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  2. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Some decent hits on the eps for that 2-4th time frame. The signal im seeing now is some sort of bowling ball/Miller B set up during this time frame. Then an as we see the ridge pop out west later on, that would be our Miller A look. Long ways away... let’s just get through this weekend.
  3. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Whatever the outcome it looks like a pretty potent storm (975 mb) off Jersey coast with a huge transfer of energy offshore between the 192-216 hr frames on the 12Z Euro.
  4. Winter Banter Thread

    Still hoping for my first cross-country skiing opportunity this winter. Hopefully, there's still a big enough (5"+) snowstorm hiding in this winter's bag.
  5. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Weenie control snow map is out there , way too early to figure out this puzzle
  6. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    The only way this happens is the 50/50 low squashing the hgts along the coast. The 0z run that low was much closer and less of a ridge also helped too. Regardless if this doesn’t work I think we have chances right through to mid month
  7. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    The upper air for the Euro is just ugly. You really need that upper air low to dig a south. But even the whole run no western ridge popping yet. But this is just speculation as we have to wait a bunch more model runs to come in to see how this all plays out. Just a lot of moving pieces to this puzzle.
  8. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Track does matter because what closes off is the s/w associated with the low pressure. Those ridges and troughs and 50/50 low placement will all determine that
  9. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Also, if you get that system underneath you for March 2nd I would say a high chance it is a snow event. That would mean you have a strong block to your northeast.
  10. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Its not really track as much as It is whether we can get a closed off bombing ULL at our latitude and close enough to us.
  11. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    For the system around March 2nd Yea cold air could be an issue. That’s why you need the right track. After that though, assuming ensembles are correct you will have the cold air. Also, with that block in January you probably would be in a suppressive pattern
  12. Today
  13. Just a convoluted mess and I know many disagree with me, but the lack of cold air is going to be an issue. I think this block is just showing up a bit late. Wish it was January instead of march.
  14. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    What is really cool is at 168-180 hours it looks like a basic short wave and rain maker, however suddenly you can see the massive block just slow everything down and you get this large closed off storm. Pretty awesome evolution. God I love blocks in March. If that initial shortwave was traveling farther South I think it could have closed off in a perfect spot. Would be the type of event where we have temps in the 50s and rain but suddenly it transfers into a blizzard.
  15. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    The 12z EURO cuts off and bombs a big ULL at 200 hours. Kind of like April 97 but much farther N. If we could get thst baby to form farther S that would be one helluva doozy. Maybe with the block that just might happen.
  16. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Thought I saw a couple of flurries....
  17. Thanks, we can stop with this one and continue with the second one centered on tomorrow. I think with the last one on the weekend, we can start with the 00z run tonight (23rd/00z).
  18. Which probably means near normal highs on non precip days and below normal highs on precip days. This looks like a stock market retest of the lows, so the bull stratospheric market will start going from here: (P.S. Our flux capacitor is broken).
  19. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    .08" of rain so far today Temp 41.0. MTD rain now at 5.54" +2.72"
  20. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    I totally agree with your comment. Not sure if you are familiar with the roads in Delaware, but RT. 141 is a nightmare, potholes everywhere...
  21. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    These temperature swings are also rough on the roads.
  22. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    This is off one of the hits on the eps members. But you can see the low gets to about our latitude out west, but due to the ocean low backing southwest over the atlantic, that block forces the low out west to move under us
  23. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    The ridge isn't good, but you can make it work if you can properly place the 50/50 to the north. So then you get a low to chicago or so then bring it southeast as it feels the influence of the 50/50 low. Just look at how the euro handled it last night. You amplify the low a bit more and relax the flow from the 50/50 low and you have a snow storm
  24. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Take a look at the UKIE @ 144. What I would root for from that point on is for some embedded lows to shoot E to knock down the ridge and then have it so there is a shortwave that eventually comes E. If the trough heads E too fast I just think the ridge and the pattern isn't set up properly for a snowstorm. Not impossible just my opinion.
  25. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Yea on the cmc that northern low compresses the flow to much and causes that southern low to scoot right out.
  26. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Tom. The 12z CMC is kind of interesting to me. It shoots out the N branch out ahead of the southern. There is energy in the SW that eventhally comes E. It forms a low too late, but IMO this is what wed need to see happen. Having the.block is all fine and dandy, but if we dont get the timing of the shortwaves down it is all for naught. Reminds me of the Dec 30 2000 storm. Anyone into wx back then? It was the first storm that I started reading wx models and forums. There was talk of a major NAO block forming. It looked like a major event was going to happen with the phasing of the S and N branches. The S one eventuallt scooted E and then a slow moving ULL dug far enough S to spawn a low that clipped us.
  27. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Thats why it's dependent on how strong and where that ridge forms and where the 50/50 low forms, like I said early. It's not a slam dunk look. It can happen though if things fall right.
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