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  1. Today
  2. Gefs mean is 2-2.5 for Philly so I guess the 5” is a bit of an outlier on the op
  3. I’ve been doing nothing but “toss”ing this entire winter (sorry IrishBri)!
  4. Yup, 5” is my ban post for philly. I would pay though to see Philly at 5 and Paul struggle to get 2
  5. Agree but the gfs would be a nice surprise, might even ban @tombo82685
  6. Quite the split in thermals between the GFS and NAM. I suspect (hope) the NAM is too warm, but I do think we get more sleet than the GFS is showing
  7. Probably was going to get started tomorrow mornkng since it doesn’t start till noon or later
  8. Lots of mixed signals if you ask me. Although I have never taken the time to learn more about them and what they portend, I've read a million comments over the years on American and here. And I gotta say that the mixed signals are reminiscent of the models having a very difficult time resolving a major pattern change. The question is: change to something good or something awful?
  9. Per the write-up they include CFS, euro, JMA, other models, and statistical tools based on mjo/enso.
  10. WXSIM does have that high occurring at 11:55pm so it sees the warmer air coming but does not buy a 37. Based on my experience here....neither do I - if we do put down some frozen we will barely get to freezing at best 33 IMHO....but let's see how it works out - by later tonight the spread may get closer...I suspect the truth is between WXSIM an NWS in this case
  11. yea took them down a bit, solely cause it's a good bit drier this run. Meanwhile gfs has abundance of qpf everywhere
  12. Yesterday
  13. that 37 most likely is a night time high as temps rise. I think you get above freezing but won't be till later at night
  14. WXSIM with 18z GFS/NAM backing off on the snow but hitting sleet harder - thus reducing snow/sleet totals by about an inch - total now 2" to 3" at most - however as I mentioned early this AM I am not surprised NWS brought the WWA down into Western Chester County with their 4pm update - the fascinating (to me) big battle tomorrow will be on temps - the NWS P&C has me at 37 while WXSIM only 26.....very rare to see that large spread between WXSIM and NWS...who will win the great battle of NW Chesco weather??? stay tuned!! Saturday: Cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then a mix of sleet and snow likely in the afternoon. High 26. Wind south near calm in the morning, becoming 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Saturday night: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy after midnight, with scattered light frost possible. A mix of sleet, snow, and freezing rain likely in the evening, then a slight chance of a mix of freezing rain and sleet after midnight. Low 24, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 15 to 21. Wind south-southwest around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about an inch. Little if any freezing rain accumulation.
  15. Yeah, eps snow mean goes up last week of January. Looks like some type of swfe again
  16. This isn't a torch pattern being shown on ensembles, at least yet it isn't. It's also not a shut out pattern for snowfall we are just going to need a bit more luck on our side.
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