/50 lows. We still have out closed low trough sitting off baja trying to initiate a se ridge. The brief cold shot from the nw territories is swinging through the northeast with a good cold airmass. This is helping to fight off any height rises trying to occur in response to the strong piece of energy in the sourthern plains. You can see if the -nao wasn't there this storm would be a cutter all the way as the heights out ahead of this want to rise. The closed low swinging acrss the northeast is supressing the heights along the east coast and that will act as our new 50/50 low caught under the block. We also have a decent ridge spike along the west coast. It's not in a good spot for a snow track as it would argue for a storm to cut. With the 50/50 low caught underneath the block it will force the low to the south of it and not allow it to cut to the north. We can see the main players now, block across the top. Big 50/50 low caught underneath the block suppressing heights preventing the low ejecting out of the southern plains from cutting to the lakes. Key is timing the energy ejecting out with the low swinging through the lakes. Closer together they are, better chance the storm ejecting out stays underneath us. If the 50/50 low gets way out ahead of this, we will lose our cold airmass as pac puke is waiting to eject in. It will also give a pathway for the low ejecting out of the plains to come west too. In general, it's a period of interest. Chances aren't great right now, but it's not a 0%. If we had a more expansive area of cold and not pac puke waiting to eject in, I would be a bit more optimistic. The chance is there, and this is how you can get it done.
  21. It is about the sunsets, not sunrises to me. So it depends on where in the time zone. You are right about Maine, but Minneapolis sunset is about the same as Philadelphia.
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