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  1. Today
  2. tombo82685
    Gefs mean is 2-2.5 for Philly so I guess the 5” is a bit of an outlier on the op
  3. snowwors2
    I’ve been doing nothing but “toss”ing this entire winter (sorry IrishBri)!
  4. Heisenberg
    Cmc looks better too
  5. tombo82685
    Yup, 5” is my ban post for philly. I would pay though to see Philly at 5 and Paul struggle to get 2
  6. susqushawn
    Agree but the gfs would be a nice surprise, might even ban @tombo82685
  7. js1522
    Quite the split in thermals between the GFS and NAM. I suspect (hope) the NAM is too warm, but I do think we get more sleet than the GFS is showing
  8. susqushawn
    19/7
  9. tombo82685
    We toss
  10. snowlurker
    22/7 in Middletown. Nice and cold and dry.
  11. Allsnow
    Gfs now 5 inches for Philadelphia lol
  12. Qtown Snow
    Looks like Qtown jumped the gun @tombo82685
  13. Qtown Snow
  14. tombo82685
    Probably was going to get started tomorrow mornkng since it doesn’t start till noon or later
  15. snowlurker
    Is someone going to start an obs thread?
  16. snowlurker
    Lots of mixed signals if you ask me. Although I have never taken the time to learn more about them and what they portend, I've read a million comments over the years on American and here. And I gotta say that the mixed signals are reminiscent of the models having a very difficult time resolving a major pattern change. The question is: change to something good or something awful?
  17. Chubbs
    Per the write-up they include CFS, euro, JMA, other models, and statistical tools based on mjo/enso.
  18. chescopawxman
    WXSIM does have that high occurring at 11:55pm so it sees the warmer air coming but does not buy a 37. Based on my experience here....neither do I - if we do put down some frozen we will barely get to freezing at best 33 IMHO....but let's see how it works out - by later tonight the spread may get closer...I suspect the truth is between WXSIM an NWS in this case
  19. tombo82685
    Seems like a copy and paste off the cfs
  20. tombo82685
    yea took them down a bit, solely cause it's a good bit drier this run. Meanwhile gfs has abundance of qpf everywhere
  21. Allsnow
  22. Chubbs
    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/
  23. Yesterday
  24. tombo82685
    that 37 most likely is a night time high as temps rise. I think you get above freezing but won't be till later at night
  25. chescopawxman
    WXSIM with 18z GFS/NAM backing off on the snow but hitting sleet harder - thus reducing snow/sleet totals by about an inch - total now 2" to 3" at most - however as I mentioned early this AM I am not surprised NWS brought the WWA down into Western Chester County with their 4pm update - the fascinating (to me) big battle tomorrow will be on temps - the NWS P&C has me at 37 while WXSIM only 26.....very rare to see that large spread between WXSIM and NWS...who will win the great battle of NW Chesco weather??? stay tuned!! Saturday: Cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then a mix of sleet and snow likely in the afternoon. High 26. Wind south near calm in the morning, becoming 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Saturday night: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy after midnight, with scattered light frost possible. A mix of sleet, snow, and freezing rain likely in the evening, then a slight chance of a mix of freezing rain and sleet after midnight. Low 24, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 15 to 21. Wind south-southwest around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about an inch. Little if any freezing rain accumulation.
  26. Allsnow
    Yeah, eps snow mean goes up last week of January. Looks like some type of swfe again
  27. tombo82685
    This isn't a torch pattern being shown on ensembles, at least yet it isn't. It's also not a shut out pattern for snowfall we are just going to need a bit more luck on our side.
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