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  2. chescopawxman

    Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    AM low 20.3 of course temps down in the teens in the valley spots in the county. So the 1st 10 days of December here in Chester County PA were our coldest to start December since 2010. Through the 1st 10 days we averaged 34.2 or (2.6) below normal. Back in 2010 we averaged 30.6 over the 1st 10 days of the month
  3. The 22/23rd looks like a big cutter to me. It would be after that as the epo dump starts to spread out across northern tier
  4. Yeah, I'm seeing a couple of chances just before the 25th, and a few just after the 25th. I know its too soon to get my hopes up.
  5. To sum it up, look for an increase in high latitude blocking once after dec 23rd in particularly the ao and epo domains. NAO I'm not seeing much from and I think the pna will bounce around once we get better tropical forcing.
  6. This is at 10mb off the gefs, but the mean has a wind reversal out in Gigi land, with several ens members showing it too. Though, until I see a robust wave 2 signal, I'm questioning the SSW.
  7. The MJO forcing still looks hostile to me till about new years, then we should start seeing the forcing aspect lean colder. IMO any sustained cold prior is strat driven.
  8. An old forecast rule of thumb for Philadelphia was if the snow got to Roanoke ( am assuming they got some snow), the snow got to Philly. So prior to Sunday, that rule worked 10 out of 11 times in this sample of events.
  9. Today
  10. Looks like a bit of a gradient pattern sets up arond Christmas. Ensembles agreeing on -epo look, but the orientation of that will determine where the cold goes first. Usually it's west of us, but it's a big difference if it's plains vs west coast. West coast would bring more se ridge look and we would ride the line more. Plains would be better. Also, do to the strat warming starting to take place they are also bringing the TPV back over to our side of the globe again. Both EPS and GEFS Put the TPV just north of Hudson Bay with strong warming going across the pole from the poleward epo ridge. The NAO domain looks pretty bleak in my eyes right now as the poleward configuration should send the tpv towards greenland.
  11. definitely a possibility. It looks stormy as we get into somewhat of a gradient pattern
  12. So... I see hints of a chance at a white Christmas. It's a possible strong maybe at this point? 😵
  13. Chubbs

    Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Fox hunt, Fair Hill, Md
  14. phillysports11

    Eagles adding players for Non - playoff push?

    His upside is there, needs a off season to prepare instead of going to PT.These previous off season he focus was to get his knee healthy.Now that his knee is good this offseason will be huge for him, focus 100% on football.
  15. eastonwx

    Eagles adding players for Non - playoff push?

    FWIW, Wentz stats for this season (thus far): 21 TD, 7 INT, 70% completion%, 102 passer rating not bad coming off ACL. If not mistaken, today is one year since he tore his ACL and LCL. I would argue he may have come back a bit early. Also, can we stop calling those quarterback keeper plays where Wentz rolls out like an option play and he subsequently gets smacked? I feel his upside is worth investing in.
  16. tombo82685

    CFS, JMA, EURO, GGEM weeklies thread

    week 1 -1 week 2 +4 week 3 +2 week 4 +1 week 5 +1 week 6 -1
  17. Yesterday
  18. so some possible sneaky snow thursday before the downpour
  19. tombo82685

    CFS, JMA, EURO, GGEM weeklies thread

    week 1 +pna/+epo/+ao/+nao. Normal hgts, flow from OR week 2 neutral pna/+nao/-ao/neutral epo. Abv normal hgts, flow from OR week 3 -epo/-ao/-enao/-pna. Gradient look to the pattern with a bit of se ridge as cold dump is to our west. Abv normal hgts, flow from OR week 4 neutral pna/-epo/-ao/-enao. Still a bit of a se ridge look but not as strong as week 3. Main cold dump in the plains week 5 -enao/-epo/+pna/-ao. Strong Aleutian trough, mean trough in the east. Normal hgts, flow from US/Canada border week 6 +epo/+pna/-ao/-enao. Strong Aleutian trough, mean trough in the east. Below normal hgts, flow from Canada
  20. The euro had some light precip too. Some lgt snow north and west of town
  21. phillysports11

    Winter Storm Threats (Beyond Day 6).

    Nam12 showing something for Thursday,interesting.
  22. You've inspired me, Tony. Apparently, this was the 12th 11.5" snowfall in Richmond history. Looking at the historical weather data spreadsheet that's floating around out there on the interwebs... January 23-24, 1940--21.6"--PHL received a trace January 27-29, 1922--19.1"--PHL received 11.8" February 10-11, 1983--17.7"--PHL received 21.3" December 22-23, 1908--17.2"--PHL received 6" February 11-14, 1899--16.3"--PHL received 18.6" March 5-7, 1962--15.2"--PHL received 6.8" January 4-5, 1980--14.9"--PHL received 5.2" January 25-27, 1966--14.8'--PHL received 4.2" March 1-2, 1980--13.0"--PHL received 2" February 6-7, 1936--12.6"--PHL received 5.6" December 8-9, 2018--11.5"--PHL received ZERO. January 22-23, 2016--11.4"--PHL received 25.3" So the answer is, other than 1940, never. Wow.
  23. This is the vort pass on latest euro. It’s over i80 area
  24. I lost the 168hr prog, but the EC looked pretty stable with the low from 144 hours inward. The one change one could see is a trending toward a stronger northern stream suppression as we came closer in time. That was a bit of a see-saw.
  25. I don't know that, but one foot snows are rare in Richmond period according to this article: https://www.richmond.com/weather/this-was-richmond-s-biggest-snowstorm-so-early-in-the/article_ce67059a-573f-55d7-8aba-5c238f440a10.html Philadelphia had 6" of snow from that December 1908 storm.
  26. 0.3" was updated ( a rare 0 forecast resulting in measurable) and it is now in the system: 2018-19EPS.GEFS Snow.xlsx
  27. It’s the vort that swings through. Euro has it tracking under ya but not a ton of precip. Gfs is further north and still not much precip
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