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  1. Today
  2. big shift in 18z euro towards ggem. This is out to hr 90, lots of precip still to come. Snowing from city on nw
  3. Yesterday
  4. Would anyone here know how I can adjust barometer reading on Davis Vue running on Weatherlink? I seem to be reading about 2 millibars too high (per CWOP analysis).
  5. euro won't be like ggem. To much disconnect between s/w and trough. Since last night the trough has trended broader, need it more amplified
  6. Intertesting to see what the euro does, looks similar to GEM at hr 48
  7. can see why the ggem is robust, sharper trough that phases a bit better with that southern s/w
  8. I’d be Leary of that Friday wave gfs has. Looks like it’s the only model with it. Could be pure gfs fantasy bs
  9. Ukmet at hr 96, looks decent. Can see the elongated low offshore in a good spot
  10. Snowing by 96 with a nice moisture plume incoming.
  11. Its obvious why, I'm not blind to that. The 1st follow up wave has a strong high and CAD signature given that lovely jet streak/confluence with the Barney trough. As that quickly slides out, the high follows it, we get a return flow off the ocean by the time wave #2 gets to us. Then to rub salt in the wound a Great Lakes low provides mid level torching southerly flow in anticipation of the strong 3rd wave. Let's see how the ensemble looks compared to op
  12. Thing of beauty (sarcasm). Sub 1000 in position A and its rain after a Barney trough clips us, a follow up wave lifts to our NE, and this, storm #3, stays off the coast.
  13. Follow up system, all southern stream, CAD in place if moisture can advance north quickly enough. Can see how NC/VA can get icy more than us unless the trough lifts out a bit quicker, which it has been trending towards
  14. Just a pic of my backyard right now. There are certain times when it becomes totally alive, and I love it. I think it's awesome that there are 15+ species of bird in this picture: 1 yellow shafted flicker 2 Downy woodpecker 3 red bellied woodpecker 4 red shoulder hawk 5 blue bird 6. Blue Jay 7. Junco 8. Carolina wren 9. Chicadee 10. White throated sparrow 11. Song sparrow 12. Nuthatch 13. Titmouse 14. Cardinal 15. House finch Out of the pic were a coopers hawk, pileated woodpecker, mourning dove and a flyover turkey vulture. Nothing too exotic, but just alive and full of energy
  15. 00z Thursday run GEFS: Mostly Below normal 850mb temp anomalies from thru December 7th (except for 5th). Above normal 850mb temp anomalies December 8th (same) into the 11th (day later). Below Normal 850 temp anomalies 11th thru the 19th (five days longer), then near normal on end of its run on the 20th. Barney peak 13th. GEPS: Same as GEFS through December 12th. Above normal 850mb temp anomalies December 13th-17th (slightly warmer than previous), below normal anomalies on the 18th and near/above anomalies on the 19th & 20th (end of run). Barney peak 12th. EPS: Similar to both through December 12th. Then like GEPS above normal 850mb temp anomalies start on the 13th but end on the 16th, a day earlier. Below 850mb temp anomalies on the 17th-19th (end of run), above approaching. Barney peak 12th. MV site has the MJO in a weakened phase 3 the week starting December 13th. Probably explains the state of flux new found cold next week. This morning's NAEFS 12/13-12/20 is confident of near normal temperatures. NASA & EC progs thru 10 days: Wave 1 amplitude is subsiding, well below normal wave 2 action persists. This is the bias (alot of bias to correct) GEFS MJO. MJO progression without convection would be a muted contribution. Regardless Tom's outlook of jet extension and a MJO phase 3 makes me skeptical of the GEFS's as cold as the eyes can see week 2 projection. 00z Saturday run GEFS: Above normal 850mb temp anomalies from December 8th into early on the 11th. Below Normal 850 temp anomalies 11th thru the 13th (six days shorter than on Thursday), above normal anomalies on 14th & 15th, followed by below normal anomalies later on the 15th thru the 19th, above normal anomalies on the 20th & 21st and then below on the last on the 22nd. Barney peak on the 12th. GEPS: Same as GEFS through December 14th. It s arrival of above normal 850mb temp anomalies is one day later to match the current GEFS. Above normal 850mb temp anomalies through the end of its run thru the 22nd except for the 17th. Barney peak 12th. EPS: Similar to both through December 12th. Above normal 850mb temp anomalies start on the 13th (same as Thursday) and end on the 16th. Below normal 850mb temp anomalies on the 17th-19th (same), then near normal the 20th and 21st. Raging +EPO at end of its run (yeah I know). Trending weaker with Barney peak 12th. MV site has a weaker MJO getting to phases 3 & 4. This morning's NAEFS 12/15-12/22 is pretty confident of near normal temperatures. Looks like it follows up/down/up of EPS. NASA & EC progs thru 10 days: Wave 1 amplitude is subsiding, another hit starts day 10, a predicted wave 2 hit starts, strongest since mid November, but at day 10 it rises to near normal. Something to follow during last third of December. This is the jet extension forecast for the GFS. It is not a surprise the GEFS lost its perpetual cold look and also why wave 1,2 activity is outlooked to increase in the middle of the month.
  16. There is the GFS beyond 84 hours (look at your own risk) and the GFS within 84hrs (hey, I have a clue). Since our low (but not no) probability wagon is tied to the energy moving across SoCal, its the 00z and definitely by the 12z run on Monday that it will be sounding sampled. How much cold air oozes east because of the northern stream, that one should be better sampled earlier, but I would compromise between the GFS & Euro on this nonetheless. It'd be a shocker if the current GFS was not fast enough.
  17. One of these days, they’ll actually let the public get their hands on the euro soundings !
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